🌍 One Wobble, Two Connected Layers: Plate Movement and Global Weather
An ongoing observation thread for ZetaTalk followers
Initial period: 24 August to 2 September 2026
The daily Earth wobble has been underway for a long time. It did not suddenly begin in August 2026. What stands out in this period is the increasingly visible overlap between two expressions of the same intensified wobble:
- Atmospheric disruption above, including displaced air masses, pressure shifts, heat domes, violent thunderstorms, tornadoes, extreme rainfall and rapid temperature reversals.
- Increasing plate movement below, including compression, stretching, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic unrest and movement along plate borders and ocean ridges.
The purpose of this blog is to keep both layers together. Weather events should not be studied separately from plate stress, and plate activity should not be viewed without considering the daily wobble and its effect on the atmosphere.
The daily wobble and the four Earth faces
The “faces” identify which broad longitude sector is facing the Sun during each part of the daily Figure-8 wobble. They are not separate forces or separate wobbles. They are successive phases of one daily motion.
Pacific / New Zealand Face. Polar Push
The magnetic North Pole is pushed away. A new daily wobble cycle and renewed global stress begin.
India Face. Lean Right
Compression around the Himalayas and the India Plate “Brake” becomes especially relevant.
Italy / Europe Face. Lean Left
The earlier lean reverses. European and Mediterranean circulation and plate loading can change sharply.
Atlantic / Americas Face. Bounce Back
The globe rebounds from the preceding lean, affecting the Atlantic and Americas before the next Polar Push.
Because the atmosphere, oceans and crust respond differently, the wobble does not produce the same effect everywhere at the same moment. One region can experience trapped heat while another receives violent storms or flooding. One plate border can be compressed while a distant ridge or subduction zone releases accumulated stress.
The significant feature is the organized global overlap, not one isolated weather record or earthquake.
24 August: the Pomas tornado during the Atlantic transition
On 24 August, a destructive tornado struck Pomas in southern France at approximately 15:00 to 15:20 UTC. It injured 39 people and damaged about 300 homes. Around 100 homes were reportedly left unsafe or uninhabitable. Winds were estimated above 200 km/h, with later assessments placing the tornado around the EF2 to EF3 range.
The tornado did not form in isolation. Southern France and the western Mediterranean had already experienced repeated heatwaves, drought, very dry ground and exceptionally warm water. The tornado occurred during a larger outbreak involving severe thunderstorms, hail, destructive winds, flooding and tens of thousands of lightning strikes across a corridor extending from Spain and southern France toward Corsica.
Its timing is especially relevant. At approximately 15:20 UTC, Europe was rotating away from the Italy Face Lean Left and into the Atlantic/Americas Bounce Back. This is the part of the daily wobble when the previous lean reverses and Atlantic pressure patterns can shift quickly.
The event therefore fits the following sequence:
European Lean Left → Atlantic transition → collision of warm African and cooler Atlantic air → rotating storms and destructive weather
The tornado was one atmospheric expression of a much wider transition involving trapped heat, sharp pressure changes and rapidly reorganizing air masses.
26 August: the India Plate “Brake” and the Tibet mudslide
On 26 August, a catastrophic collapse occurred directly along the Nepal-Tibet border. Glacier ice, rock, mud and water moved down the mountain system, producing a destructive debris flow and flash flooding through the border region.
The seismic signal was initially reported as an earthquake of about magnitude 5.2. Later analysis identified the signal as being produced by the enormous landslide itself. The essential ZetaTalk question is what destabilized the glacier, rock and water at this precise plate boundary.
ZetaTalk identifies movement of the India Plate as the trigger. The India Plate is being pushed beneath the Himalayas and acts as the “Brake” within global plate movement. When this brake moves, other plates are temporarily freer to adjust.
The location is central to the interpretation. The collapse occurred directly on the India-Tibet plate border, where compression and plate-border trauma would be expected when India is driven farther beneath the Himalayas. This movement destabilized the mountain mass, releasing rock, ice and accumulated water.
The mudslide should therefore be understood as more than a weather-related glacier failure. It marks movement at one of the most important pressure points in the global plate system.
26 to 29 August: the tectonic ricochet
The events following the Tibet collapse help show why the India Plate is described as the Brake.
Immediate response to the west
On 27 August, earthquakes appeared on the western side of the India Plate near Madagascar and the Indian Ocean ridge system. ZetaTalk explained that these were not the expected eastward domino sequence. They were a continuation of the original India Plate movement.
Because the India Plate is large and curves toward Australia, movement beneath the Himalayas can open space on both sides. A void opens to the west in the Indian Ocean near Madagascar, while pressure is also transferred toward the minor platelets east of India.
Later ricochet to the east
On 29 August, additional activity developed across Indonesia and the surrounding collision zones. This was the later west-to-east movement expected from a Domino or Ricochet event.
The sequence was therefore:
- 26 August, India-Tibet border: the Brake moves and the Tibet collapse occurs.
- 27 August, Madagascar side: an immediate western adjustment remains part of the India Plate movement.
- 29 August, Indonesia: pressure transfers eastward into separate minor plates and collision zones.
This was not one simple bounce. It was a chain reaction in which movement at a major continental brake temporarily allowed other plate boundaries to adjust.
The atmospheric side: record heat, violent storms and opposite extremes
While this tectonic ricochet was developing below, the atmosphere above was also showing increasingly extreme displacement.
The pattern was not simply “everything getting hotter.” Hot air was being trapped or driven into unusual regions, while cooler or moisture-loaded air collided with it elsewhere. This created record temperatures on one side of a boundary and violent storms, flooding or sudden cooling on the other.
Records reported on 1 and 2 September
- Southern France: 36.6°C at Les Vans, 36.5°C at Fitou and 35.2°C at Béziers, following earlier September records at Monfort and Trets.
- Balkans: Overnight minimums of 28.3°C at Dubrovnik and 27.0°C at Podgorica. Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia recorded their warmest September nights.
- North Africa: Minimums of 32.4°C at Ouargla, 31.9°C at Touggourt and 31.8°C at El Oued. Records also fell across Tunisia and parts of West Africa.
- Canadian Arctic: Clyde reached 15.4°C near 70°N, setting a September record.
- Siberia: Selagoncy reached 27.8°C and broke its September record immediately after breaking an August record.
- Mongolia: Bayantoorai reached 37.7°C, reported as Mongolia’s highest September temperature.
- South and Southeast Asia: Record maximums and exceptionally high nighttime minimums spread across India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
- Central America: Choluteca reached 39.8°C, reported as Honduras’s highest September temperature.
- South America: Lima recorded a September minimum of 20.4°C while parts of the Amazon approached 40°C.
Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera reported that tens of thousands of records had been broken across more than 220 countries and territories during the opening days of September. The importance lies in the geographical spread. The record pattern extended from Africa across Europe and Asia, into the Americas and high Arctic.
At the same time, the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard brought an opposite extreme to Texas. Some areas received up to approximately 53 centimetres of rain, accompanied by flash flooding, uprooted trees, widespread power failures and a reported wind gust of 145 km/h.
This is the push-pull pattern expected when the wobble disrupts air and water masses:
Trapped and displaced heat in one region → pressure and moisture concentration elsewhere → abrupt storms, flooding and temperature reversals
Plate activity continuing into 2 September
The plate response also continued. The USGS 24-hour feed generated at approximately 15:24 UTC on 2 September listed 19 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater. The most relevant feature was their clustering along ridges, subduction zones and plate margins.
- 22:37 to 23:45 UTC, 1 September. Mid-Indian Ridge: M4.6, M4.7 and M4.6 cluster.
- 00:04 UTC. Papua, Indonesia: M5.6.
- 05:10 to 05:40 UTC. Aleutian Islands, Alaska: four earthquakes between M4.6 and M5.2.
- 06:13 and 06:57 UTC. South Island, New Zealand: M5.3 followed by M5.2.
- 10:54 UTC. South Sandwich Islands: M5.2.
- 12:28 UTC. Offshore Mexico: M5.6.
- 12:32 UTC. Aleutian Islands: M5.2.
- 12:35 UTC. Southern East Pacific Rise: M5.9.
The Mexico, Aleutian and East Pacific Rise earthquakes occurred within approximately eight minutes despite their wide geographical separation. Earlier, three earthquakes had clustered along the Mid-Indian Ridge, followed by activity in Indonesia, New Zealand and the Aleutians.
The developing line can be summarized as:
Mid-Indian Ridge → Indonesia → New Zealand and Aleutians → South Sandwich Islands → Mexico and East Pacific Rise
Mount Sinabung in Indonesia also erupted on 31 August after volcanic seismicity had increased since late July. This adds volcanic pressure release to the continuing Indonesian and western Pacific activity.
The bigger picture
The late-August and early-September events should be viewed as one developing global picture.
Above the surface
- African heat is driven into the Mediterranean and Europe.
- Record warmth reaches Siberia, Canada and the Arctic.
- Warm nights show that heat remains trapped after sunset.
- Colliding air masses generate tornadoes, hail, extreme lightning and destructive winds.
- Displaced water and moisture produce exceptional rainfall and flooding elsewhere.
Below the surface
- The India Plate is pushed beneath the Himalayas.
- Border trauma destabilizes the Tibet mountain system.
- Movement opens space west toward Madagascar.
- Pressure later transfers east through Indonesia.
- Ridge, subduction-zone and plate-margin activity continues into the Pacific and Americas.
These are two connected expressions of the same intensified daily wobble. The atmosphere responds through pressure, wind, temperature and water. The crust responds through compression, stretching, slipping, sinking, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity.
One wobble. Atmospheric disruption above and increasing plate movement below.
What to watch next
The next stage is not to focus on every isolated event. The stronger evidence will come from repeated clusters that reproduce the same relationships:
- plate movement near the India Plate Brake;
- activity west near Madagascar and the Indian Ocean ridges;
- later movement through Indonesia and the western Pacific;
- Atlantic and Americas activity during the Bounce Back;
- European heat or storms during the Italy Face and Atlantic transition;
- same-day overlap between atmospheric extremes and plate releases;
- events that repeatedly cluster within similar UTC windows.
Event time is more useful than the time a report was posted. When adding observations, use UTC wherever possible and include the original source.
Ongoing update and comment format
This blog can serve as a continuing observation thread. Updates may be added to the main post, while members can place new events and pattern observations in the comments.
Suggested format:
UPDATE: [date and time UTC]
Location:
Atmospheric event: heat, storm, flooding, pressure change or temperature swing
Plate event: earthquake, swarm, landslide, volcanic activity, sinking or infrastructure stress
Wobble phase: Polar Push, India Lean Right, Italy Lean Left or Atlantic/Americas Bounce Back
Possible connection:
Source link:
Keeping observations in this format will make it easier to compare one day with another and determine whether the same combined sequence is intensifying.
Sources
- ZetaTalk Newsletter, Issue 1031: https://zetatalk.com/newsletr/issu1031.html
- Pole Shift Ning copy of Newsletter 1031: https://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/zetatalk-newsletter-for-s...
- ZetaTalk daily wobble and four faces: https://www.zetatalk.com/ning/30ju2023.htm
- Pomas tornado report: https://watchers.news/2026/08/25/tornado-in-pomas-injures-39-damage...
- USGS Nepal debris avalanche and flash flood: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-...
- USGS M4.5+ rolling earthquake feed: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/summary/4.5_day.g...
- Extreme Temperatures Around the World: https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social
- North African heat update: https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social/post/3mujxhuutoc27
- Texas flooding report: https://apnews.com/article/aa5eb54efac7113246603f1c40c1a037
- Mount Sinabung report: https://people.com/mount-sinabung-volcano-in-indonesia-erupts-ash-1...
Research, organization and visual presentation prepared with assistance from ChatGPT.
Views: 4882
Comment
-
Comment by Gerard Zwaan on September 25, 2026 at 9:09pm
-
UPDATE: 25 September 2026
Location
Papua New Guinea; Kermadec Islands; Colombia; Banda–Timor; Vanuatu region; northern India; Drake Passage; southwestern Java; Chile; Hawaiʻi.
Atmospheric event
Nolo has strengthened into a hurricane. NWS Honolulu’s September 25, 15:22 UTC discussion describes a slow northward approach toward the Big Island, followed by an expected westward turn Friday night, Hawaiʻi time.
Additional rainfall estimates and some wind forecasts were lowered in the morning forecast. The arrival of heavier rain was delayed, but significant localized flooding remains possible, particularly across windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island.
The bulletin retains a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the Big Island, a Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County, and a Flood Watch for Maui County and the Big Island.
These remain forecast hazards. Forecast rainfall totals should not be presented as measured rainfall.
Plate event
Nine additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes extend the chronology:
• September 24, 22:22:59 UTC. M4.9, Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. Depth 48.8 km.
• September 24, 23:30:28 UTC. M5.3, 72 km northwest of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea. Depth 53.6 km.
• September 25, 00:57:07 UTC. M4.5, 39 km west-southwest of SipĂ, Colombia. Depth 52.2 km.
• September 25, 04:27:40 UTC. M5.0, 124 km north of Metinaro, Timor-Leste. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 11:12:15 UTC. M5.3, Vanuatu region. Depth 24 km.
• September 25, 11:53:21 UTC. M4.5, 72 km east of Thang, India. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 12:37:16 UTC. M4.9, Drake Passage. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 13:47:26 UTC. M4.7, 80 km southwest of Labuan, Indonesia. Depth 10 km.
• September 25, 15:29:09 UTC. M5.2, 62 km southwest of San Antonio, Chile. Depth 29.1 km.Metinaro and Labuan extend the Indonesian–Timor regional record. Finschhafen adds another Papua New Guinea event, but an aftershock relationship with the earlier earthquakes has not been established.
The Thang event is relevant to the India-region watch. Its occurrence alone does not identify an India Plate Brake or establish a sequence of responses between distant plates.
Volcanic activity
The latest KÄ«lauea daily bulletin retrieved remains dated September 24, 18:43 UTC. It reports 22 overflows cumulatively since September 22 at 22:10 HST, accompanied by low fountains and short lava flows.
This count belongs to that earlier bulletin. It is not a newly verified September 25 total.
WATCH/ORANGE remains the status in the retrieved bulletin. Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed in the material checked.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Earthquake times and a hurricane’s movement do not, by themselves, identify a rotational phase or demonstrate a transfer of stress between distant regions.
The atmospheric and seismic records remain part of the comparison, with observation times kept separate from publication times.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval extends the multi-day record across several monitored regions. Banda–Timor, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea remain represented, while the northern India event adds a geographically relevant observation.
The interpretation remains continuity across the monitored regions. This interval does not establish acceleration, an ordered Ricochet response, an India Plate Brake, or a confirmed transition into the proposed tectonic Continental Drift sequence.
Nolo’s hurricane development is a distinct atmospheric change. Kīlauea’s documented overflows are a separate volcanic development. Their coexistence belongs in the wider comparison without being treated as proof of a shared cause.
Source links
USGS Kermadec Islands M4.9
USGS Finschhafen M5.3
USGS SipĂ M4.5
USGS Metinaro M5.0
USGS Vanuatu region M5.3
USGS Thang M4.5
USGS Drake Passage M4.9
USGS Labuan M4.7
USGS San Antonio M5.2
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
HVO KÄ«lauea updates
HVO observatory messages
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10 framework
-
-
UPDATE: 24 September 2026, 22:09 UTC
Location
Kokopo, Papua New Guinea; Abepura and Ternate, Indonesia; southern Mexico; Colombia; Kīlauea and Hawaiʻi.
Atmospheric event
Nolo continues to threaten Hawaiʻi. NWS Honolulu’s 18:58 UTC discussion describes the storm strengthening south of the islands, with the heaviest rainfall expected Friday through Friday night.
Recent observations remain distinct from the larger forecast totals:
• Most windward Big Island stations measured less than 25 mm during the preceding 12 hours.
• A few gauges upslope of Hilo measured approximately 38–51 mm.
• Prolonged heavy rain could still produce totals exceeding 508 mm in the most exposed areas.The discussion retains the Big Island Hurricane Watch. Rainfall intensity remains sensitive to how far north Nolo travels before turning west.
A subsequent Maui Now report at 21:00 UTC states that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Hawaiʻi County, with Nolo moving north at approximately 2 mph. The corresponding official warning text could not be retrieved directly during this review, so that change remains attributed to the report.
Plate event
Six additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurred on September 24:
• 12:29:58 UTC: M5.2, 139 km southwest of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Depth 95.6 km.
• 14:02:42 UTC: M4.5, 106 km southwest of Puerto Madero, Mexico. Depth 10 km.
• 16:28:00 UTC: M4.6, 119 km southwest of Abepura, Indonesia. Depth 68.5 km.
• 16:46:31 UTC: M4.6, 21 km north-northwest of Rioblanco, Colombia. Depth 10 km.
• 18:00:47 UTC: M5.1, 32 km south of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Depth 94.0 km.
• 20:05:25 UTC: M4.6, 155 km northwest of Ternate, Indonesia. Depth 48.5 km.
The two Kokopo earthquakes add intermediate-depth activity in the same wider region, although their locations differ. An aftershock relationship is not established here.
Abepura and Ternate extend the Indonesian chronology. Mexico and Colombia add separate events along the eastern side of the Pacific. Establishing acceleration would require comparison with a consistent longer-term baseline.
Volcanic activity
A new HVO bulletin issued at 18:43 UTC confirms 22 north-vent overflows at KÄ«lauea since the sequence resumed on September 22 local time. This is a cumulative total, not 22 additional overflows since the midday update.
Most lasted 15–35 minutes and produced lava flows extending a few hundred metres. Fountains rose approximately 5–10 metres above the newly built cone, which stands approximately 10–15 metres high.
Summit measurements show approximately 0.2 microradians of inflation over the past day, following the slight deflation previously reported. Continuous tremor persists.
No anomalous activity is reported outside the summit, and recent vents 1–6 remain inactive.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. Episode 55 high fountaining is still unconfirmed. HVO describes the summit system as active and highly pressurized, but cannot reliably model the timing of the next episode.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Earth-orientation measurements were not assessed in this review. Neither the earthquake ordering nor Nolo’s forecast turn independently identifies a wobble direction or bounce-back phase.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, the Indonesian and Papua New Guinea chronology continues, with additional events in Mexico and Colombia. Kīlauea now has a substantially larger documented overflow count.
These observations expand the record. They do not establish a direct India Plate Brake, an ordered Ricochet response or a shared cause connecting volcanic activity and weather.
The proposed Continental Drift transition assessment remains unchanged. Regional continuity remains relevant to the comparison, while stronger claims require additional evidence.
Source links
USGS Kokopo M5.2
USGS Mexico M4.5
USGS Abepura M4.6
USGS Colombia M4.6
USGS Kokopo M5.1
USGS Ternate M4.6
HVO KÄ«lauea updates
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
Maui Now: Nolo and Tropical Storm Warning
NWS Honolulu alerts
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10
-
-
UPDATE: 24 September 2026, 12:01 UTC
Location
Indonesian Papua; Komodo, Indonesia; Hilvan, Turkey; Kermadec Islands, New Zealand; Hawaiʻi Island and Maui.
Atmospheric event
The Hawaiʻi storm threat remains significant. The NWS Honolulu discussion issued at 06:38 UTC identifies Nolo as a tropical storm, with strengthening to hurricane intensity forecast as it moves toward the Big Island.
The discussion carries a reported intensity of 45 mph, approximately 72 km/h, from its preceding advisory information. This is not a separately verified midday intensity.
New observations show that numerous windward Big Island locations received more than 25 mm of rainfall during the preceding 12 hours.
The forecast is considerably larger:
• Big Island: 508–762 mm, with isolated amounts approaching 889 mm.
• Maui: approximately 254–381 mm.These are forecast totals, not rainfall already measured. NWS maintains the Big Island Hurricane Watch and identifies the potential for significant to locally catastrophic flooding, particularly on windward and southeastern slopes. Track uncertainty remains higher than normal.
Plate event
Four new reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurred on September 24:
• 00:26:38 UTC: M4.6, 223 km west-northwest of Abepura, Indonesia. Depth 35 km.
• 03:30:26 UTC: M4.5, 31 km north-northwest of Komodo, Indonesia. Depth 10 km.
• 07:40:58 UTC: M5.3, 15 km south-southwest of Hilvan, Turkey. Depth 10 km.
• 11:08:24 UTC: M4.9, Kermadec Islands, New Zealand. Depth 35 km.
Komodo extends the wider Indonesian chronology west of the recent Ruteng activity. Abepura adds activity farther east in Indonesian Papua, while Kermadec continues the southwest Pacific record.
Turkey provides the strongest earthquake in this group and adds another region to the interval. This geographical spread alone does not establish accelerating plate movement or an ordered transfer between distant regions. No fault mechanism or aftershock relationship is assigned in this review.
Volcanic activity
The latest HVO short message retrieved remains September 23, 18:41 UTC, when a sixth north-vent overflow at KÄ«lauea was in progress.
The daily bulletin retrieved is also dated September 23. It documents repeated precursory overflows, strong tremor and slight summit deflation, with WATCH/ORANGE unchanged. HVO states that irregular inflation and deflation prevent reliable modelling of the next high-fountaining window.
No newer confirmation of episode 55 was found in the pages checked. Yesterday’s overflow report should therefore remain in the chronology without being presented as a fresh September 24 observation. The absence of a newer retrieved bulletin does not establish that activity has remained unchanged.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Earth-orientation measurements were not assessed in this review. Earthquake timing and Nolo’s forecast turn do not independently establish a wobble direction, bounce-back phase or timing.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, Indonesia and the southwest Pacific retain regional continuity, while Turkey adds a separate shallow event.
Hawaiʻi has overlapping volcanic and atmospheric concerns, but the volcanic information remains yesterday’s report. Their coexistence does not establish a shared cause.
This interval provides no new basis for identifying a direct India Plate Brake, an ordered Ricochet response or an upgraded Continental Drift transition assessment. The chronology continues to expand, while the proposed connections remain interpretations requiring further evidence.
Source links
USGS Abepura M4.6
USGS Komodo M4.5
USGS Hilvan, Turkey, M5.3
USGS Kermadec Islands M4.9
HVO KÄ«lauea updates
HVO observatory messages
NWS Honolulu forecast discussion
NWS Honolulu alerts
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10
-
-
UPDATE: 23 September 2026, evening UTC
Location
Mariana Islands; Tonga; Fiji; Wallis and Futuna; Argentina; Ternate, Indonesia; Kīlauea and Hawaiʻi Island.
Atmospheric event
The weather threat to Hawaiʻi has increased.
At 21:01 UTC, NWS Honolulu issued Nolo-related Hurricane Watches for Big Island areas, including Kohala, the interior, summits, eastern and southeastern districts. A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible within the stated watch period.
The eastern Big Island statement forecasts an additional 18–24 inches, approximately 457–610 mm, of rainfall, with locally higher amounts. NWS identifies the potential for devastating to catastrophic flooding.
These are forecast amounts and potential impacts, not measured rainfall or confirmed damage. Nevertheless, they represent a substantial development from the earlier heavy-rain outlook.
Plate event
Six additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurred on September 23:
• 13:01:51 UTC: M5.0, Mariana Islands region. Depth 306.0 km.
• 14:41:02 UTC: M5.7, 180 km northwest of Hihifo, Tonga. Depth 10 km.
• 14:45:35 UTC: M4.6, south of the Fiji Islands. Depth 528.3 km.
• 16:48:37 UTC: M4.6, 59 km west-northwest of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina. Depth 193.2 km.
• 17:20:32 UTC: M4.9, 193 km southeast of Mata-Utu, Wallis and Futuna. Depth 10 km.
• 17:46:06 UTC: M5.0, 140 km north-northeast of Ba, Fiji. Depth 10 km.
An earlier addition also needs recording:
• 12:23:20 UTC: M4.6, 106 km west-northwest of Ternate, Indonesia. Depth 48.5 km.
The Ternate earthquake occurred before the afternoon update and is an addition to the earlier chronology.
The Pacific activity spans shallow and deep earthquakes. The shallow Tonga and Wallis–Futuna events warrant comparison, but an aftershock relationship has not been established in this review. Close timing between events at different depths and locations does not establish a causal relay.
Volcanic activity
Kīlauea’s north-vent overflow sequence continued beyond the two events previously reported.
HVO lists additional overflow starts at 12:46, 16:10 and 17:04 UTC. Its subsequent short message at 18:41 UTC reports a sixth overflow in progress. That is the status at the time of the message, not confirmation that the overflow continued throughout the evening.
The daily bulletin reports lava flows extending a few hundred metres from the vent, strong continuous tremor, and approximately 0.3 microradians of summit deflation beginning around 13:00 UTC.
No anomalous activity was reported outside the summit, and no renewed activity was observed at recent vents 1–6.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. HVO states that irregular inflation and deflation prevent reliable modelling of the next episode’s forecast window. Another high-fountaining episode remains uncertain. Episode 55 is not confirmed by the bulletins checked.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. No Earth-orientation measurements were assessed in this review. Earthquake timing and storm development alone cannot determine the direction or timing of a wobble phase.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval adds Pacific activity across shallow and deep earthquake zones, repeated summit overflows at Kīlauea, and a stronger atmospheric threat near Hawaiʻi.
These developments extend the regional chronology. They do not establish a direct India Plate Brake, an ordered Ricochet response, or a shared cause linking the storm and volcanic activity.
The proposed Continental Drift transition assessment remains unchanged. The distinction between observed developments and their interpretation remains essential when comparing the sequence.
Source links
USGS Mariana Islands M5.0
USGS Tonga M5.7
USGS south of Fiji M4.6
USGS Argentina M4.6
USGS Wallis and Futuna M4.9
USGS Fiji M5.0
USGS earlier Ternate M4.6
HVO KÄ«lauea updates
HVO observatory messages
NWS Honolulu Hurricane Watch statements
NWS Honolulu
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10
-
-
UPDATE: 23 September 2026, 12:48 UTC
Location
Indonesia; Tajikistan; Scotia Sea; Argentina; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; southwestern United States; Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.
Atmospheric event
The National Weather Service highlights heavy rain over New Mexico and far western Texas through Thursday, September 24, with flash-flood and burn-scar debris-flow concerns. Heavy rain and possible flash flooding also feature across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.
For Hawaiʻi Island and Maui, NWS identifies heavy rain associated with a tropical depression southeast of Hawaiʻi. This information comes from the NWS summary. The direct Central Pacific cyclone advisory was unavailable during this check, so no additional wind speeds or track details are assigned.
Memphis recorded a September 22 maximum of 31.7°C and minimum of 20.6°C. Both remained above normal, but daytime heat eased further. The maximum did not break the daily record.
Plate event
Five additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes enter the chronology:
• September 22, 22:27 UTC: M4.5, 68 km south-southwest of Labuan, Indonesia. Depth 35 km.
• September 23, 02:02 UTC: M4.5, 63 km northeast of Ruteng, Indonesia. Depth 10 km.
• September 23, 05:46 UTC: M4.7, 30 km southeast of Khorugh, Tajikistan. Depth 141.2 km.
• September 23, 08:41 UTC: M4.9, Scotia Sea. Depth 10 km.
• September 23, 09:21 UTC: M5.3, 51 km west-southwest of Arauco, Argentina. Depth 121.5 km.
Ruteng adds further shallow activity to the Flores chronology. Khorugh adds intermediate-depth activity in the wider Pamir region. Argentina provides the strongest earthquake in this group.
The geographical spread remains relevant to the ongoing comparison, but timing alone does not establish an ordered transfer between these distant regions.
Volcanic activity
KÄ«lauea provides the clearest new local development.
HVO documented two vigorous precursory overflows from the north vent on September 23:
• 08:10–08:34 UTC: approximately 24 minutes.
• 09:44–10:18 UTC: approximately 34 minutes.During the second overflow, HVO reported a dome fountain approximately 25 metres high, feeding two lava flows extending approximately 150–300 metres.
Summit tilt remained flat and tremor unchanged during the overflows. The second overflow had ended by the latest short message checked.
This marks an increase from the earlier minor spattering. HVO nevertheless described the activity as precursory and said it remained unclear whether it would lead into the next fountaining episode.
Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed. WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged, and the activity remains confined to Halemaʻumaʻu.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Earthquake timing and simultaneous weather developments do not establish the direction or timing of a wobble phase. No Earth-orientation measurements were assessed in this check.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, the regional chronology continues, including repeated activity around Flores and the wider Pamir region. Kīlauea adds a distinct, documented increase in local volcanic activity.
This interval does not establish a new direct India Plate Brake or an ordered Ricochet response. It also does not provide sufficient evidence to strengthen the proposed Continental Drift transition assessment.
The seismic, volcanic and atmospheric developments remain part of the wider comparison. Their coexistence should not be treated as proof of a shared cause.
Source links
USGS Labuan M4.5
USGS Ruteng M4.5
USGS Khorugh M4.7
USGS Scotia Sea M4.9
USGS Argentina M5.3
HVO KÄ«lauea updates
HVO observatory messages
National Weather Service
Memphis daily climate report
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10
-
-
UPDATE: 22 September 2026, 21:40 UTC
Location
Tonga; Philippines; Kuril Islands, Russia; Kuqa, China; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; New Mexico, west Texas and the US East Coast.
Atmospheric event
The National Weather Service continues to forecast heavy rainfall over New Mexico and far west Texas through Wednesday, September 23. Flash flooding and debris flows in wildfire burn areas remain possible.
A coastal storm is forecast to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday and intensify toward southern New England over the weekend. Anticipated hazards include coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.
These remain forecast hazards. No new verified impacts were established in this check. Tropical-cyclone coverage remains incomplete.
Plate event
Two new reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes occurred on September 22:
• 20:11:50 UTC: M4.8, 26 km northwest of Houma, Tonga. Depth 121.9 km.
• 20:34:43 UTC: M4.6, 46 km east of Union, Philippines. Depth 10 km.Two earlier reviewed events were also added to the chronology:
• 13:56:15 UTC: M4.6, 37 km southeast of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia. Depth 83.9 km.
• 16:09:09 UTC: M4.5, 51 km west of Kuqa, China. Depth 10 km.The Russian and Chinese earthquakes occurred before the previous update but were absent from the feed retrieved then. They are earlier additions, not later occurrences. The overlapping records showed no magnitude or depth changes.
Volcanic activity
HVO’s 18:51 UTC Kīlauea bulletin documents a very small, spatter-fed lava flow that travelled approximately 5–10 metres from the north vent at 05:23–05:24 UTC today. This is newly reported here, but occurred earlier.
Spattering was observed at both north and south vents. Strong continuous tremor persisted, while summit inflation gained approximately 0.2 microradians over the preceding day, slower than the previous report’s 0.6. Recovered tilt reached approximately 15.8 microradians, near the previous peak of 16.
WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged. HVO’s conditional estimate of about a day to regain previous peak pressurization is not an eruption start forecast. Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Direct Earth-orientation measurements were not assessed, and the timing of these earthquakes and weather forecasts does not establish a directional cycle or an ordered transfer between distant regions.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, the additions extend the Philippines, Tonga, Kuril and inland Asian chronology. Kīlauea adds a measurable local development: a small lava flow alongside continued, slower inflation.
The multi-day record continues, but this interval does not establish an ordered India Plate Brake or Ricochet response. The proposed Continental Drift transition assessment remains unchanged.
Source links
-
-
UPDATE: 22 September 2026, 16:37 UTC
Location
Philippines; Japan; Indonesia; Guatemala; South Sandwich Islands; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; New Mexico, west Texas and the US East Coast.
Atmospheric event
The National Weather Service highlights heavy to excessive rainfall over New Mexico and far west Texas through Wednesday, September 23. Flash flooding and debris flows in wildfire burn areas are possible.
A strong coastal storm is forecast to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday, intensifying toward southern New England over the weekend. Expected hazards include significant coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion from high surf.
These are forecast hazards, not confirmed impacts.
Memphis’s September 21 climate report shows a maximum of 94°F / 34.4°C and a minimum of 75°F / 23.9°C. These were respectively 5°C and 6.1°C above normal. The maximum declined from the previous day’s 37.2°C, documenting some easing while above-normal warmth continued. No measurable rainfall was recorded.
Tropical-cyclone coverage remains incomplete in this update.
Plate event
Eleven additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes extend the chronology:
September 21:
• 21:37 UTC: M5.0, South Sandwich Islands, 10 km.
• 22:29 UTC: M4.5, east of Namie, Japan, 35 km.
• 23:48 UTC: M5.3, south of Sarangani, Philippines, 10 km.September 22:
• 00:08 UTC: M4.8, north of Claveria, Philippines, 10 km.
• 03:36 UTC: M4.7, NNW of Ende, Indonesia, 10 km.
• 05:18 UTC: M5.0, Volcano Islands, Japan, 10 km.
• 06:11 UTC: M4.9, Volcano Islands, Japan, 10 km.
• 06:48 UTC: M4.6, ENE of Nailong, Philippines, 10 km.
• 10:30 UTC: M4.6, south of Ambon, Indonesia, 295.6 km.
• 10:46 UTC: M5.1, NNW of Uken, Japan, 10 km.
• 11:43 UTC: M4.7, WNW of La Gomera, Guatemala, 88.8 km.Volcanic activity
The latest retrieved KÄ«lauea daily bulletin remains September 21 at 19:28 UTC. It documented continuous strong summit tremor, slow inflation and minor north-vent spattering. WATCH/ORANGE remained unchanged.
Its conditional estimate of returning to previous peak pressurization within one to two days is not a new eruption forecast. HVO said irregular inflation and deflation prevented reliable forecast windows. Episode 55 high fountaining remains unconfirmed in the material retrieved.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. Direct Earth-orientation measurements were not assessed. Earthquake timing and weather developments alone do not resolve a directional wobble cycle or demonstrate transfer between distant regions.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, activity across the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia remains relevant to the multi-day record.
The chronology continues, but the event count alone cannot establish acceleration, particularly when successive updates cover different interval lengths. No ordered India Plate Brake or Ricochet response is established. The proposed Continental Drift transition assessment remains unchanged.
Source links
-
-
UPDATE: 21 September 2026, 21:25 UTC
Location
Tajikistan; northern Chile; Japan; Colombia; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and New Mexico, USA.
Atmospheric event
The National Weather Service now highlights repeated rainfall across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with potential flash flooding. Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.
A separate multi-day heavy-rain threat is forecast for New Mexico beginning Tuesday, September 22, with the potential for flash flooding.
These are forecast hazards, not confirmed damage reports.
Memphis’s latest retrieved daily report still covers September 20. The maximum of 37.2°C and minimum of 26.1°C remain part of the earlier heat chronology. No new daily temperature result is added here.
Tropical-cyclone coverage remains incomplete in this update.
Plate event
Six additional reviewed M4.5+ earthquakes extend the sequence. All occurred on September 21:
• 10:48:16 UTC: M4.7, 95 km ENE of Khorugh, Tajikistan. Depth 129.3 km.
• 11:48:29 UTC: M5.2, 167 km WNW of Mejillones, Chile. Depth 10 km.
• 12:17:05 UTC: M4.7, 76 km west of Ollagüe, Chile. Depth 121.2 km.
• 13:38:32 UTC: M5.0, 38 km east of Nobeoka, Japan. Depth 42.7 km.
• 15:56:20 UTC: M4.5, Izu Islands region, Japan. Depth 10 km.
• 18:48:45 UTC: M4.5, 5 km southwest of San Antonio, Colombia. Depth 10 km.The two Chilean earthquakes occurred about 29 minutes apart, but their different locations and depths mean they should not automatically be treated as an aftershock pair.
The earlier Ruteng M5.5 and Luwuk M5.0 retain their listed magnitudes and depths.
Volcanic activity
HVO’s 19:28 UTC bulletin provides a substantive development at Kīlauea: strong summit tremor has become continuous. Slow inflation continues, alongside glow, flames and minor intermittent north-vent spattering.
HVO conditionally estimates a return to previous peak pressurization within one to two days at the current inflation rate. Possible outcomes include renewed established-vent activity, reactivation of vents 1–6, or intrusion elsewhere within the summit.
This is not an episode 55 start forecast. HVO says irregular deformation prevents reliable forecast windows. WATCH/ORANGE remains unchanged, and no anomalous activity outside the summit is reported.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. The checked observations do not resolve a directional wobble cycle or establish a timed transfer between distant plate regions. No new Earth-orientation measurements were assessed.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ongoing ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, this interval adds Central Asian, Chilean, Japanese and Colombian activity to the earlier Indonesian and southwest Pacific chronology.
The geographical spread belongs in the continuing record. KÄ«lauea adds a separate, measurable development in volcanic unrest. These observations do not, by themselves, establish an ordered India Plate Brake or Ricochet response.
The assessment of the proposed Continental Drift transition remains unchanged. Continued activity across different regions is documented, while a shared mechanism or ordered global sequence remains unestablished.
Source links
-
-
UPDATE: 21 September 2026, 10:17 UTC
Location
Indonesia, southwest Pacific, Shikotan, Turkey, Peru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Hawaiʻi and the United States.
Atmospheric event
Memphis’s September 20 observations remain the latest daily heat figures checked:
• Maximum: 99°F / 37.2°C.
• Minimum: 79°F / 26.1°C.
• Both were 14°F / 7.8°C above their respective daily normals.The maximum fell short of the date’s 100°F record. The significant feature is persistent heat accompanied by a notably warm minimum. These are September 20 observations, not new measurements from September 21. NWS Memphis climate report
The National Weather Service continues to highlight possible flooding from heavy to excessive rainfall in the central Appalachians. This remains a forecast concern, not a verified account of flooding. Tropical-cyclone coverage remains incomplete because the NHC page could not be retrieved. National Weather Service
Plate event
The combined record contains eight reviewed M4.5+ events:
September 20:
• 22:09 UTC: M4.9, southeast of Loyalty Islands, 10 km.
• 22:51 UTC: M4.9, SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands, 10 km.
• 23:25 UTC: M4.6, SSW of Shikotan, Russia, 57.4 km.September 21:
• 01:02 UTC: M4.9, SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey, 10 km.
• 01:41 UTC: M5.5, NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia, 10 km.
• 03:58 UTC: M4.5, west of Victor Raul, Peru, 73.1 km.
• 04:28 UTC: M4.7, NNW of Hicks Bay, New Zealand, 213 km.
• 07:31 UTC: M5.0, WNW of Luwuk, Indonesia, 9.9 km.Luwuk is newly added here but occurred before the morning update. Ruteng remains the strongest event in this combined interval. USGS Luwuk | USGS Ruteng
The earlier September 20 M6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, remains part of the wider chronology. USGS Papua New Guinea
Volcanic activity
The latest retrieved HVO short message remains the September 21 bulletin at 05:56 UTC. It reports strong glow and frequent flames at Kīlauea’s north, south and west vents.
Magma remained high in the conduits but below the level allowing continuous visible spattering. Slow summit inflation continued, with no activity reported outside the summit. No newer short message was retrieved, and this bulletin does not confirm episode 55 high fountaining. HVO observatory messages
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. The observations checked do not resolve a directional wobble cycle or establish a timed transfer between distant plate regions. No new Earth-orientation measurements were assessed.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, Indonesian activity remains a focus. Luwuk adds another Indonesian location alongside the recurring activity near Ruteng.
The useful distinction is between recurrence within a local sequence and activity at geographically separate locations. A larger list alone does not establish an ordered global response.
The combined observations do not establish a direct India Plate Brake or Ricochet sequence, nor do they strengthen the evidence sufficiently to identify a Continental Drift transition. Atmospheric and volcanic developments remain part of the comparison without assuming that their coexistence proves a shared cause
Source links
USGS Luwuk M5.0
USGS Ruteng M5.5
USGS Loyalty Islands M4.9
USGS Solomon Islands M4.9
USGS Shikotan M4.6
USGS Turkey M4.9
USGS Peru M4.5
USGS New Zealand M4.7
USGS earlier Papua New Guinea M6.4
HVO KÄ«lauea observatory messages
NWS Memphis daily climate report
National Weather Service weather overview
ZetaTalk: 8 of 10. Interpretive framework.
-
-
UPDATE: 20 September 2026, 22:09 UTC
Location
Papua New Guinea; Solomon Islands; Tonga; Japan; Alaska; south of Africa; Hawaiʻi; central United States.
Atmospheric event
The National Weather Service now emphasizes heavy-rainfall potential across the northern High Plains and Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with flood watches in effect. Heat advisories continue across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
These are updated forecasts and alerts, not confirmation of new widespread flood damage. The previously documented Memphis daily heat record remains part of the chronology. No additional temperature record was verified in this scan.
Tropical-system coverage remains incomplete because current NHC information could not be retrieved.
Plate event
The Papua New Guinea M6.4 omitted from the original morning update is now independently confirmed in the retrieved USGS feed as reviewed:
September 20, 09:17:35 UTC
M6.4, 49 km NNE of Kainantu
Depth: 104.3 kmIt remains part of the corrected morning chronology and is not counted again among the seven subsequent events below.
All occurred on September 20, UTC:
• 12:24:22: M4.8, west of Lata, Solomon Islands, depth 33.9 km.
• 12:45:53: M5.4, NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, depth 116.0 km.
• 13:00:45: M5.2, west of Hihifo, Tonga, depth 10 km.
• 13:54:56: M4.7, southeast of Shima, Japan, depth 354.9 km.
• 13:55:47: M4.6, WSW of Nikolski, Alaska, depth 87.3 km.
• 20:54:37: M5.7, south of Africa, depth 10 km.
• 21:06:19: M5.0, SSE of False Pass, Alaska, depth 10 km.All seven are reviewed. The Papua New Guinea and Tonga additions warrant local sequence analysis before being interpreted as separate steps in a global progression. No focal mechanisms were examined in this scan.
Kīlauea also has a fresh observational update. HVO’s 20:16 UTC message reports that summit inflation has slowed significantly. Vents glowed brightly overnight, with spattering observed at the south and west vents. No major overnight changes were reported.
WATCH/ORANGE remains listed. The main notice contains unfinished episode and forecast fields, so it cannot support an eruption date. Yesterday’s one-to-two-day pressurization estimate should not be treated as a countdown, particularly given the slower inflation now reported. Episode 55 high fountaining is not confirmed by this information.
Wobble phase
No precise wobble phase is assigned. No new Earth-orientation measurements supporting a phase assessment were obtained. Closely timed earthquakes in different regions do not independently establish an ordered wobble response.
ZetaTalk connection
Within the ZetaTalk “8 of 10” comparison, the south-of-Africa event deserves attention alongside the earlier Atlantic ridge activity and continuing Pacific sequences. Its location alone does not establish a particular fault movement or the proposed opening west of Madagascar.
The corrected chronology includes the Papua New Guinea M6.4 and later regional activity. Regional continuity remains relevant, but this interval does not demonstrate an India Plate Brake, an ordered Ricochet response or a confirmed Continental Drift transition.
Source links
USGS Papua New Guinea M6.4
USGS Papua New Guinea M5.4
USGS Solomon Islands
USGS Tonga
USGS Japan
USGS Nikolski
© 2026 Created by Juan F Martinez.
Powered by
You need to be a member of Earth Changes and the Pole Shift to add comments!
Join Earth Changes and the Pole Shift