🌍 One Wobble, Two Connected Layers: Plate Movement and Global Weather
An ongoing observation thread for ZetaTalk followers
Initial period: 24 August to 2 September 2026
The daily Earth wobble has been underway for a long time. It did not suddenly begin in August 2026. What stands out in this period is the increasingly visible overlap between two expressions of the same intensified wobble:
- Atmospheric disruption above, including displaced air masses, pressure shifts, heat domes, violent thunderstorms, tornadoes, extreme rainfall and rapid temperature reversals.
- Increasing plate movement below, including compression, stretching, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic unrest and movement along plate borders and ocean ridges.
The purpose of this blog is to keep both layers together. Weather events should not be studied separately from plate stress, and plate activity should not be viewed without considering the daily wobble and its effect on the atmosphere.
The daily wobble and the four Earth faces
The “faces” identify which broad longitude sector is facing the Sun during each part of the daily Figure-8 wobble. They are not separate forces or separate wobbles. They are successive phases of one daily motion.
Pacific / New Zealand Face. Polar Push
The magnetic North Pole is pushed away. A new daily wobble cycle and renewed global stress begin.
India Face. Lean Right
Compression around the Himalayas and the India Plate “Brake” becomes especially relevant.
Italy / Europe Face. Lean Left
The earlier lean reverses. European and Mediterranean circulation and plate loading can change sharply.
Atlantic / Americas Face. Bounce Back
The globe rebounds from the preceding lean, affecting the Atlantic and Americas before the next Polar Push.
Because the atmosphere, oceans and crust respond differently, the wobble does not produce the same effect everywhere at the same moment. One region can experience trapped heat while another receives violent storms or flooding. One plate border can be compressed while a distant ridge or subduction zone releases accumulated stress.
The significant feature is the organized global overlap, not one isolated weather record or earthquake.
24 August: the Pomas tornado during the Atlantic transition
On 24 August, a destructive tornado struck Pomas in southern France at approximately 15:00 to 15:20 UTC. It injured 39 people and damaged about 300 homes. Around 100 homes were reportedly left unsafe or uninhabitable. Winds were estimated above 200 km/h, with later assessments placing the tornado around the EF2 to EF3 range.
The tornado did not form in isolation. Southern France and the western Mediterranean had already experienced repeated heatwaves, drought, very dry ground and exceptionally warm water. The tornado occurred during a larger outbreak involving severe thunderstorms, hail, destructive winds, flooding and tens of thousands of lightning strikes across a corridor extending from Spain and southern France toward Corsica.
Its timing is especially relevant. At approximately 15:20 UTC, Europe was rotating away from the Italy Face Lean Left and into the Atlantic/Americas Bounce Back. This is the part of the daily wobble when the previous lean reverses and Atlantic pressure patterns can shift quickly.
The event therefore fits the following sequence:
European Lean Left → Atlantic transition → collision of warm African and cooler Atlantic air → rotating storms and destructive weather
The tornado was one atmospheric expression of a much wider transition involving trapped heat, sharp pressure changes and rapidly reorganizing air masses.
26 August: the India Plate “Brake” and the Tibet mudslide
On 26 August, a catastrophic collapse occurred directly along the Nepal-Tibet border. Glacier ice, rock, mud and water moved down the mountain system, producing a destructive debris flow and flash flooding through the border region.
The seismic signal was initially reported as an earthquake of about magnitude 5.2. Later analysis identified the signal as being produced by the enormous landslide itself. The essential ZetaTalk question is what destabilized the glacier, rock and water at this precise plate boundary.
ZetaTalk identifies movement of the India Plate as the trigger. The India Plate is being pushed beneath the Himalayas and acts as the “Brake” within global plate movement. When this brake moves, other plates are temporarily freer to adjust.
The location is central to the interpretation. The collapse occurred directly on the India-Tibet plate border, where compression and plate-border trauma would be expected when India is driven farther beneath the Himalayas. This movement destabilized the mountain mass, releasing rock, ice and accumulated water.
The mudslide should therefore be understood as more than a weather-related glacier failure. It marks movement at one of the most important pressure points in the global plate system.
26 to 29 August: the tectonic ricochet
The events following the Tibet collapse help show why the India Plate is described as the Brake.
Immediate response to the west
On 27 August, earthquakes appeared on the western side of the India Plate near Madagascar and the Indian Ocean ridge system. ZetaTalk explained that these were not the expected eastward domino sequence. They were a continuation of the original India Plate movement.
Because the India Plate is large and curves toward Australia, movement beneath the Himalayas can open space on both sides. A void opens to the west in the Indian Ocean near Madagascar, while pressure is also transferred toward the minor platelets east of India.
Later ricochet to the east
On 29 August, additional activity developed across Indonesia and the surrounding collision zones. This was the later west-to-east movement expected from a Domino or Ricochet event.
The sequence was therefore:
- 26 August, India-Tibet border: the Brake moves and the Tibet collapse occurs.
- 27 August, Madagascar side: an immediate western adjustment remains part of the India Plate movement.
- 29 August, Indonesia: pressure transfers eastward into separate minor plates and collision zones.
This was not one simple bounce. It was a chain reaction in which movement at a major continental brake temporarily allowed other plate boundaries to adjust.
The atmospheric side: record heat, violent storms and opposite extremes
While this tectonic ricochet was developing below, the atmosphere above was also showing increasingly extreme displacement.
The pattern was not simply “everything getting hotter.” Hot air was being trapped or driven into unusual regions, while cooler or moisture-loaded air collided with it elsewhere. This created record temperatures on one side of a boundary and violent storms, flooding or sudden cooling on the other.
Records reported on 1 and 2 September
- Southern France: 36.6°C at Les Vans, 36.5°C at Fitou and 35.2°C at Béziers, following earlier September records at Monfort and Trets.
- Balkans: Overnight minimums of 28.3°C at Dubrovnik and 27.0°C at Podgorica. Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia recorded their warmest September nights.
- North Africa: Minimums of 32.4°C at Ouargla, 31.9°C at Touggourt and 31.8°C at El Oued. Records also fell across Tunisia and parts of West Africa.
- Canadian Arctic: Clyde reached 15.4°C near 70°N, setting a September record.
- Siberia: Selagoncy reached 27.8°C and broke its September record immediately after breaking an August record.
- Mongolia: Bayantoorai reached 37.7°C, reported as Mongolia’s highest September temperature.
- South and Southeast Asia: Record maximums and exceptionally high nighttime minimums spread across India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
- Central America: Choluteca reached 39.8°C, reported as Honduras’s highest September temperature.
- South America: Lima recorded a September minimum of 20.4°C while parts of the Amazon approached 40°C.
Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera reported that tens of thousands of records had been broken across more than 220 countries and territories during the opening days of September. The importance lies in the geographical spread. The record pattern extended from Africa across Europe and Asia, into the Americas and high Arctic.
At the same time, the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard brought an opposite extreme to Texas. Some areas received up to approximately 53 centimetres of rain, accompanied by flash flooding, uprooted trees, widespread power failures and a reported wind gust of 145 km/h.
This is the push-pull pattern expected when the wobble disrupts air and water masses:
Trapped and displaced heat in one region → pressure and moisture concentration elsewhere → abrupt storms, flooding and temperature reversals
Plate activity continuing into 2 September
The plate response also continued. The USGS 24-hour feed generated at approximately 15:24 UTC on 2 September listed 19 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater. The most relevant feature was their clustering along ridges, subduction zones and plate margins.
- 22:37 to 23:45 UTC, 1 September. Mid-Indian Ridge: M4.6, M4.7 and M4.6 cluster.
- 00:04 UTC. Papua, Indonesia: M5.6.
- 05:10 to 05:40 UTC. Aleutian Islands, Alaska: four earthquakes between M4.6 and M5.2.
- 06:13 and 06:57 UTC. South Island, New Zealand: M5.3 followed by M5.2.
- 10:54 UTC. South Sandwich Islands: M5.2.
- 12:28 UTC. Offshore Mexico: M5.6.
- 12:32 UTC. Aleutian Islands: M5.2.
- 12:35 UTC. Southern East Pacific Rise: M5.9.
The Mexico, Aleutian and East Pacific Rise earthquakes occurred within approximately eight minutes despite their wide geographical separation. Earlier, three earthquakes had clustered along the Mid-Indian Ridge, followed by activity in Indonesia, New Zealand and the Aleutians.
The developing line can be summarized as:
Mid-Indian Ridge → Indonesia → New Zealand and Aleutians → South Sandwich Islands → Mexico and East Pacific Rise
Mount Sinabung in Indonesia also erupted on 31 August after volcanic seismicity had increased since late July. This adds volcanic pressure release to the continuing Indonesian and western Pacific activity.
The bigger picture
The late-August and early-September events should be viewed as one developing global picture.
Above the surface
- African heat is driven into the Mediterranean and Europe.
- Record warmth reaches Siberia, Canada and the Arctic.
- Warm nights show that heat remains trapped after sunset.
- Colliding air masses generate tornadoes, hail, extreme lightning and destructive winds.
- Displaced water and moisture produce exceptional rainfall and flooding elsewhere.
Below the surface
- The India Plate is pushed beneath the Himalayas.
- Border trauma destabilizes the Tibet mountain system.
- Movement opens space west toward Madagascar.
- Pressure later transfers east through Indonesia.
- Ridge, subduction-zone and plate-margin activity continues into the Pacific and Americas.
These are two connected expressions of the same intensified daily wobble. The atmosphere responds through pressure, wind, temperature and water. The crust responds through compression, stretching, slipping, sinking, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity.
One wobble. Atmospheric disruption above and increasing plate movement below.
What to watch next
The next stage is not to focus on every isolated event. The stronger evidence will come from repeated clusters that reproduce the same relationships:
- plate movement near the India Plate Brake;
- activity west near Madagascar and the Indian Ocean ridges;
- later movement through Indonesia and the western Pacific;
- Atlantic and Americas activity during the Bounce Back;
- European heat or storms during the Italy Face and Atlantic transition;
- same-day overlap between atmospheric extremes and plate releases;
- events that repeatedly cluster within similar UTC windows.
Event time is more useful than the time a report was posted. When adding observations, use UTC wherever possible and include the original source.
Ongoing update and comment format
This blog can serve as a continuing observation thread. Updates may be added to the main post, while members can place new events and pattern observations in the comments.
Suggested format:
UPDATE: [date and time UTC]
Location:
Atmospheric event: heat, storm, flooding, pressure change or temperature swing
Plate event: earthquake, swarm, landslide, volcanic activity, sinking or infrastructure stress
Wobble phase: Polar Push, India Lean Right, Italy Lean Left or Atlantic/Americas Bounce Back
Possible connection:
Source link:
Keeping observations in this format will make it easier to compare one day with another and determine whether the same combined sequence is intensifying.
Sources
- ZetaTalk Newsletter, Issue 1031: https://zetatalk.com/newsletr/issu1031.html
- Pole Shift Ning copy of Newsletter 1031: https://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/zetatalk-newsletter-for-s...
- ZetaTalk daily wobble and four faces: https://www.zetatalk.com/ning/30ju2023.htm
- Pomas tornado report: https://watchers.news/2026/08/25/tornado-in-pomas-injures-39-damage...
- USGS Nepal debris avalanche and flash flood: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-...
- USGS M4.5+ rolling earthquake feed: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/summary/4.5_day.g...
- Extreme Temperatures Around the World: https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social
- North African heat update: https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mujxhuutoc27
- Texas flooding report: https://apnews.com/article/aa5eb54efac7113246603f1c40c1a037
- Mount Sinabung report: https://people.com/mount-sinabung-volcano-in-indonesia-erupts-ash-1...
Research, organization and visual presentation prepared with assistance from ChatGPT.
Views: 4810
Comment
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Comment by Gerard Zwaan 7 hours ago
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UPDATE: 3 October 2026, 21:13 UTC
Location
Kamchatka, southern Mexico, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, the Kermadec region and Banda Sea, alongside extreme heat in parts of Asia and continuing weather developments around North America.Atmospheric event
Pilani, India, reached 41.2°C on October 3, confirmed by India’s weather service as 5.7°C above normal.Maximiliano Herrera also reports 37.9°C at Luang Prabang, described as a national October record for Laos, a minimum of 33.8°C at Das Island in the UAE, and 39.4°C at Serhetabat, Turkmenistan. These additional values and record claims remain attributed specialist reports pending independent station checks.
Conditions are not intensifying everywhere. Hurricane Rachel weakened to 80 mph maximum sustained winds and 977 mb at 21:00 UTC, compared with 85 mph and 973 mb six hours earlier. In southeast Texas, localized heavy rainfall remains a forecast concern, but the latest retrieved NWS discussion reported relatively limited inland rainfall so far.
Plate event
The afternoon and evening extended activity beyond this morning’s Kamchatka–Japan concentration:• 13:51 UTC: M4.5 in the Kermadec region, approximately 453 km deep.
• 17:24 UTC: M4.6 northeast of Lae, Papua New Guinea, approximately 82 km deep.
• 18:12 UTC: M4.9 northeast of Sittwe, Myanmar, approximately 35 km deep.
• 20:00 UTC: M5.1 south-southeast of Vilyuchinsk, Kamchatka, approximately 10 km deep.
• 20:33 UTC: M4.5 southwest of Puerto Madero, Mexico, approximately 10 km deep.Smaller events included M4.4 earthquakes in PNG and the Banda Sea.
The latest Kamchatka M5.1 lies approximately 17 km from October 2’s M5.8, supporting continued activity within the local cluster. Offshore southern Mexico adds activity in a separate region. Their timing does not by itself establish a transfer between plates.
Myanmar remains relevant to the eastern India-margin comparison, but its faulting mechanism is unresolved. The deep Kermadec event likewise does not directly demonstrate surface subsidence.
Kīlauea’s latest bulletin records continuing unrest but lower earthquake counts and inflation than the preceding bulletin, with no reactivation of the September 30–October 1 intrusion.
Wobble phase
Not independently established for this interval. No fixed Italy-facing or other phase timing has been assigned.ZetaTalk connection
ZetaTalk describes an evolving wobble involving irregular movements, regional weather contrasts and plate adjustments. Its January 2025 explanation also proposes a pathway from wobble to plate movement, drooping land and low-pressure storms.The developing sequence remains relevant to examining these proposed connections and the overlapping 7-of-10 / 8-of-10 stages. Today’s observations show recurring seismic activity across several regions and exceptional temperatures in others. They do not yet establish a measured common wobble driver or a land drop preceding the storms.
The working assessment remains MODERATE for multi-day seismic continuity. That describes the recurring activity being tracked; it does not establish the onset or acceleration of continuous continental movement.
Source links
USGS Kamchatka:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tze2USGS southern Mexico:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tze6USGS Myanmar:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzdpUSGS Papua New Guinea:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzdjUSGS Kermadec:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzcmIMD Pilani:
https://city.imd.gov.in/citywx/city_weather_test_try_warnings.php?id=42174Herrera’s Laos report:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwyd7bxdks22Herrera’s Gulf and Asian temperature report:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwyjl7nwsk2mNOAA Hurricane Rachel:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=EP182026NWS southeast Texas:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&site=HGXKīlauea:
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updatesZetaTalk on regional weather contrasts:
https://zetatalk.com/ning/09oc2010.htmZetaTalk on wobble, plate movement and storms:
https://zetatalk.com/ning/31ja2025.htm
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UPDATE: 3 October 2026, 09:50 UTC
Location
Kamchatka and southern Japan, central India, California, coastal Texas and the western Mediterranean.Atmospheric event
The completed NWS climate summary confirms that downtown Los Angeles reached 103°F / 39.4°C on October 2, with a daily-record flag. That is 23°F / 12.8°C above the daily normal, and higher than the earlier interim reading of 102°F.Maximiliano Herrera’s latest reports add October high-minimum records of 23.9°C in Almería, 22.0°C in Tarifa and 24.1°C in Beni Saf, Algeria. These remain specialist reports awaiting matching station and record-history verification. Their publication times should not be mistaken for observation times.
In coastal Texas, the NWS forecasts 1–3 inches / 25–76 mm of rain from Saturday into early next week, with locally higher amounts possible. A frontal boundary, coastal trough or low, and moisture convergence are involved. Elevated coastal water levels could slow drainage during heavy rain. This provides a specific connection between atmospheric conditions, coastal water and flood exposure, although it does not establish a new land drop.
Plate event
Since the previous cutoff of October 2 at 22:45 UTC, the USGS catalogue adds six M4.5+ earthquakes, all around Kamchatka and southern Japan.Four occurred around Kamchatka, including an M5.0 at 02:59 UTC. They lie approximately 11–64 km from the October 2 M5.8 event, making continued local adjustment, including possible aftershocks, an important explanation. Japan added an M4.5 near Ibusuki at approximately 127 km depth and an M4.8 south of Koshima at approximately 37 km depth.
A smaller M4.2 near Parbhani, India, occurred at 04:13 UTC, approximately 16 km deep. Its interior Maharashtra location deserves tracking, but does not by itself establish release along the Himalayan “India Plate Brake.”
The earlier Flores, PNG, Solomon Islands, Fiji and New Zealand activity remains part of the wider sequence. This interval extends that chronology, with the newest larger events concentrated in the northern Pacific.
Wobble phase
Not independently established for this interval. No fixed UTC timing is assigned to the Italy-facing or other proposed phases.ZetaTalk connection
ZetaTalk’s July 2010 explanation describes an evolving wobble with irregular movements and superimposed leans, linking the proposed “rattling” to plate movement. Its January 2025 explanation explicitly connects wobble, plate movement, drooping land and low-pressure storms.These passages provide the framework for examining “separate yet connected” atmospheric and tectonic developments. The present observations establish continuing seismic activity and exceptional weather in several regions. They do not yet supply an independently measured wobble phase or land deformation preceding these storms.
The multi-day sequence remains relevant to the overlapping 7-of-10 / 8-of-10 interpretation. This latest interval supports continued tracking, but adds no measured evidence of accelerating continental movement.
Source links
USGS Kamchatka:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzalUSGS India:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzaxUSGS southern Japan:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tzb5NWS Los Angeles climate summary:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FHM&product=CLI&site=LOXNWS southeast Texas discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&site=HGXHerrera’s Spain and Algeria report:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwxlw6wkq223ZetaTalk, July 2010:
https://zetatalk.com/ning/31jy2010.htmZetaTalk, January 2025:
https://zetatalk.com/ning/31ja2025.htmNWS “current product” links change as newer bulletins are issued. The observations and forecasts above refer to the dated products described in this update.
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UPDATE: 2 October 2026, 22:45 UTC
Location
Global assessment, with particular attention to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Zealand and Kamchatka, alongside contrasting weather developments in California, Texas and other regions.Atmospheric event
The latest observations show persistent heat in one region and concentrated rainfall in another.NWS Los Angeles reports that downtown reached 102°F, approximately 38.9°C, by 12:50 PDT on 2 October, breaking the daily record. Southern California warnings also forecast unusually warm nights, with minima largely in the 70s°F. These nighttime values remain forecasts rather than completed measurements.
In Texas, NWS describes a nearly stationary rain corridor near Highway 281, with occasional rainfall rates of 25–51 mm per hour. A front, a mid-level shear axis and very moist air maintain the rainfall. Less organized rain is forecast afterward, although further flooding remains possible.
The broader temperature picture includes Herrera’s reports of high minima in Palma, Alicante and Nice, continuing heat in China, and a contrasting cooling episode in southern Africa. These remain attributed specialist reports where station intervals and record rankings have not been independently verified. Their publication times must not be treated as measurement times.
Plate event
Pacific activity continued through 2 October. Selected reviewed USGS events include:04:27 UTC. M5.0 south of Fiji, approximately 557 km deep.
04:44 UTC. M5.1 southeast of Gizo, Solomon Islands, 10 km deep.
06:48 UTC. M4.5 northeast of Ruteng, Indonesia, 10 km deep.
11:14 UTC. M5.0 southwest of Panguna, Papua New Guinea, approximately 38 km deep.
13:57 UTC. M5.0 near Inglewood, New Zealand, 10 km deep.
16:34 UTC. M5.8 offshore southern Kamchatka, approximately 29 km deep.The Kamchatka event was followed by nearby earthquakes. Their proximity supports a local aftershock interpretation rather than counting every release as an independent transfer between plates. The deep Fiji event also represents a different setting from the shallow island-arc earthquakes.
The preceding week retains activity across several Pacific systems, Atlantic ridges and southern ocean boundaries. This supports continued multi-system seismic activity, while local sequences remain part of the explanation.
Kīlauea continues summit unrest following the recent intrusion, without a confirmed new fountain episode or new eruption location. Great Sitkin continues slow lava effusion with low seismicity.
Wobble phase
Wobble phase: not independently established for this interval.No fixed Italy Face timetable has been assigned. A changing wobble remains the framework under investigation, but these observations alone do not establish its amplitude, phase or a precise delay between the atmospheric and tectonic layers.
ZetaTalk connection
Separate yet connected through the wobble remains the common-driver hypothesis being examined: adjustment below, atmospheric disruption above.The specific correspondence is continuing activity across multiple tectonic systems alongside persistent heat, warm-minimum reports, concentrated rainfall and regional cooling. ZetaTalk’s Continental Drift discussion connects the proposed daily wobble with Pacific compression and Atlantic separation. Its India Plate Brake explanation remains relevant to regional sequences, but today’s scan does not establish a new ordered Brake/Ricochet response.
The overlapping 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 assessment remains active. ZetaTalk describes the possibility that significant movement continues rather than repeatedly stopping at new catch points. The present evidence supports seismic continuity across successive days. Continuous continental displacement and increasing continental speed require separate measurements.
The working interpretation “We may be at the cusp of tectonic Continental Drift” remains under examination, without an upgrade from this scan.
Pattern status: MODERATE for continuing multi-system activity. WATCH for a specific Ricochet sequence and an independently demonstrated common wobble mechanism.
Source links
USGS global catalogue:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/summary/4.5_week.geojsonKamchatka event:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tz62NWS Los Angeles:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD&format=TXT&version=1&glossary=0NWS Austin/San Antonio:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=TXT&version=1&glossary=0Southern California heat warnings:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Extreme+Heat+WarningHerrera, Mediterranean minima:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwvu3xtyc227Herrera, China heat:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwvqza26os2wHerrera, southern Africa cooling:
https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mwvfbrl6bs2bKīlauea:
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updatesGreat Sitkin:
https://avo.alaska.edu/volcano/great-sitkinZetaTalk, India Plate Brake:
https://zetatalk.com/ning/31ag2026.htmlZetaTalk, 8 of 10:
https://www.zetatalk.com/7of10/7of10-87.htmZetaTalk, overlapping phases:
https://zetatalk.com/newsletr/issue362.htmZetaTalk, Continental Drift:
https://www.zetatalk.com/newsletr/issue827.htm
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UPDATE: 1 October 2026
Earthquake catalogue cutoff: 21:25 UTCLocation:
Indonesia; Japan; Afghanistan and Central Asia; Central America; northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge; southwest Pacific; Hawaiʻi; southern France; Crete; South Central Texas.
Plate event:
The USGS feed contains 20 reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurring after the September 30 cutoff at 17:28 UTC. The largest is M5.6. No new M6+ appears in this interval.
Selected events, with all times in UTC:
• September 30, 21:55. M5.6 southwest of Tamarindo, Costa Rica. Depth 8 km.
• October 1, 00:28. M4.9, northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Depth 10 km.
• 01:29. M5.2 near Baghlān, Afghanistan. Depth 49.6 km.
• 01:31. M4.6 near Luwuk, Indonesia. Depth 116.4 km.
• 07:40 and 10:03. M4.6 and M4.7, northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Depths 10 km.
• 12:27. M5.3 at Yōkaichiba, Japan. Depth 41.6 km.
• 14:19 and 17:37. M5.0 NNE and M4.6 NE of Ruteng, Indonesia. Depths 10 km.
• 19:38 and 20:00. Two M5.1 events southeast of Lata, Solomon Islands. Depths 10 km.Atmospheric event:
France’s warning level has decreased. Météo-France’s October 1 bulletin issued at 14:00 UTC lists no red or orange departments, with ten under yellow thunderstorm vigilance.
Crete adds a substantial new weather development. Severe weather beginning Wednesday night brought flooding, landslides, power outages and school closures. Euronews, citing meteo.gr, reports 174 mm at Tzermiado by Thursday morning since the storm began. A partial bridge collapse at Livadia injured two vehicle occupants.
In South Central Texas, the 18:30 UTC NWS discussion retains a Flood Watch through Friday evening. Thunderstorms had reached the Austin–San Antonio corridor. Further storms are forecast overnight across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains, with widespread totals of 25–102 mm and isolated amounts around 152 mm. These are forecast totals.
NWS Honolulu’s 19:46 UTC discussion reports a persistent south-to-north shower line over Oʻahu. Nolo’s trailing moisture is expected to maintain wetter conditions through Friday, followed by drier trade winds over the weekend.
Volcanic activity:
Kīlauea provides the clearest measured change since the previous update.
HVO’s 19:05 UTC bulletin confirms a shallow, east-west-oriented summit magma intrusion near the existing vents. Activity was strongest between approximately 06:00 and 13:00 UTC today.
The preceding 24 hours brought 98 shallow summit earthquakes, including an M3.4 at 07:52 UTC. Uēkahuna recorded approximately 38.5 microradians of inflationary tilt, corrected for an earthquake-related spike.
After 13:00 UTC, inflation flattened and earthquake activity decreased. Intermittent overflows continued, with at least ten during and after the main intrusion. Webcam comparisons showed no new ground cracking or eruption at a new location.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. Episode 55 high fountaining remains possible. No anomalous activity was reported outside the summit.
Wobble phase:
No precise daily wobble face is assigned. Polar Push, India Lean Right, Italy Lean Left and Atlantic/Americas Bounce Back remain the comparison framework used in this thread.
The event chronology and atmospheric developments can be compared with that framework, but this interval does not independently identify Earth’s orientation or a phase transition.
Possible connection:
The global picture comes first. Indonesia and the southwest Pacific retain recurring activity, while Central America and the Atlantic ridge add observations on other sides of the comparison. The three Atlantic entries are geographically separated and should not be described as one tight local swarm.
Above the plates, the atmospheric record changes: France’s highest warnings have lifted, Crete reports fresh inland flooding, Texas retains an overnight flood threat, and Nolo’s trailing circulation continues to redistribute rainfall around Hawaiʻi.
These are the two layers followed by this blog: plate and volcanic activity, alongside atmospheric disruption. Their timing and geography remain available for comparison without assigning every event the same immediate cause.
ZetaTalk connection:
Within ZetaTalk’s framework, 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 overlap. The July 2024 explanation explicitly describes 8 of 10 as already in process.
ZetaTalk’s Continental Drift discussion describes Pacific compression and Atlantic spreading operating alongside recurring 7 of 10 movements. It also distinguishes continuing continental motion from a single earthquake sequence. Today’s record therefore belongs in that broader comparison, rather than being reduced to the India Plate alone.
For the India Brake and Ricochet assessment, the relevant sequence remains an initiating India/Himalaya movement followed by geographically ordered responses. The Afghanistan event adds to the Asian chronology, but this interval does not identify that initiating movement.
Assessment:
STRONG: A documented local change at Kīlauea, with intrusion, seismicity and deformation measured together.
MODERATE: Continued geographical coverage across the established earthquake watchzones.
NO CLEAR PATTERN: A newly demonstrated India Brake/Ricochet sequence or a specific daily wobble face.
The tectonic Continental Drift assessment remains unchanged. The chronology expands, but this interval does not provide a direct measurement of accelerated continental displacement.
Watch next:
• Indonesia and Banda–Timor: whether activity continues around Flores and the adjoining monitored sectors.
• India/Himalaya, Gulf of Aden and southwest Indian Ocean: retain the search for an initiating movement and subsequent chronology.
• Central America, southwest Pacific and Atlantic ridge: distinguish regional sequences from independent events.
• Kīlauea: renewed deformation, changing vent activity or the onset of high fountaining.
• Europe and Texas: additional measured rainfall, flood impacts and changes in official warnings.Source links:
USGS earthquake catalogue
HVO Kīlauea updates
Météo-France vigilance
Crete flooding report
NWS Austin/San Antonio
NWS Honolulu
ZetaTalk: India Brake and Ricochet
ZetaTalk: Continental Drift and overlapping influences
ZetaTalk: 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 overlap
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UPDATE: 30 September 2026
Location:
Indonesia; southwest Pacific; Japan; Greece; southern France; US Southwest and Plains; Hawaiʻi.Plate event:
The USGS feed generated at 17:28 UTC contains 13 reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurring after yesterday’s 20:30 UTC cutoff. The largest is M5.6.Selected events on September 30, with all times in UTC:
• 02:35. M4.5 SSW of Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Depth 33.9 km.
• 04:48. M5.4, Balleny Islands region. Depth 10 km.
• 05:00. M5.6 south of Yonakuni, Japan. Depth 10.8 km.
• 05:20. M4.6 west of Thívai, Greece. Depth 9.8 km.
• 06:50. M5.0 NE of Tadine, New Caledonia. Depth 10 km.
• 08:15. M5.1 south of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Depth 28 km.
• 10:58. M5.0 north of Kupang, Indonesia. Depth 19.4 km.Catalogue revisions also matter: yesterday’s southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge earthquake is now M5.5, while the Pante Makasar event is now M4.9. These are revised existing events.
Atmospheric event:
Southern France has become a significant European watchzone development.Météo-France’s September 30, 14:03 UTC bulletin lists red rain-and-flood warnings for Gard and Hérault, with a red river-flood warning also covering Hérault. Bouches-du-Rhône is under an orange rain-and-flood warning.
The same bulletin retains a red river-flood warning for Hérault on October 1. The continuing river response must therefore be followed alongside the rainfall itself.
Across the US Southwest, Polo-related weather has produced flooded roads, water rescues and evacuations. On September 29, communities in southern New Mexico were evacuated because of possible dam failure. A threatened failure should not be reported as a confirmed collapse.
WPC’s overnight September 30 discussion described extensive heavy rain across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, with repeated thunderstorms and further flash flooding expected. That bulletin was valid from 04:13 to 09:30 UTC and describes the overnight period.
Nolo has weakened to a tropical storm. NWS Honolulu’s September 30, 14:03 UTC discussion reports outer rain bands affecting Kauaʻi and Oʻahu.
Additional rainfall over the following few days is forecast at approximately 102–152 mm on Kauaʻi, locally near 254 mm, and 76–127 mm on Oʻahu, with higher totals possible over elevated terrain. These are forecast amounts.
Volcanic activity:
The latest Kīlauea daily bulletin retrieved remains September 29, 19:02 UTC.Its 165 cumulative overflows, rapid south-vent overflow cycles and WATCH/ORANGE status are carried-forward observations. No new September 30 overflow total is available from the material checked. Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed in that bulletin.
Wobble phase:
No precise daily wobble face is assigned. The earthquake times and atmospheric developments remain available for comparison with the continuing Figure-8 wobble, but do not independently identify a particular orientation.Possible connection:
For the ongoing ZetaTalk comparison, renewed Banda Aceh and Kupang activity extends the Sumatra–Timor regional record. Tadine and Kokopo continue the southwest Pacific chronology, while Greece adds a Mediterranean observation.Above these plate watch areas, the atmospheric record includes southern France’s flood warnings, inland redistribution of Polo’s moisture and continuing Nolo rain bands.
ZetaTalk describes 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 as overlapping, with Continental Drift operating alongside recurring plate adjustments. The broader comparison includes Pacific compression, Atlantic spreading and Mediterranean stress.
These are geographical and chronological comparisons. No direct connection between the Greek earthquake and French rainfall has been identified. This interval also does not identify a new India/Himalayan initiating movement followed by a complete Ricochet sequence.
Source links:
USGS earthquake feed
Météo-France warnings
AP: Southwest flooding and evacuations
WPC overnight rainfall discussion
NWS Honolulu discussion
HVO Kīlauea updates
ZetaTalk: overlapping 7 of 10 and 8 of 10
ZetaTalk: Continental Drift
ZetaTalk: India Brake and Ricochet
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UPDATE: 29 September 2026, 20:30 UTC
Location:
Indian Ocean and Indonesia; southwest Pacific; Atlantic ridge; Hawaiʻi; northwestern Mexico.Plate event:
The USGS feed generated at 20:30 UTC contains 22 reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurring after the September 28 check at 11:10 UTC. No new M6+ earthquake appears in this interval.Selected developments, with all times in UTC:
• September 28, 14:43. M4.7 WSW of Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Depth 45.7 km.
• September 28, 17:37. M4.8 NNW of Kilmia, Yemen. Depth 10 km.
• September 29, 03:23 and 10:42. M5.3 and M5.0 near Tadine, New Caledonia. Both at 10 km.
• September 29, 12:40. M5.4 SSE of Pangai, Tonga. Depth 10 km.
• September 29, 13:06. M5.6 on the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Depth 10 km.
• September 29, 14:14. M5.0 NW of Pante Makasar, Timor-Leste. Depth 157.8 km.Activity also includes north of Svalbard and offshore northern California.
Atmospheric event:
Polo’s mainland Mexico landfall is now confirmed. The NHC’s September 29, 18:00 UTC advisory places the hurricane just inland east of Guaymas, Sonora, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, 120 km/h, and pressure of 984 mb.A Mexican Navy station at Guaymas reported sustained winds of approximately 72 km/h and a gust of 90 km/h. Forecast rainfall across southern and central Sonora remains approximately 102–152 mm, locally 203 mm, with flooding and mudslide hazards.
Nolo’s influence is shifting toward the western Hawaiian islands. NWS Honolulu’s 18:59 UTC discussion forecasts additional rainfall through Thursday of approximately 76–152 mm on Kauaʻi and Niʻihau, and up to 102 mm on Oʻahu. These are forecast totals, not measured rainfall.
Volcanic activity:
Kīlauea’s September 29, 19:02 UTC bulletin reports 165 cumulative overflows since September 22. Approximately 80 occurred during rapid south-vent overflow and drainback cycles beginning at 05:44 UTC on September 29.Overflows typically lasted 2–5 minutes, with pauses of approximately 5–7 minutes. Summit tilt recorded about 0.3 microradians of net inflation over the preceding day.
The 165 is a cumulative total, not a one-day count. WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. Episode 55 high fountaining remains possible but unconfirmed, with no anomalous activity reported outside the summit.
Wobble phase:
No precise daily wobble face is assigned in this update. The event chronology remains available for comparison with the continuing Figure-8 wobble. Earthquake times and storm tracks alone do not establish a particular orientation.Possible connection:
The wider comparison now includes renewed Indian Ocean and Indonesian activity, continued southwest Pacific earthquakes, and an Atlantic ridge event. Above the plates, hurricane circulation continues to redistribute wind and rainfall.Within the ZetaTalk framework, 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 overlap. ZetaTalk describes 8 of 10 as already in progress, with Continental Drift operating alongside recurring 7 of 10 movements. Today’s task is to track their developing expression across regions.
For the India Plate Brake and Ricochet comparison, the next useful evidence would be a documented India/Himalayan movement followed by an ordered west-to-east sequence. This interval does not identify that initiating movement. Likewise, no specific atmospheric connection has been identified for each individual earthquake.
Source links:
USGS earthquake catalogue
NHC Polo landfall advisory, 18:00 UTC
NWS Honolulu discussion
HVO Kīlauea updates
ZetaTalk: India Brake and Ricochet
ZetaTalk: Continental Drift
ZetaTalk: 7 of 10 and 8 of 10 overlap
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UPDATE: 28 September 2026
Location
Offshore western Canada; New Caledonia; South Sandwich Islands; Indonesia; Philippines; Colombia; Dominican Republic; Fiji; Russia; New Zealand; Hawaiʻi and Mexico.
Plate event
The catalogue checked contains 19 reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurring since the previous update, plus two earlier events newly added to the chronology. No new M6+ event appears.
A new offshore cluster west-southwest of Port McNeill, Canada, includes three September 28 earthquakes:
• 02:53 UTC. M4.9, depth 10 km.
• 04:41 UTC. M5.4, depth 10 km.
• 09:13 UTC. M5.2, depth 10 km.Tadine, New Caledonia, adds six events ranging from M4.6 to M5.3, continuing the sequence following the September 25 M6.6.
The South Sandwich Islands region adds an M5.1 and M4.9, both listed at 35 km depth. Other new entries occur near Sipí, Colombia; Guaymate, Dominican Republic; the Philippines; Fiji; the Kurils; Ossora, Russia; and Hicks Bay, New Zealand.
Two newly identified entries belong earlier in the chronology:
• September 27, 21:13 UTC. M5.0, South Sandwich Islands region. Depth 103.8 km.
• September 27, 21:14 UTC. M4.5 near Naisano Dua, Indonesia. Depth 35 km.These two events occurred before the previous check and are additional catalogue information, rather than new occurrences since that update.
Atmospheric event
Polo remains a major hurricane approaching Mexico.
The NHC’s September 28, 06:00 UTC advisory lists Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, pressure of 954 mb and northward movement at 10 mph.
The mainland Hurricane Warning has been extended to cover Bahía Kino to Huatabampito. Warnings also cover portions of both coasts of Baja California Sur.
The advisory forecasts an approach to western Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28, a crossing of the peninsula that evening, and an approach to mainland Mexico late Monday night or early Tuesday, using Mexican local time. Landfall is forecast, not confirmed in this check.
Forecast rainfall totals are 4–8 inches, locally 12 inches, across portions of Baja California Sur, and 4–6 inches, locally 8 inches, across portions of Sonora. These are forecast amounts, with flooding and mudslide hazards, not measurements of rain already received.
In Hawaiʻi, conditions are easing as Nolo moves farther away. NWS Honolulu’s September 28, 06:51 UTC discussion reports reduced shower coverage and diminishing winds.
High Wind Warnings have transitioned to Wind Advisories in affected areas. The coastal Gale Warning has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory. Hilo buoy seas fell below 10 feet during the preceding local day.
Some exposed locations still had gusts above 50 mph in the afternoon discussion incorporated into the bulletin. Nolo-related moisture could increase showers around Kauaʻi later in the week.
Volcanic activity
The latest Kīlauea daily bulletin retrieved remains dated September 27, 18:50 UTC.
Its 53 cumulative overflows, small south-vent overflows and slight summit deflation are carried-forward observations. No new September 28 overflow total is available from the material checked.
WATCH/ORANGE remains the status in that bulletin, and episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed. The latest retrieved short message predates that daily bulletin, so its eight additional overflows must not be added again to the total of 53.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. The earthquake chronology and atmospheric reports do not independently establish rotational orientation or identify a specific phase.
NWS attributes Hawaiʻi’s easing winds to the weakening pressure gradient as Nolo moves away. This change should not, by itself, be labelled a wobble-phase transition.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, offshore Canada adds a new regional cluster while Tadine continues its established sequence. The earlier Naisano Dua addition extends the Indonesian chronology.
This broadens the geographical record for the interval. However, a connected progression between distant plates is not established by their timing alone.
An India Plate Brake, ordered Ricochet response or transition into the proposed tectonic Continental Drift sequence remains unestablished by these observations. Assessing acceleration also requires comparison over equivalent periods while accounting for concentrated local sequences.
Source links
USGS offshore Canada M4.9
USGS offshore Canada M5.4
USGS offshore Canada M5.2
USGS Tadine M5.3
USGS Tadine M5.2
USGS South Sandwich Islands M5.1
USGS South Sandwich Islands M4.9
USGS earlier South Sandwich Islands M5.0
USGS earlier Naisano Dua M4.5
USGS latest earthquake map
NHC Polo public advisory
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
HVO Kīlauea updates
HVO observatory messages
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10 framework
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UPDATE: 27 September 2026
Location
New Caledonia; Papua New Guinea; Solomon Islands; Chile; Aleutian Islands; China; Hawaiʻi and Baja California Sur.
Plate event
Eight additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes extend the chronology:
• September 26, 21:49 UTC. M4.9, 78 km east-southeast of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Depth 63.6 km.
• September 27, 01:18 UTC. M5.0, 61 km east-northeast of Tadine, New Caledonia. Depth 10 km.
• September 27, 02:22 UTC. M5.1, 90 km east-northeast of Tadine. Depth 10 km.
• September 27, 04:14 UTC. M4.5, 145 km west-northwest of Lebu, Chile. Depth 10 km.
• September 27, 04:59 UTC. M4.9, 159 km east-southeast of Gizo, Solomon Islands. Depth 10 km.
• September 27, 07:48 UTC. M4.6, Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands. Depth 46.5 km.
• September 27, 16:43 UTC. M5.0, 191 km northwest of Oula Xiuma, China. Depth 10 km.
• September 27, 18:30 UTC. M4.5, 78 km north of Daocheng, China. Depth 10 km.The two Tadine earthquakes continue activity following the September 25 M6.6. Kokopo also adds another event to its regional record.
No new M6+ event appears in the interval checked. There are also no additional M4.5+ entries in the previously highlighted Ruteng, Kilmia or North Indian Ocean locations. This does not exclude smaller earthquakes.
Atmospheric event
Nolo is moving farther away from Hawaiʻi, but strong winds remain an observed impact.
NWS Honolulu’s September 27, 18:50 UTC discussion reports gusts of 50–80 mph, approximately 80–129 km/h, at typically windier locations, with the highest readings in Maui County. These are localized gusts, not Nolo’s sustained wind speed or uniform conditions across the islands.
The pressure difference between Nolo and high pressure northeast of Hawaiʻi continues to drive strong winds. The bulletin retains High Wind Warnings for selected areas and a Gale Warning across Hawaiian coastal waters.
Winds are forecast to diminish. Lingering showers affect southeastern and windward portions of the Big Island, while trailing moisture from Nolo may reach Kauaʻi around midweek.
Polo has weakened from its earlier Category 5 intensity. A September 27 report relaying the 09:00 UTC NHC advisory lists Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of 120 mph and pressure of 952 mb. Hurricane warnings cover parts of Baja California Sur, with an approach forecast for Monday, September 28.
The Polo figures remain attributed to that time-specific report. A newer primary advisory was not retrieved in this check.
Volcanic activity
HVO’s September 27, 18:50 UTC bulletin reports 53 cumulative overflows at Kīlauea, compared with 33 in yesterday’s bulletin.
The new development is the appearance of several small south-vent overflows overnight, alongside continuing north-vent activity. Tremor spikes appear associated with strong spattering from the west vent.
Summit tilt has been relatively flat, with approximately 0.4 microradians of slight deflation following the previously reported inflation.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. Episode 55 high fountaining is still unconfirmed. HVO reports no anomalous activity outside the summit and no reactivation of the recent vents 1–6.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. The earthquake chronology, volcanic measurements and observed winds provide separate records for comparison, but do not independently identify rotational orientation or a particular wobble phase.
Nolo’s departure and the continuing winds should not be interpreted as a phase change solely from their timing. NWS attributes the winds to the pressure gradient and terrain effects.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval continues the regional chronology near Tadine and Kokopo. The two China events add observations to the wider Asian record, but do not establish a direct India Plate Brake response.
The clearest changes are continued local earthquake activity, small south-vent overflows at Kīlauea, and strong Hawaiian winds as Nolo moves away.
An ordered Ricochet response, global acceleration or a transition into the proposed tectonic Continental Drift sequence is not established by this interval. Likewise, a lower earthquake count over one interval does not establish that a broader process has ended.
Source links
USGS Kokopo M4.9
USGS Tadine M5.0
USGS Tadine M5.1
USGS Lebu M4.5
USGS Gizo M4.9
USGS Rat Islands M4.6
USGS Oula Xiuma M5.0
USGS Daocheng M4.5
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
Polo’s September 27 advisory report
HVO Kīlauea updates
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10 framework
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UPDATE: 26 September 2026
Location
New Caledonia; Papua New Guinea; Indonesia; North Indian Ocean; northwest of Kilmia, Yemen; south of Africa; China; Hawaiʻi and the eastern Pacific.
Plate event
The strongest development is the reviewed M6.6 earthquake that occurred 80 km east-northeast of Tadine, New Caledonia, on September 25 at 21:23:03 UTC, at a listed depth of 10 km.
The catalogue checked contains 22 M4.5+ events near Tadine, comprising the M6.6 and 21 subsequent earthquakes, including an M5.5. This concentrated local sequence accounts for a substantial share of the 37 additional reviewed M4.5+ events since the previous update.
Other notable additions include:
• September 25, 19:39 UTC. M4.8 north of Ruteng, Indonesia. Depth 14.5 km.
• September 26, 10:53 UTC. M4.7, North Indian Ocean. Depth 10 km.
• September 26, 14:08 UTC. M5.6 east-southeast of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Depth 57.8 km.
• September 26, 16:33 UTC. M5.2 northwest of Kilmia, Yemen. Depth 10 km.
• September 26, 17:50 UTC. M4.6 south of Africa. Depth 10 km.
• September 26, 19:37 UTC. M5.0 north-northwest of Ruteng, Indonesia. Depth 10 km.Two M5.0 earthquakes near Xunchang, China, also appear in the new entries.
Ruteng’s recurrence extends the Indonesian chronology. The North Indian Ocean, Kilmia and south-of-Africa events add observations relevant to the wider Indian Ocean comparison. Their timing alone does not demonstrate a connected transfer of stress.
Atmospheric event
Nolo’s effects now include observed rainfall and strong wind gusts in Hawaiʻi.
NWS Honolulu’s September 26, 15:07 UTC discussion reports that the highest reporting gauges recorded approximately 4 inches, 102 mm, overnight on the Big Island and about 1 inch, 25 mm, on Maui. Gusts exceeded 60 mph, 97 km/h, over the Kohala ridgeline and West Maui Mountains. These are localized measurements, not island-wide totals.
An 18:00 UTC advisory relayed by Maui Now reports Nolo at Category 2 strength, with sustained winds of 100 mph and westward movement at 3 mph after its overnight stall. Further strengthening was forecast.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning remain in the cited report for Hawaiʻi County, with a Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County. Additional rainfall forecasts were reduced in the morning discussion, but flooding remained possible.
Elsewhere, an earlier NHC advisory snapshot at 06:00 UTC listed Polo as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 175 mph and pressure of 911 mb, with a forecast threat to Baja California Sur. Those figures refer specifically to that advisory. A newer Polo advisory was not retrieved in this check.
Volcanic activity
HVO’s September 26, 18:41 UTC bulletin reports 33 cumulative north-vent overflows at Kīlauea, compared with 22 in the bulletin cited previously.
The activity was intermittent. An approximately 20-hour pause ended at 13:36 UTC on September 26, followed by seven overflows before the bulletin. Summit inflation increased by approximately 0.8 microradians over the preceding 24 hours.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. Episode 55 high fountaining is still unconfirmed, and HVO reports no anomalous activity outside the summit. Hurricane weather has reduced camera visibility, while instrumental monitoring continues.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. The earthquake chronology and measured weather impacts provide observations for comparison, but they do not independently identify rotational orientation or a particular wobble phase.
Nolo’s stalled movement should likewise not be used on its own to assign a phase.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval adds a substantial New Caledonia sequence, renewed Ruteng activity, and geographically relevant events in the Indian Ocean and south of Africa.
The distinction between local intensification and broader acceleration matters here. The increase in earthquake numbers is heavily influenced by the Tadine sequence. The wider geographical record continues, but an ordered Ricochet response, an India Plate Brake, or a transition into the proposed tectonic Continental Drift sequence is not established by this interval.
Nolo’s observed impacts and Kīlauea’s renewed overflows add atmospheric and volcanic developments to the record. Their overlapping timing does not by itself establish a shared cause.
Source links
USGS Tadine M6.6
USGS Tadine M5.5
USGS Ruteng M4.8
USGS Ruteng M5.0
USGS Kokopo M5.6
USGS North Indian Ocean M4.7
USGS Kilmia M5.2
USGS south of Africa M4.6
USGS Xunchang M5.0, first event
USGS Xunchang M5.0, second event
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
Nolo’s September 26 morning update
National Hurricane Center storm advisories
HVO Kīlauea updates
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10 framework
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UPDATE: 25 September 2026
Location
Papua New Guinea; Kermadec Islands; Colombia; Banda–Timor; Vanuatu region; northern India; Drake Passage; southwestern Java; Chile; Hawaiʻi.
Atmospheric event
Nolo has strengthened into a hurricane. NWS Honolulu’s September 25, 15:22 UTC discussion describes a slow northward approach toward the Big Island, followed by an expected westward turn Friday night, Hawaiʻi time.
Additional rainfall estimates and some wind forecasts were lowered in the morning forecast. The arrival of heavier rain was delayed, but significant localized flooding remains possible, particularly across windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island.
The bulletin retains a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the Big Island, a Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County, and a Flood Watch for Maui County and the Big Island.
These remain forecast hazards. Forecast rainfall totals should not be presented as measured rainfall.
Plate event
Nine additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes extend the chronology:
• September 24, 22:22:59 UTC. M4.9, Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. Depth 48.8 km.
• September 24, 23:30:28 UTC. M5.3, 72 km northwest of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea. Depth 53.6 km.
• September 25, 00:57:07 UTC. M4.5, 39 km west-southwest of Sipí, Colombia. Depth 52.2 km.
• September 25, 04:27:40 UTC. M5.0, 124 km north of Metinaro, Timor-Leste. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 11:12:15 UTC. M5.3, Vanuatu region. Depth 24 km.
• September 25, 11:53:21 UTC. M4.5, 72 km east of Thang, India. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 12:37:16 UTC. M4.9, Drake Passage. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 13:47:26 UTC. M4.7, 80 km southwest of Labuan, Indonesia. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 15:29:09 UTC. M5.2, 62 km southwest of San Antonio, Chile. Depth 29.1 km.Metinaro and Labuan extend the Indonesian–Timor regional record. Finschhafen adds another Papua New Guinea event, but an aftershock relationship with the earlier earthquakes has not been established.
The Thang event is relevant to the India-region watch. Its occurrence alone does not identify an India Plate Brake or establish a sequence of responses between distant plates.
Volcanic activity
The latest Kīlauea daily bulletin retrieved remains dated September 24, 18:43 UTC. It reports 22 overflows cumulatively since September 22 at 22:10 HST, accompanied by low fountains and short lava flows.
This count belongs to that earlier bulletin. It is not a newly verified September 25 total.
WATCH/ORANGE remains the status in the retrieved bulletin. Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed in the material checked.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Earthquake times and a hurricane’s movement do not, by themselves, identify a rotational phase or demonstrate a transfer of stress between distant regions.
The atmospheric and seismic records remain part of the comparison, with observation times kept separate from publication times.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval extends the multi-day record across several monitored regions. Banda–Timor, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea remain represented, while the northern India event adds a geographically relevant observation.
The interpretation remains continuity across the monitored regions. This interval does not establish acceleration, an ordered Ricochet response, an India Plate Brake, or a confirmed transition into the proposed tectonic Continental Drift sequence.
Nolo’s hurricane development is a distinct atmospheric change. Kīlauea’s documented overflows are a separate volcanic development. Their coexistence belongs in the wider comparison without being treated as proof of a shared cause.
Source links
USGS Kermadec Islands M4.9
USGS Finschhafen M5.3
USGS Sipí M4.5
USGS Metinaro M5.0
USGS Vanuatu region M5.3
USGS Thang M4.5
USGS Drake Passage M4.9
USGS Labuan M4.7
USGS San Antonio M5.2
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
HVO Kīlauea updates
HVO observatory messages
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10 framework
© 2026 Created by Juan F Martinez.
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