Please Place Evidence of the 7 of 10 Plate Movements Here
Kojima had created small snips of Konstantin's animation of the 7 of 10 Plate Movements.
Here is the full 7 of 10 Animation by Konstantin.
This blog is the place to document ongoing earth changes related to the 7 of 10 plate movements as described by the Zetas.
ZetaTalk: 7 of 10 Sequence
written October 16, 2010
The 7 of 10 scenarios describe plate movements, and for this to occur something has to release the deadlock, the current stalemate where the plates are locked against each other. Once the deadlock is broken and the plates start moving, sliding past each other, new points where the plates are locked against each other develop, but these are weaker locks than the one at present. The current lock, as we have so often stated, is the Indo-Australian Plate which is being driven under the Himalayans. This is no small lock, as the height of the Himalayans attests. Nevertheless, the activity in this region shows this likely to be the first of the 7 of 10 scenarios to manifest. Bangladesh is sinking and the Coral Sea is rising, showing the overall tipping of the Indo-Australian Plate. Now Pakistan is sinking and not draining its floods as it should, while Jakarta on the tongue of Indonesia is also sinking rapidly, showing that the tilt that will allow Indonesia to sink has already started.
Meanwhile, S America is showing signs of a roll to the west. Explosions on islands just to the north of the S American Plate occurred recently, on Bonaire and Trinidad-Tobago, and the Andes are regularly being pummeled. There is a relationship. As the Indo-Australia Plate lifts and slides, this allows the Pacific plates to shift west, which allows S America to shift west also. This is greatly increased by the folding of the Mariana Trench and the Philippine Plate. But it is the Indo-Australian Plate that gives way to incite change in these other plates, and this is what is manifesting now to those closely following the changes. Once the folding of the Pacific has occurred, Japan has been destabilized. We are not allowed to give a time frame for any of these plate movements, but would point out that it is not until the North Island of Japan experiences its strong quakes that a tsunami causing sloshing near Victoria occurs. There are clues that the New Madrid will be next.
Where the N American continent is under great stress, it has not slipped because it is held in place on both sides. The Pacific side holds due to subduction friction along the San Andreas, and the Atlantic side holds due to the Atlantic Rift's reluctance to rip open. What changes this dynamic? When S America rolls, almost in step with the folding Pacific, it tears the Atlantic Rift on the southern side. This allows Africa freedom to move and it rolls too, dropping the Mediterranean floor above Algeria. What is holding the N American continent together has thus eased, so that when the Japan adjustments are made, there is less holding the N American continent in place than before, and the New Madrid gives way. We are also not allowed to provide the time frame between the Japan quakes and New Madrid. Other than the relationship in time between the New Madrid and the European tsunami, no time frame can be given. The sequence of events is, thus:
- a tipping Indo-Australia Plate with Indonesia sinking,
- a folding Pacific allowing S America to roll,
- a tearing of the south Atlantic Rift allowing Africa to roll and the floor of the Mediterranean to drop,
- great quakes in Japan followed by the New Madrid adjustment,
- which is followed almost instantly by the tearing of the north Atlantic Rift with consequent European tsunami.
Source: http://www.zetatalk.com/index/zeta584.htm
Tipping Indo-Australia Plate with Indonesia sinking,
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-23.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-24.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-25.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-26.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-28.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-30.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-31.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-32.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-34.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-37.htm
Folding Pacific
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-33.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-38.htm
http://www.zetatalk.com/info/tinfx351.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-47.htm
South American Roll
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-39.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-40.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-41.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-42.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-43.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-44.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-45.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-47.htm
African Roll
http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-46.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-47.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-48.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-52.htm
Japan Quakes
http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-53.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-54.htm
New Madrid
http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-59.htm
http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-60.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-61.htm
http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-62.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-63.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-64.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-65.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-68.htm
European Tsunami
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-70.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-71.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-72.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-73.htm
http://zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-74.htm
Due to the slowing of the 7 of 10 plate movements by the Council of Worlds the impact of some of the events described above will be lessened.
The Zetas explain:
ZetaTalk: Pace Slowed
Written May 19, 2012
The effect of the thousands of humming boxes placed along fault lines and plate borders can be seen in several incidents that have occurred since the start of the 7 of 10 plate movements. The lack of tsunami during the 7 of 10 sinking of the Sunda Plate is one such example. We predicted at the start of the 7 of 10 scenarios in late 2010 that the Sunda Plate sinking would occur within 2-3 weeks, yet it dragged on through 2011. At the time we had predicted tsunami on the Sunda Plate, in general equivalent in height to the loss of elevation for a coastline. None of this occurred due to the slower pace.
The pace of mountain building in S America, where slowed, has still resulted in rumpling up and down the Andes, and stretch zone accidents likewise in lands to the east of the Andes. The shape of S America has clearly changed. Will the islands in the Caribbean be spared? At some point, as with the magnitude 7.9 quake in Acapulco on March 2, 2012 a significant adjustment will need to occur, and this will include depressing the Caribbean Plate so it tilts, sinking the islands and lands on that portion of the plate to the degree predicted. But the S American roll will likely continue to avoid the magnitude 8 quakes we originally predicted in deference to slow rumpling mountain building. The African roll was anticipated to be a silent roll in any case, so the slowed pace would not affect the outcome.
Will the slowed pace prevent the 7 of 10 scenarios for the Northern Hemisphere? Bowing of the N American continent has reached the point of pain, with breaking rock booming from coast to coast, but still there have been no significant quakes in the New Madrid area. Yet this is past due, and cannot be held back indefinitely. What has and will continue to occur for the Northern Hemisphere scenarios are silent quakes for Japan, which has already experienced drastic subduction under the north island of Hokkaido where mountain building is occurring as a rumple rather than a jolt. However, the anticipated New Madrid adjustment cannot be achieved without trauma. But this could potentially occur in steps and stages such that any European tsunami would be significantly lessened.
All rights reserved: ZetaTalk@ZetaTalk.com
Source: http://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10109.htm
ZetaTalk , Written March 10, 2012
What happens when the pace of plate movement is slowed? The likelihood of tsunami is definitely reduced, as can be seen in the sinking on the Sunda Plate. The sinking occurred, and is almost complete, yet the possibility of tsunami we predicted for various regions on the Sunda Plate were avoided. The height and force of a tsunami is directly related to the degree of displacement in the sea floor, and if this happens in steps rather than all at once the displacement will be less for any given step.
This bodes well for the European tsunami. If the Council of Worlds is still imposing a slower pace on the 7 of 10 plate movements, this tsunami will definitely be lessened. The tear in the North Atlantic will be slight, each time. The amount of water pouring into this void will be less, each time. And the rebound toward the UK will likewise be less, each time. But our prediction is the worst case situation, and it also reflects what the Earth changes, unabated, would produce.
But what does a slower pace do to land masses where jolting quakes are expected? Does this reduce the overall magnitude of the quakes anticipated? Large magnitude quakes result when a catch point along plate borders is highly resistant, but snapping of rock finally results. Usually there is one place, the epicenter, where this catch point resides and a long distance along the plate border where smaller quakes have prepared the border for easy movement. A point of resistance within the body of a plate, such as the New Madrid, can likewise resist and suddenly give.
There is no way to lessen the resistance at these catch points, though the tension that accompanies such points can be reduced so that the quake itself is delayed. What this means for a slower 7 of 10 pace is that large magnitude quakes will be spread apart in time, and their relationship to our predictions thus able to be camouflaged by the establishment. Where sinking (such as the Caribbean Island of Trinidad) or spreading apart (such as to the west of the Mississippi River) are to occur, these land changes will eventually arrive. But like the sinking of the Sunda Plate, a slower pace unfortunately allows the cover-up time to maneuver and develop excuses.
All rights reserved: ZetaTalk@ZetaTalk.com
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Comment by Stanislav on August 17, 2016 at 11:18pm
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Louisiana’s 1,000-year floods inundated 80,000 homes and businesses
16 August, 2016. 4 trillion gallons of water. 20,000 rescues. Worst Louisiana flooding since Katrina.
It is difficult to know where to begin with the historic flooding in Louisiana during the past week. There is the sheer volume of water itself—based on rainfall accumulations, an estimated 4 trillion gallons of rain fell across southern Louisiana from the middle of Thursday through Saturday morning. That is roughly the same amount of water discharged by the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico over the course of 80 days.
Source: waterwatch.usgs.gov
The rains hit hardest just to the east of Baton Rouge in Livingston Parish, which straddles Interstate 12 and is home to about 130,000 people. Some state officials have estimated that as many as 70 percent of the homes and businesses in this parish—more than 30,000 homes—were flooded. Across the state, officials say as many as 80,000 structures may have flooded. Some 20,000 people had to be rescued from flooded homes and vehicles. Very early damage estimates pegged the storm at $1 billion to $2 billion. At least seven people have died.
Area roadways were also hit extremely hard. The state's Department of Transportation and Development estimates that 30 state roads were washed out, and thousands of miles of state roads were under water as water levels rose on Sunday. Some 1,400 bridges will need to be inspected, as well. From Saturday through Monday large chunks of Interstate 10 and 12, which cross the southern tier of Louisiana, were closed due to floodwaters. As of Tuesday morning, parts of Interstate 10 remained closed due to flooding.
What was it?
No major US hurricanes in 11 years. Odds of that? 1-in-2,300.
So what caused this mess? It was an almost-tropical storm. For much of last week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center watched a low-pressure system in the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, which eventually moved inland and slowly tracked westward over Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and then Louisiana, where it eventually stalled out late last week over the southern part of the state. It had a warm core, like the low-pressure center of a tropical storm. However, by the time the storm looked most tropical on satellite, it had moved over land, and it lacked the surface wind speeds of 39mph or greater characteristic of a tropical storm. As The Weather Channel's hurricane specialist Greg Postel described the system, "It wasn't a tropical cyclone, but it was a cyclone that was tropical."Perhaps because it was not named, and with the ongoing presidential election and unfolding drama at the Summer Olympics, the Louisiana storm did not garner a great amount of attention from the greater US public this weekend. But in scope it was easily the worst flooding disaster to hit Louisiana in more than a decade, since Hurricane Katrina crashed through the flood barriers in New Orleans.
During the three-day period from Thursday through Sunday morning, according to the National Weather Service, several locations in south-central Louisiana received in excess of 24 inches of rain. A handful of rivers, including the Amite and Tickfaw waterways, crested well above historical high water marks. The measured rain totals over Livingston and some of the surrounding parishes in southeastern Louisiana were the equivalent of a 1,000-year flooding event. "The observed rainfall totals were quite significant and rare," the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center stated.
The role of climate change
Such storms are not unprecedented. A similar event unfolded in June 2001, when Tropical Storm Allison (which barely met the criteria for a named storm) developed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved inland over the Houston metro area. Six-day rainfall totals for the storm across most of Harris County were 20 to 40 inches, with about half of that coming during a single night and causing catastrophic flooding. Damages were estimated at $5 billion in the densely populated urban area—by far the costliest tropical storm ever to hit the United States.
It is a valid question to ask whether climate change plays a role in these kinds of inland flooding events. Areas of Louisiana and Texas, along the Gulf of Mexico and its rich source of tropical moisture, are already prone to heavy flooding. However, warmer temperatures can help to fuel storms, because warmer air is capable of containing more water vapor than cooler air, and therefore more moisture becomes available to fuel storms over time. This summer's much-above-average temperatures in July and August for the southern United States may therefore have exacerbated some of the flooding in Louisiana. Source: arstechnica.com
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Comment by Kojima on August 15, 2016 at 3:08pm
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* Monitoring of Ground Motion in REV
http://rev.seis.sc.edu/index.html
http://rev.seis.sc.edu/stations.html
[Atlantic Rips]
II.ASCN; Butt Crater, Ascension Island; 7.93 S, 14.36 W
The ground motion pattern changed on 2016/08/13.
[2016/0810 -08/14]
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At least three dead in 'unprecedented and historic' Louisiana flooding
Source: columbian.com
14 August, 2016. At least five people died and 20,000 people had to be rescued from their homes and cars as "unprecedented and historic" flooding swamped Louisiana.
In some areas residents waded through snake-infested waters to reach dry ground.
The slow moving storm brought up to 10 inches of rain in parts of the state on Friday. John Bel Edwards, Louisiana governor, declared a state of emergency, calling the flooding "unprecedented."
"We have record levels of flooding along rivers and creeks," he told reporters during a news conference, urging residents who have been advised to evacuate to leave their homes. The National Weather Service reported Saturday afternoon that the storming had "resulted in catastrophic flash flooding across Louisiana," and was continuing to produce very heavy rainfall.
The threat of heavy rain would expand westward with "at least a slight risk of flash flooding tonight over a large area from the southern plains to the mid-Mississippi/Ohio valleys and even the Northeast," the National Weather Service said. Showers and thunderstorms would continue into Sunday and Monday, it predicted.
Numerous rivers in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi were overflowing their banks. Alabama was also struggling with heavy rainfall. The floods killed at least three people on Friday, media reported. Among them, a man in the Louisiana town of Zachary, near the capital Baton Rouge, drowned trying to escape flood waters, local television station WAFB reported.
"We were walking out and he slipped and fell," his roommate Vernon Drummond told the station. "He went under the water. We tried to save him, but we couldn't."
In Baker, just north of Baton Rouge, 60 people were sleeping at a makeshift Red Cross shelter.Shanita Angrum, 32, said she and her six-year-old daughter had been trapped in their home.
She told the Associated Press: "Snakes were everywhere. The whole time I was just praying for God to make sure me and my family were OK." Source: telegraph.co.uk
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/08/15/five-dead-2000...
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Comment by SongStar101 on August 2, 2016 at 11:20pm
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Wonder if other countries will follow suit?
Australia is going up in the world: Official coordinates will change to reflect how the country moved 5ft north in 22 years
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3718237/Australia-go...
- Australia's tectonic plate moves faster than any other on the planet
- This makes the country shift north by 2.7 inches (5cm) each year
- Since the last time the coordinates were updated in 1994, it moved 5 feet
- Next year, coordinates will change to reflect where it will be in 2020
The Australian plate is the fastest continental plate on the planet, moving northwards and slightly to the east by about 2.7 inches (7cm) each year.
Because of this movement, the continent has shifted by five feet (4.9 metres) over the past 22 years, making the country's co-ordinates slighty out of sync.
To fix this, Australia is going to adjust its official latitude and longitude, putting the majority of the country back into alignment with the world's GPS systems.
The Australian plate is the fastest continental plate on the planet, moving northwards and slightly to the east by about 2.7 inches (7cm) each year. Because of this movement, the continent has shifted by five feet (4.9 metres) over the past 22 years
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One of worst floods hit Penang's Teluk Bahang
18 July, 2016. Teluk Bahang came under knee-deep of water after a continuous downpour from 1pm Monday in one of the worst floodings in years. State Local Government Committee chairman Chow Kon Yeow said lightning storms and strong winds were reported.
“Flood waters rose up to 0.3 meters. “The Penang Island City Council (MBPP) and Drainage and Irrigation Department (JPS) are already in the area to provide assistance and clean up after the flood recedes,” he said. Bernama reports that Teluk Bahang area was been hit by one of the worst flash floods in years due to the heavy rains. The water level in some areas had reached above the knee and some cars had been stuck in the flood.
Locals expressed their worries as some areas had never experienced such a bad flash flood before.
One of the locals met who lived near the Teluk Awak river, Iskandar Hassan, 43, said that the water had risen quite fast and many vehicals had been stranded and water had entered several houses.
"If the rain continues, I am afraid that this will continue to happen throughout the rainy season," he said.
Teluk Bahang assemblyman Datuk Shah Headan Ayoob Hussain Shah when contacted by Bernama said his main worry was that the flash flood was being triggered by the hill clearings.
Chow when contacted said that heavy rainfall up to 190mm had been recorded in Teluk Bahang Dam and high tide had caused the Teluk Awak river to overflow its banks. The flooded areas are along Jalan Hassan Abas and the Penang Island City Council (MBPP) and Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) personnel had been sent to the flooded locations to assist the people. Chow also said that so far the flood had been recorded at 12 inches in certain places and might be higher in some other places as heavy rain was expected to last till late evening. Source: thestar.com.my
Flash floods hit Penang area, including airport
Penang International Airport was hit by flood waters on Monday (Jul 18), after a heavy downpour caused water to seep into the arrivals hall, according to local media reports. Flights in and out of the airport remained operational.
Penang's Teluk Bahang area was hit by one of the worst flash floods in years due to heavy rainfall since Monday morning. The water level in some areas had reached above knee level and some cars were stuck in the flood. Source: channelnewsasia.com
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U.S.
Lassen Peak Is Sinking, and Volcanologists Don’t Know Why
The area of subsidence in the Lassen Volcanic Center (blue) identifying by InSAR data analysis. The larger triangle is Lassen Peak, the smaller triangle is Reading Peak. The box delineates the Lassen Volcanic National Park. WALKER AND OTHERS (2016), JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
29 June, 2016. MOST PEOPLE TEND to think of the Earth’s surface as a static thing. It is solid and persistent … however, that is far from the truth. Images from earthquakes show how land can be broken and buckled with ease during one of these massive seismic events, but the surface can deform in even more subtle ways.
Take the Lassen Volcanic Center (a place near and dear to me). It last erupted in 1915, when Lassen Peak had its small but historically significant blast. After 100+ years, you might not expect that much is currently changing in the area. But data presented in a new paper by Amy Parker and others in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research shows that since the mid-1990s, the whole area has sunk!
The team examined satellite data from 1992 to 2010 and found that an area 30-40 kilometers (19-25 miles) across centered near Reading Peak (see below; just southeast of Lassen Peak) has been sinking at a rate of ~10 millimeters (~0.4 inches) per year. So, over that span the Lassen Peak area has subsided ~18 centimeters (~7 inches).
That measurement wouldn’t be possible without using satellites to detect very minute changes in the Earth’s surface over years to decades—in this case, with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, more commonly known as InSAR. This method uses precise measurements of the Earth’s surface performed by satellites that were captured some time apart and then compares them, looking for where the data (land surface elevation) no longer matches, producing interference in the images. Then these interferences are converted into values of up and down based on the extent of interference. Considering InSAR uses microwaves to determine the elevation, things like cloud cover and night don’t matter when the measurements are being taken. The only trick is you need to have the satellite pass over the same place multiple times to be able to compare the images.
InSAR is advantageous because it can not only measure small changes on the elevation of the Earth’s surface, down to centimeter scale, but also because it can look at large geographic areas. The method can survey wide areas impacted by motion on a fault during an earthquake to see how the land surface has moved. It can examine entire volcanic arcs (or large stretches of them) to see which volcanoes might be showing signs of changes. Of course, our data set is limited due to the coverage of the satellites that can do these measurements (there aren’t many) and the fact that InSAR hasn’t been employed for more than a few decades.
Lassen Peak in northern California. The area around the active Cascade volcano has been sinking since the early 1990s.ERIK KLEMETTI. Source: wired.com
Now, how long has this sinking been happening at the Lassen Volcanic Center? Parker and others looked at land-based geodetic data collected by leveling for the last 70 years and found no measurable evidence for subsidence prior to the early 1990s. Now, it could have been subsiding at a very low rate that wasn’t measured, although the total across that span should have been noticed if it was sinking. So, it seems that this sinking is a (geologically) recent event in the Lassen area.
When you have geophysical data such as this, one thing you want to do is try to model the shape of the area causing the changing of the Earth’s surface. In this case, Parker and others estimate that the source causing the sinking is a singular point (or centered around a point) that is ~8.3 kilometers (5.2 miles) beneath the volcanic center. It isn’t directly under Lassen Peak, but offset to the southeast under some of the more hydrothermally active areas in the Lassen Peak area. It is at a depth that is roughly the same as where we think magma is being stored underneath the Lassen Volcanic Center, so that gives us that first clue to why the area is sinking.
Trying to identify why Lassen Peak and vicinity is sinking is a little tricky. As I just alluded, the most likely culprit is cooling and crystallizing of magma after the 1914-17 eruptions of Lassen Peak. As magma cools, it loses volume, so any new magma that trigger the eruption over 100 years ago may be slowly losing volume.
This can’t alone account for the sinking, especially the timing as it appears to have started over 70 years after the eruption ended. You might expect that the sinking would have happened soon after the eruption ended (because you’ve expelled all that volume of magma and volcanic gas). However, as I mentioned above, Walker and others think that this sinking started only in the early 1990s. So, what else could be helping the subsidence beyond potential cooling of magma?
You can also change the flow of hydrothermal fluids (water heated by magma at depth) underneath the area to prompt subsidence. There is some loose correlation between the times of greater subsidence between 2004-07 and more earthquakes within the area of the hydrothermal system, so there could be connection there. There is even the chance that the M7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992, centered about 840 kilometers (520 miles) away, might have started the ball rolling as that earthquake seems to have triggered a M3.5 earthquake at Lassen within 13 minutes. However, these events are still correlations rather than causations without further study.
That being said, some of the sinking might not be related to the magmatism at the Lassen Volcanic Center at all. Local faults related to the Basin and Range province, where North America is stretching, are causing a deepening basin around the Lassen Volcanic Center and the warmer nature of the crust in the area (thanks to Lassen and friends) might mean this area is susceptible to more sinking compared to cooler areas. Medicine Lake in northern California is one of the other volcanoes in the Cascades that is also sinking. Studies there point the finger at tectonic forces along with cooling of a magma body at depth, so this combination might be a common occurrence in the Cascades.
Now, if you read this and think “huh, sounds like geologists don’t know much about why a volcano subsides”, you’d be right. Although dozens of volcanoes worldwide are subsiding (based on InSAR and other observations), for most we don’t have a good grasp on exactly why. Some have had recent eruptions, others haven’t erupted for millennia. Careful GPS surveys of these volcanoes (in cahoots with InSAR data) are needed to figure out all the vertical and horizontal pieces involved in the subsidence. Maybe then we can parse out each piece—magmatic, tectonic, hydrothermal—and then use these data to tell us about how volcanoes are behaving between eruptions and whether these changes can give us hints as to what might be next Source: wired.com
Sinking Atlantic Coastline Meets Rapidly Rising Seas
Rates of land subsidence, according to new study.
Credit: Karegar et al., "Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: Insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data," GRL, 2016.The 5,000 North Carolinians who call Hyde County home live in a region several hundred miles long where coastal residents are coping with severe changes that few other Americans have yet to endure.
Geological changes along the East Coast are causing land to sink along the seaboard. That’s exacerbating the flood-inducing effects of sea level rise, which has been occurring faster in the western Atlantic Ocean than elsewhere in recent years.
New research using GPS and prehistoric data has shown that nearly the entire coast is affected, from Massachusetts to Florida and parts of Maine.
Land subsidence and sea level rise are worsening flooding in Annapolis, Md., and elsewhere along the East Coast
The study, published this month in Geophysical Research Letters, outlines a hot spot from Delaware and Maryland into northern North Carolina where the effects of groundwater pumping are compounding the sinking effects of natural processes. Problems associated with sea level rise in that hot spot have been — in some places — three times as severe as elsewhere.
“The citizens of Hyde County have dealt with flooding issues since the incorporation of Hyde County in 1712,” said Kris Noble, the county’s planning and economic development director. “It’s just one of the things we deal with.”
On average, climate change is causing seas to rise globally by more than an inch per decade. That rate is increasing as rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more heat, melting ice and expanding ocean waters. Seas are projected to rise by several feet this century — perhaps twice that much if the collapse of parts of the Antarctic ice sheet worsens.
Ocean circulation changes linked to global warming and other factors have been causing seas to rise much faster than that along the sinking mid-Atlantic coastline — more than 3.5 inches per decade from 2002 to 2014 north of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, a recent study showed.
The relatively fast rate of rise in sea levels along the East Coast may have been a blip — for now. The rate of rise recorded so far this century may become the norm during the decades ahead. “Undoubtedly, these are the rates we’re heading towards,” said Simon Engelhart, a University of Rhode Island geoscientist.
Engelhart drew on data from prehistoric studies and worked with two University of South Florida, Tampa scientists to combine it with more modern GPS data to pinpoint the rates at which parts of the Eastern seaboard have been sinking.
Their study revealed that Hyde County — a sprawling but sparsely populated farming and wilderness municipality north of the Pamlico River — is among the region’s fastest-sinking areas, subsiding at a little more than an inch per decade.
Taken together, that suggests the sea has been rising along the county’s shorelines recently at a pace greater than 4.5 inches per decade — a globally extraordinary rate. Similar effects are playing out in places that include Sandy Hook in New Jersey and Norfolk in Virginia, the analysis shows.
Gloucester Point, Va., which is home to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, was also found to be sinking at a similar rate. Scientists there have been “noticing impacts,” said Carl Hershner, a wetlands expert who has worked at the institute since 1971. “Flooding in our boat basin is one piece of evidence.”
An inventory of wetlands and shorelines is being developed by the institute that may help reveal the impacts of subsidence and sea level rise locally. “There’s rather compelling evidence of marshes losing area,” Hershner said.
The main cause of East Coast subsidence is natural — the providential loss of an ice sheet. Some 15,000 years ago, toward the end of an ice age, the Laurentide Ice Sheet stretched over most of Canada and down to modern-day New England and the Midwest. Its heavy ice compressed the earth beneath it, causing surrounding land to curl upward.
Since the ice sheet melted, the land beneath it has been springing back up. Like a see-saw, that’s causing areas south of the former ice sheet to sink back down, including Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.
The data suggests that some land in coastal Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, on the other hand, is rising slightly, although not quickly enough to keep up with the global rate of sea level rise.
The study shows that subsidence is occurring twice as fast now than in centuries past in a hot spot from Fredericksburg, Va. south to Charleston, which the scientists mostly blame on groundwater pumping.
“If you draw down your aquifer, the land above the aquifer kind of collapses,” said Timothy Dixon, a University of South Florida professor who helped produce the study. “If that happens to be on the coast, that can also increase your flood potential.”
In areas south of Virginia, groundwater levels appear to have been recovering this decade as well pumping has been reduced, slowing the subsidence problem. Virginia says it’s working on the problem.
“In most places, you wouldn’t notice it; it wouldn’t matter,” said Jack Eggleston, a U.S. Geological Survey scientists who has researched the effects of groundwater pumping on the region’s topography. “But in terms of practical effects and practical problems, it does matter when you’re right on the shoreline.”
The compounding problems of land subsidence and sea-level rise have been pronounced in states where legislatures led by conservative majorities have been reluctant to discuss sea level rise and have been dismissive of the science behind climate change.
The Tar Heel State’s legislature drew criticism from climate scientists and others in 2012 over a new law that barred state officials from basing regulations on sea-level rise projections until mid-2016.
“There’s a strong level of denial about the existence of the problem,” said Pricey Harrison, a Democrat in the North Carolina assembly who opposed the bill. “You can’t talk about climate change, you can’t talk about sustainability if you want any legislation to move.”
To help win support for the bill from Democrats, it was amended to require the state to refine sea level rise projections that were first published in 2010. After lawmakers approved the legislation, then-Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, allowed it to become law without her signature.
The refined sea level rise projections were finalized and published by an independent science panel last month, warning of heavy impacts on coastal communities.
The science panel report concluded that tides could rise by 6 to 11 inches over 30 years in northern parts of the state if greenhouse gas pollution rates continue, or an inch less than that if they’re substantially reined in. The estimate included projections for land subsidence and rising seas. In the state’s southeast, the panel projected a rise of 4 to 9 inches.
Even without future warming, high tide flooding is already getting worse along the East and Gulf coasts, where subsidence and erosion are rife. The problems become most plainly clear during king tides.
“We can have up to 4-foot tides,” said Christine Voss, a University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ecologist involved with a project that’s documenting the effects of king tides. “People are noticing that these flooding events are occurring more frequently, and perhaps with greater depth of inundation.”
Although the state is barred from basing any regulations on the new projections before the summer, the estimates are available for counties and local cities, which are not directly affected by the 2012 law.
During the decades ahead, those local planners will be grappling with the profound global crisis of sea-level rise — along with natural and human-caused factors that intensify its damages.
By late century, global sea level rise could be so rapid as to make the local effects of subsidence seem trivial, particularly if current pollution levels continue, which recent research has shown could trigger runaway melting in Antarctica.
“Rates of local subsidence may be important now,” said Andrew Ashton, a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientist who researches changes in coastal environments. “But they’d be swamped by sea level rise for most projections by mid-century.”
The challenges that lie ahead threaten to swamp towns, farms and wilderness areas, and to do so more quickly along the Eastern seaboard than in other regions.
For most of the coastline, adapting to the rapid changes ahead may require expensive projects — private and public works that construct or improve coastline defenses, such as seawalls, marshes and oyster beds, or that relocate homes and infrastructure out of harm’s way.
For some communities, that will mean confronting problems that had nary been imagined. For others, it may involve finding news ways to cope with old threats.
“We’re very active and very conscious about our water and where it pumps to, where it drains to,” said Noble, of Hyde County. “It’s just a way of life here.” Source: climatecentral.org
Letter writer: Land subsidence also playing a role in sea-level rise
Letters and columns in The Capital raised alarms about increased "nuisance flooding" in Annapolis due to global warming. But global warming is not the only factor in flooding.
A column (May 15) mentioned subsidence as a factor, but didn't indicate its magnitude. "Chesapeake Bay Land Subsidence and Sea Level Change, An Evaluation of Past and Present Trends and Future Outlook," a 2010 report to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, examines changes for relative sea level and absolute sea level (relative to the approximate center of the earth).
It said satellite data showed "the rate of global sea level change is not uniform (or even positive everywhere) but varies from one region of the world's oceans to another." In some regions, land areas are subsiding, while in others they are undergoing uplift. The report goes on to say that subsidence is due to a number of factors, such as withdrawal of ground water.
A table in the report documents measurements of relative water level, 1928-1999, at five stations in the Chesapeake Bay, including Annapolis. It also lists rates of vertical land movement as measured by GPS, 2001-2005, with large subsidence rates at four of the stations.
The estimated relative sea level mean for Annapolis was about 3.53 millimeters a year; the estimated mean subsidence was about 3.05 mm/year. So the net effect was that the absolute sea level rate of increase was only about 0.48 mm/year. The report draws the general conclusion that "about 53 percent of the relative sea level rise measured at bay water level stations is, on average, due to local subsidence."
This effect is not just local. The U.S. Geological Survey indicates that subsidence has affected much of the land along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Source: capitalgazette.com
Vietnam
Mekong Delta faces worsening land subsidence
A road subsides in Inter-provincial Road 965 in U Minh Thuong district, the Mekong Delta province of Kien Giang.The Mekong Delta region has been facing worsening land subsidence, which has been compounded by the prolonged drought in the region this year.
At the Mekong Delta Forum 2016 recently held in HCM City, economic experts said the region has been experiencing major impacts from climate change and human activity, including land subsidence from three to five centemetres each year.
The increasingly serious land sinkage and landslides in the region are most clearly seen in the southernmost province of Ca Mau. Landslides have taking place at 87 canals for a total length of 18 kilometres and cracks have appeared on around 1,000 kilometres of roads that are in a high danger of subsidence.
In Kien Giang, Ca Mau’s neighbouring province, a buffer zone in Minh Thuan and An Minh Bac communes in U Minh Thuong district has 49 houses destroyed by land sinking, and 11 others developing cracks and facing collapse.
Landslides happened at 11 points with a total length of 350m on provincial road 965. Another eight points face landslide risks.
In order to figure out the reason behind the land sinkage and landslides, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development dispatched a team to the region.
According to the initial assessment from the team, drought already weakened land that suffers pressure from construction and traffic is the main reason behind widespread land-sinking and landslide.
According to the Mekong River Commission, hydroelectricity dams in the upper stream of the Mekong River keeping most of alluvium with an estimate of 65.5 billion cu.m of sediment by 2030 is also a reason leading land loss.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Tran, former deputy chairman of the National Assembly’s Committee for External Relations and senior expert of the Council for National Science and Technology Policy, said the impact of dams to sediment in the Mekong River is tremendous and once all dams go into operation, from one-third to half of the total sediment running down to the Mekong River basin will be retained and that will lead to changes in the topography of the river, river-bed, river-bottom and estuary, and land sinking.
The overexploitation of underground water is the other reason contributing to land sinking and landslide.
According to Nguyen Van Tranh, Deputy Director of the Ca Mau Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, up to 90 percent of people in Ca Mau are exploiting underground water for daily and production use.
At the Mekong Delta Forum 2016, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc asked regional provinces to have the dyke and reservoir planning in a safe and convenient for agriculture and production manner while taking measures to restore coastal mangrove forests. Source: english.vietnamnet.vn
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Africa Roll
Source: en.wikipedia.org
Experts raise alarm over impending earthquake
29 June, 2016. Drillers warn on unregulated activities of practitioners
Experts have warned of an impending damaging earthquake in the South-West region and other parts of the country in the next four years, precisely before year 2020.
In the same vein, the Association of Water-well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) has warned that lack of regulation guiding the abstraction of underground water will induce earthquake and sea water intrusion in the country.
The borehole drillers association said the manner by which people drill underground water without proper regulation and adherence to standard practice in many parts of the country would in a matter of time induce earthquake and sea water intrusion, which could make drinking water difficult to get.
AWDROP National President, Mr. Michael Ale, stated this during a state of nation, water press conference, a quarterly update on the state of water resources in Nigeria meant to educate and sensitise people on the current status of water resources, vis a vis its development, management and issues relating to its institutional arrangement and investment.
According to Ale, AWDROP lamented the many failed borehole projects executed by past governments without proper management procedure for community ownership and sustainability.
He said many of such borehole projects did not last more than a year after commissioning because they were not designed to meet with the current standards and adaptive nature of the needs of the beneficiary community.
While calling on the Federal Government to urgently address the warning on impending earth tremor in Saki, Oyo State, it also observed the indiscriminate drilling practice persistence and the industry being turned into an all comers affairs.
He promised the readiness of the association to partner with state government on rejuvenating and revitalising abandoned borehole projects across the country.
Meanwhile, experts have also warned against some damaging earthquakes that they predicted may affect some parts of the country if the right proactive strategies are not adopted towards preventing the impending disasters.
This warning was contained in a report by Dr. Adepelumi Adekunle Abraham of the Department of Geology, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State after an earth-moving tremor occurred at Shaki town, in the Shaki West Local Government, Oyo State.
Adepelumi, a geologist, who was also instrumental to a similar research after a similar tremor occurred in Abeokuta, Ogun State in September 11, 2009, suggested at the time that the risk of the quake in South-West region was 2.8 per cent in his new report.
Adepelumi’s reports stated, among others: “After the earth tremor of 2009 in southwestern Nigeria that was felt in several towns and villages in Oyo, Osun and Ogun states, a detailed short-term probabilistic earthquake prediction was carried out by our team, our findings indicate the probability of earthquake occurrence in the study area between the year 2009 and 2028 increased from 2.8 per cent to 91.1 per cent.” Source: guardian.ng
Oyo residents flee as 'earthquake' hits more communities
3 July, 2016. Several residents have abandoned their homes in panic following reported earth tremors at Koomi, Medina, Balako, Salam Salam as well as , Dauru-Salam communities in Saki, Oyo State.
NigerianEye gathered that residents fled the communities out of fear of the likelihood of earthquake as the noise being heard from beneath the earth surface was frightening.
Shakiru Adelabu, a furniture maker based in Balako, one of the affected communities, said the noise didn’t start recently, it has been on the increase in the past days. He added that the persistent noise from below the earth surface had led to the departure of a good number of people from Balako and Medina, where the tremor is most noticeable.
“We have been hearing the frightening sound for a while now but it became louder during the week and lot of people decided to relocate out of fear. Some people came from the city to take their people away and they told us it could be an earthquake coming. This made more people to pack their things. The tremor is really frightening and nothing has been done to stop it,” he said.
The Deputy Speaker of Oyo State who is an indigene of one of the communities in the area, Hon. Musa Abdulwasiu, raised an alarm during the week, calling on the state and federal agencies to help profer solution to the tremor. While assuring the people that help will come, he appealed to relevant authorities to act fast to forestal possible dangers.
“ I have been to the affected areas with very senior members of the Geology Department from University of Ibadan. They hinted that there is likelihood of heavy movement of rocks in the water channel beneath the ground in those affected areas. They also advised that evacuation of residents of affected areas is the only solution to tremor and possible earthquake after establishing degree of tremor. Honestly, they told us that no one could ascertain for now the degree of the tremor and whether it will lead to earthquake or not,” he said.
But the Oyo State Government has assured residents that efforts were on to avert environmental hazards. Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources, Chief Isaac Ishola gave the assurance while monitoring the areas affected by an earth tremor in Saki-West Local Government area. He explained that the visit was on-the-spot assessment to ascertain the earth tremor that occurred in some parts of the town and to proffer solutions to forestall the occurrence of natural disaster in the area.
He noted that findings by experts indicated that the earth tremor was a fore-shake, which was not capable of causing the earthquake. Ishola said the state government would liaise with the Federal Government to procure the seismic machine needed to check the gravity of tremor.
But in spite of the assurances, more communities are being deserted in the area as residents of neighboring communities, out of fear, are also leaving their abode to seek safer accommodations farther away from the tremor.
Consequently, communities like Afote, Oba Abimbola, Oke Suna, Ahere Oloke, Aroje and Elegede are daily losing their residents to the ongoing exodus. Spaeking to The Nation about the growing migration, Hon. Jamiu Abdulrasheed, a retired teacher resident in Aroje, said the migration is largely caused by unconfirmed reports that some of the experts who visited the place advised the government to evacuate the people because of a looming danger.
“We are hearing different types of reports. People are spreading a rumor that some of the experts who visited the place advised the government to evacuate the people because of a looming danger. That is why people are running away. But I learnt that our own communities here are not affected. Anyway, I will wait until relevant agencies come here to tell me to move my family,” he said. Source: nigerianeye.com
Nigeria: Earthquake Alert - Govt, States Urged On Redemptive Measures
28 June, 2016. The Nigerian Association of Water-Well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) has called on the Federal Government to take measures that could reduce the effects of the earthquake that has been predicted for Shaki, Oyo State.
Researchers from the Department of Geology, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, led by Dr Adepelumi Adekunle Abraham, had submitted in its report titled 'Preliminary Assessment of Earth Tremor Occurrence in Shaki Area, Shaki West Local Government, Oyo State, indicating an impending 'damaging earthquake' in the next four years.
AWDROP, at a press conference addressed by its National President, Mr. Michael Ale, lamented that lack of Underground Water Abstraction Regulation in Nigeria could easily induce earthquake and sea water intrusion, "hence the need for government to ensure strict compliance in the implementation of code of practice in borehole drilling" in the country.
Ale said his Association had been informed of the salt water intrusion affecting underground water usage and subsidence along the land-ocean boundaries in shoreline areas like Lagos, Port-Harcourt, Warri, Bayelsa and Cross River State and advised the Minister of Water Resources, Engr. Suleiman Adamu, to create an integrated groundwater management modelling tools to improve sustainable management efforts and optimize resources utilization. Source: allafrica.com
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China’s sinking feeling: Soil under Beijing gradually collapsing - study
24 June, 2016. Aside from its unsightly industrial pollution problem, China’s government has another potentially serious issue on its hands - the capital Beijing is reportedly in danger of becoming a massive sinkhole.
A study of the movements beneath Beijing carried out by Chinese academics and a Spanish engineer has revealed that in some parts of the sprawling city soil is falling away at a rate of between 8-11cm per year.
The city center appears to be the worst affected area, with the gradual displacement taking place below many of Beijing’s densely populated residential districts. Carried out using satellite radar technology, the study compared images of the region’s landscape between 2003 and 2011.
Researchers involved in the study say that because of the “overexploitation” or overuse of groundwater, Beijing has been “suffering from land subsidence since 1935.” They are currently assessing the potential threat to buildings and roadways from the earth subsidence. According to the United States Geological Survey, the phenomenon - a sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface - is a growing global problem, exacerbated by human interference involving practices such as drainage of the soil and underground mining.
“We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure in the Beijing Plain,” study authors Chen Mi and Li Xiaojuan told the Guardian.
Chinese media company Sina estimates Beijing uses 3.5 billion cubic meters of water per year, with a significant increase required to sustain it in the future.
China is currently undertaking a $62bn project to divert the equivalent of more than 17 million Olympic sized swimming pools of water (44 billion cubic meters) per year from the Yangtze River to the urbanised north of the country.
The South North Water Transfer Project utilises canals to bring water to “drought-prone”or parched areas in the north, according to a website affiliated to the Chinese government. Source: rt.com
Beijing has fallen: China's capital sinking by 11cm a year, satellite study warns
24 June, 2016. China’s capital is known for its horrendous smog and occasional sandstorms. Yet one of its major environmental threats lies underground: Beijing is sinking.
Excessive pumping of groundwater is causing the geology under the city to collapse, according to a new study using satellite imagery that reveals parts of Beijing – particularly its central business district – are subsiding each year by as much as 11 centimetres, or more than four inches.
The authors of the study warn that continued subsidence poses a safety threat to the city of more than 2o million, with “a strong impact on train operations” one of the predictions.
The study on Beijing’s subsidence has been published in the peer-reviewed journal Remote Sensing and is based on InSAR, a type of radar that monitors land elevation changes. It was written by a team of seven researchers, including three who explained their findings to the Guardian: Chinese academics Chen Mi and Li Xiaojuan, and Spanish engineer Roberto Tomas.
“We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure (eg high-speed railways) in the Beijing plain,” they said in an email to the Guardian. “Hopefully a paper summarising our findings will come out later this year.”
Beijing sits in a dry plain where groundwater has accumulated over millennia. As wells are drilled and the water table drops, the underlying soil compacts, much like a dried-out sponge.
The study finds that the entire city is sinking but the subsidence is most pronounced in Beijing’s Chaoyang district, which has boomed since 1990 with skyscrapers, ringroads and other development. The researchers say the uneven nature of the subsidence in some areas poses risks to buildings and other infrastructure.
Tens of thousands of water wells are thought to exist in and around Beijing, many of them used in farming and landscaping. The state has regulatory power over installation of wells but is inconsistent in applying it, according to one leading Chinese environmentalist.
“There are some rules but the enforcement is doubtful,” said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs in Beijing. Ma said he wasn’t surprised subsidence was relatively high in the Chaoyang district given its rapid growth of recent decades. He expected it to keep moving east as the city sprawled in that direction.
In 2015 China inaugurated a mega-engineering project aimed at mitigating Beijing’s water crisis. The state completed construction of the South-North Water Diversion, a £48bn, 2,400km network of canals and tunnels, designed to divert 44.8bn cubic metres of water to the capital.
Even before the canal began delivering water, Beijing was easing up on some groundwater pumping. In January of 2015 the Chaoyang district announced plans to phase out 367 water wells, reducing the use of 10m cubic meters of underground water.
Experts say it is still too early to know if the canal’s water deliveries will help recharge the aquifer and slow Beijing’s rate of subsidence. In the meantime concerns about impacts to buildings and rail systems continue. To prevent derailments a 2015 study recommended that China ban new water wells near completed high-speed rail lines [PDF].
Other cities around the world are experiencing subsidence caused by excessive water pumping or other factors. Mexico City is sinking by up to 28cm a year and Jakarta is subsiding at a similar rate. Bangkok is dropping annually by as much as 12cm, similar to Beijing, according to the Remote Sensing researcher Source: theguardian.com
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'Clock is ticking' for megaquake in Missouri that could cause 'all hell to break loose' across Middle America
The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long, and experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.- The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long
- Experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi
While San Andreas and Cascadia are well known for their potential to cause a megaquakes, researchers have warned a little known fault in the midwest is also long overdue a tremor.
The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long, and experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.
They claim 'all hell would break loose,' with 715,000 buildings damaged and 2.6m people left without power.
The Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois released a report in 2009, which suggested the effects of a force seven or stronger quake from the fault line.
Amr Elnashai, the study's lead author, wrote 'All hell will break loose.'
The 150-mile (240 km) long fault system, which extends into five states, stretches southward from Cairo, Illinois; through Hayti, Caruthersville and New Madrid in Missouri; through Blytheville into Marked Tree in Arkansas.
It also covers a part of West Tennessee, near Reelfoot Lake, extending southeast into Dyersburg. It is southwest of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.
Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface, researchers believe.
The area has not seen significant earthquakes for more than 200 years.
In the winter of 1811 and 1812 there were three earthquakes of magnitude 7 - as high as 7.7 - and a series of aftershocks across the American Midwest.- WHERE IS IT?The 150-mile (240 km) long fault system, which extends into five states, stretches southward from Cairo, Illinois; through Hayti, Caruthersville and New Madrid in Missouri; through Blytheville into Marked Tree in Arkansas.It also covers a part of West Tennessee, near Reelfoot Lake, extending southeast into Dyersburg. It is southwest of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface.
The results were catastrophic, with the course of the Mississippi being diverted, chasms ripping open, and volcanoes of sand and water bursting through the ground.
According to the Central US Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), earthquakes in the central or eastern United States effect much larger areas than earthquakes of similar magnitude in the western United States.
For example, the San Francisco, California, earthquake of 1906 (magnitude 7.8) was felt 350 miles away in the middle of Nevada, whereas the New Madrid earthquake of December 1811 rang church bells in Boston, Massachusetts, 1,000 miles away.
Differences in geology east and west of the Rocky Mountains cause this strong contrast.
Scientists now estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.0 or larger earthquake occurring in this seismic zone within any 50 year period is 25% to 40%, and say such an earthquake could hit the Mississippi Valley at any time.- HOW BAD COULD IT BE?
Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface, researchers believeThe Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois released a report in 2009, which suggested the effects of a force seven or stronger quake from the fault line.Amr Elnashai, the study's lead author, wrote 'All hell will break loose.'Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region.About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes.Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation, and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines.Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure.Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone.There is extensive damage and substantial travel delays in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue as well as evacuation.Moreover roughly 15 major bridges are unusable.Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced and 2 million people seek temporary shelter.Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount.
James Wilkinson, director of the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), told The Atlantic the greatest threat might come from the Mississippi River newly unleashed from its engineered prison of levees.
'The thing that, to me, makes the river scary is how much industry we have along it: there's power plants, there's chemical plants, there's ports,' he said.
'And the river might change course altogether.'
'So if the levees are already jeopardised either by overtopping or saturation, where the water's been there for quite a while, and then you get a shake to it?
'You know, the river's just gonna take the path of least resistance. And who knows whether that's right through these communities.
'In a massive earthquake we could lose a good part of Western Kentucky, we could lose a good part of Arkansas or southern Missouri.'
'The clock's ticking.'
But not all seismologists agree.
Seth Stein, based in Evanston, Illinois, has researched the fault line for 30 years, and told The Atlantic the warnings were 'dangerous nonsense'.
He set up GPS receivers along the fault line and found the land was moving two millimetres a year, if at all, meaning there is next to no strain within it.
In 1999, FEMA identified four hazards in the United States that, were they consummated in all their destructive wonder, would be worthy of the title 'catastrophic.'
They were: a major earthquake hitting Los Angeles, a major hurricane hitting Miami, a major hurricane hitting New Orleans (check), and a giant earthquake hitting the Central US.
the New Madrid earthquake of December 1811 rang church bells in Boston, Massachusetts, 1,000 miles away.
- THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles. Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region. The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.
A recent study found due to the San Andreas Fault System, the Earth's crust is constantly moving.
It's been thought that large-scale motion has gradually been occurring in the crust that straddles this fault system – now, a new study using GPS data has revealed 'lobes' of movement nearly 125 miles wide.
While the vertical component of GPS data has typically been ignored in tectonic studies on the fault, the researchers say these findings indicate it can be used to improve understanding of how these structures behave.
The crust surrounding the San Andreas Fault in Southern California is moving a few millimetres every year in wide lobes of uplift and subsidence, according to the study.
To differentiate between regional tectonic movement and shorter-scale, local motion, researchers from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa (UHM), the University of Washington, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) analysed data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory's array of GPS instruments.
The instruments are able to detect both vertical and horizontal motions of the crust, whether it be subtle creeping, or large, sudden movements from earthquakes.
Using a comprehensive statistical technique, the researchers discovered a pattern of large-scale vertical motions of the local crust from the data.
This type of movement is influenced by tectonic motion, local surface geology, precipitation, and even groundwater pumping.- PLANS FOR THE 'BIG ONE' Federal, state and military officials have been working together to draft plans to be followed when the 'Big One' happens. These contingency plans reflect deep anxiety about the potential gravity of the looming disaster: upward of 14,000 people dead in the worst-case scenarios, 30,000 injured, thousands left homeless and the region's economy setback for years, if not decades. Julian Lozos, an assistant geophysics professor at California State University, claimed there is a strong chance this quake will coincide with one along the adjacent San Jacinto fault line, which runs through more heavily-populated cities. Both fault lines are shown above Julian Lozos, an assistant geophysics professor at California State University, claimed there is a strong chance this quake will coincide with one along the adjacent San Jacinto fault line, which runs through more heavily-populated cities. Both fault lines are shown above As a response, what planners envision is a deployment of civilian and military personnel and equipment that would eclipse the response to any natural disaster that has occurred so far in the US. There would be waves of cargo planes, helicopters and ships, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, emergency officials, mortuary teams, police officers, firefighters, engineers, medical personnel and other specialists. The response will be orders of magnitude larger than Hurricane Katrina or Super Storm Sandy,' said Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington State Army National Guard.
While the San Andreas GPS data has been publicly available for more than a decade, the vertical component of the measurements had largely been ignored in tectonic investigations because of difficulties in interpreting the noise data,' said Samuel Howell, doctoral candidate at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) and lead author of the study.
This aerial view shows aportion of the San Andreas fault in California Sierra Madre Mountains, midway between Bakersfield and Santa Barbara. Using a comprehensive statistical technique, researchers discovered a pattern of large-scale vertical motions of the local crust from the data
'Using this technique, we were able to break down the noisy signals to isolate a simple vertical motion pattern that curiously straddled the San Andreas Fault.'
Previous models have predicted such large-scale motion, and the researchers say the new analysis has found a pattern of similar magnitude and direction.
This new understanding will help to create seismic hazard estimates as scientists look out for signs of the next big earthquake from the San Andreas Fault.- THREAT OF 'THE BIG ONE'The 'Big One' is a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater that is expected to happen along the San Andreas fault. Such a quake is expected to produce devastation to human civilization within about 50-100 miles of the quake zone, especially in urban areas like Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
And, they say it will allow for more precise mapping of the large-scale motion that comes from the next significant rupture.
'We were surprised and thrilled when this statistical method produced a coherent velocity field similar to the one predicted by our physical earthquake cycle models,' said Bridget Smith-Konter, associate professor at UHM SOEST and co-author on the study.
'The powerful combination of a priori model predictions and a unique analysis of vertical GPS data led us to confirm that the build-up of century-long earthquake cycle forces within the crust are a dominant source of the observed vertical motion signal.' Source: dailymail.co.uk
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* Monitoring of Ground Motion in REV
http://rev.seis.sc.edu/index.html
http://rev.seis.sc.edu/stations.html
[African Roll and Mediterranean Drop]
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[2016/06/01 - 06/22]
IU.ANTO: Ankara, Turkey; 39.87 N, 32.79 E
[2016/06/17 - 06/21]
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