Please Place Evidence of the 7 of 10 Plate Movements Here

Kojima had created small snips of Konstantin's animation of the 7 of 10 Plate Movements.

Here is the full 7 of 10 Animation by Konstantin.

This blog is the place to document ongoing earth changes related to the 7 of 10  plate movements as described by the Zetas.

ZetaTalk: 7 of 10 Sequence
written October 16, 2010

The 7 of 10 scenarios describe plate movements, and for this to occur something has to release the deadlock, the current stalemate where the plates are locked against each other. Once the deadlock is broken and the plates start moving, sliding past each other, new points where the plates are locked against each other develop, but these are weaker locks than the one at present. The current lock, as we have so often stated, is the Indo-Australian Plate which is being driven under the Himalayans. This is no small lock, as the height of the Himalayans attests. Nevertheless, the activity in this region shows this likely to be the first of the 7 of 10 scenarios to manifest. Bangladesh is sinking and the Coral Sea is rising, showing the overall tipping of the Indo-Australian Plate. Now Pakistan is sinking and not draining its floods as it should, while Jakarta on the tongue of Indonesia is also sinking rapidly, showing that the tilt that will allow Indonesia to sink has already started.

Meanwhile, S America is showing signs of a roll to the west. Explosions on islands just to the north of the S American Plate occurred recently, on Bonaire and Trinidad-Tobago, and the Andes are regularly being pummeled. There is a relationship. As the Indo-Australia Plate lifts and slides, this allows the Pacific plates to shift west, which allows S America to shift west also. This is greatly increased by the folding of the Mariana Trench and the Philippine Plate. But it is the Indo-Australian Plate that gives way to incite change in these other plates, and this is what is manifesting now to those closely following the changes. Once the folding of the Pacific has occurred, Japan has been destabilized. We are not allowed to give a time frame for any of these plate movements, but would point out that it is not until the North Island of Japan experiences its strong quakes that a tsunami causing sloshing near Victoria occurs. There are clues that the New Madrid will be next.

Where the N American continent is under great stress, it has not slipped because it is held in place on both sides. The Pacific side holds due to subduction friction along the San Andreas, and the Atlantic side holds due to the Atlantic Rift's reluctance to rip open. What changes this dynamic? When S America rolls, almost in step with the folding Pacific, it tears the Atlantic Rift on the southern side. This allows Africa freedom to move and it rolls too, dropping the Mediterranean floor above Algeria. What is holding the N American continent together has thus eased, so that when the Japan adjustments are made, there is less holding the N American continent in place than before, and the New Madrid gives way. We are also not allowed to provide the time frame between the Japan quakes and New Madrid. Other than the relationship in time between the New Madrid and the European tsunami, no time frame can be given. The sequence of events is, thus:

  • a tipping Indo-Australia Plate with Indonesia sinking,
  • a folding Pacific allowing S America to roll,
  • a tearing of the south Atlantic Rift allowing Africa to roll and the floor of the Mediterranean to drop,
  • great quakes in Japan followed by the New Madrid adjustment,
  • which is followed almost instantly by the tearing of the north Atlantic Rift with consequent European tsunami.



Tipping Indo-Australia Plate with Indonesia sinking,

Folding Pacific


South American Roll


African Roll


Japan Quakes

New Madrid

European Tsunami


Due to the slowing of the 7 of 10 plate movements by the Council of Worlds the impact of some of the events described above will be lessened.

The Zetas explain:

ZetaTalk: Pace Slowed

Written May 19, 2012

The effect of the thousands of humming boxes placed along fault lines and plate borders can be seen in several incidents that have occurred since the start of the 7 of 10 plate movements. The lack of tsunami during the 7 of 10 sinking of the Sunda Plate is one such example. We predicted at the start of the 7 of 10 scenarios in late 2010 that the Sunda Plate sinking would occur within 2-3 weeks, yet it dragged on through 2011. At the time we had predicted tsunami on the Sunda Plate, in general equivalent in height to the loss of elevation for a coastline. None of this occurred due to the slower pace. 

The pace of mountain building in S America, where slowed, has still resulted in rumpling up and down the Andes, and stretch zone accidents likewise in lands to the east of the Andes. The shape of S America has clearly changed. Will the islands in the Caribbean be spared? At some point, as with the magnitude 7.9 quake in Acapulco on March 2, 2012 a significant adjustment will need to occur, and this will include depressing the Caribbean Plate so it tilts, sinking the islands and lands on that portion of the plate to the degree predicted. But the S American roll will likely continue to avoid the magnitude 8 quakes we originally predicted in deference to slow rumpling mountain building. The African roll was anticipated to be a silent roll in any case, so the slowed pace would not affect the outcome.

Will the slowed pace prevent the 7 of 10 scenarios for the Northern Hemisphere? Bowing of the N American continent has reached the point of pain, with breaking rock booming from coast to coast, but still there have been no significant quakes in the New Madrid area. Yet this is past due, and cannot be held back indefinitely. What has and will continue to occur for the Northern Hemisphere scenarios are silent quakes for Japan, which has already experienced drastic subduction under the north island of Hokkaido where mountain building is occurring as a rumple rather than a jolt. However, the anticipated New Madrid adjustment cannot be achieved without trauma. But this could potentially occur in steps and stages such that any European tsunami would be significantly lessened.

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ZetaTalk , Written March 10, 2012

 What happens when the pace of plate movement is slowed? The likelihood of tsunami is definitely reduced, as can be seen in the sinking on the Sunda Plate. The sinking occurred, and is almost complete, yet the possibility of tsunami we predicted for various regions on the Sunda Plate were avoided. The height and force of a tsunami is directly related to the degree of displacement in the sea floor, and if this happens in steps rather than all at once the displacement will be less for any given step.

This bodes well for the European tsunami. If the Council of Worlds is still imposing a slower pace on the 7 of 10 plate movements, this tsunami will definitely be lessened. The tear in the North Atlantic will be slight, each time. The amount of water pouring into this void will be less, each time. And the rebound toward the UK will likewise be less, each time. But our prediction is the worst case situation, and it also reflects what the Earth changes, unabated, would produce.

But what does a slower pace do to land masses where jolting quakes are expected? Does this reduce the overall magnitude of the quakes anticipated? Large magnitude quakes result when a catch point along plate borders is highly resistant, but snapping of rock finally results. Usually there is one place, the epicenter, where this catch point resides and a long distance along the plate border where smaller quakes have prepared the border for easy movement. A point of resistance within the body of a plate, such as the New Madrid, can likewise resist and suddenly give.

There is no way to lessen the resistance at these catch points, though the tension that accompanies such points can be reduced so that the quake itself is delayed. What this means for a slower 7 of 10 pace is that large magnitude quakes will be spread apart in time, and their relationship to our predictions thus able to be camouflaged by the establishment. Where sinking (such as the Caribbean Island of Trinidad) or spreading apart (such as to the west of the Mississippi River) are to occur, these land changes will eventually arrive. But like the sinking of the Sunda Plate, a slower pace unfortunately allows the cover-up time to maneuver and develop excuses.

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Comment by Stanislav on August 14, 2016 at 11:56pm

At least three dead in 'unprecedented and historic' Louisiana flooding


14 August, 2016. At least five people died and 20,000 people had to be rescued from their homes and cars as "unprecedented and historic" flooding swamped Louisiana.

In some areas residents waded through snake-infested waters to reach dry ground.

The slow moving storm brought up to 10 inches of rain in parts of the state on Friday. John Bel Edwards, Louisiana governor, declared a state of emergency, calling the flooding "unprecedented."

"We have record levels of flooding along rivers and creeks," he told reporters during a news conference, urging residents who have been advised to evacuate to leave their homes. The National Weather Service reported Saturday afternoon that the storming had "resulted in catastrophic flash flooding across Louisiana," and was continuing to produce very heavy rainfall.

The threat of heavy rain would expand westward with "at least a slight risk of flash flooding tonight over a large area from the southern plains to the mid-Mississippi/Ohio valleys and even the Northeast," the National Weather Service said. Showers and thunderstorms would continue into Sunday and Monday, it predicted.

Numerous rivers in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi were overflowing their banks. Alabama was also struggling with heavy rainfall. The floods killed at least three people on Friday, media reported. Among them, a man in the Louisiana town of Zachary, near the capital Baton Rouge, drowned trying to escape flood waters, local television station WAFB reported.

"We were walking out and he slipped and fell," his roommate Vernon Drummond told the station. "He went under the water. We tried to save him, but we couldn't."
In Baker, just north of Baton Rouge, 60 people were sleeping at a makeshift Red Cross shelter.

Shanita Angrum, 32, said she and her six-year-old daughter had been trapped in their home.

She told the Associated Press: "Snakes were everywhere. The whole time I was just praying for God to make sure me and my family were OK." Source:

Comment by SongStar101 on August 2, 2016 at 11:20pm

Wonder if other countries will follow suit?

Australia is going up in the world: Official coordinates will change to reflect how the country moved 5ft north in 22 years

  • Australia's tectonic plate moves faster than any other on the planet
  • This makes the country shift north by 2.7 inches (5cm) each year
  • Since the last time the coordinates were updated in 1994, it moved 5 feet
  • Next year, coordinates will change to reflect where it will be in 2020

The Australian plate is the fastest continental plate on the planet, moving northwards and slightly to the east by about 2.7 inches (7cm) each year.

Because of this movement, the continent has shifted by five feet (4.9 metres) over the past 22 years, making the country's co-ordinates slighty out of sync.

To fix this, Australia is going to adjust its official latitude and longitude, putting the majority of the country back into alignment with the world's GPS systems.

The Australian plate is the fastest continental plate on the planet, moving northwards and slightly to the east by about 2.7 inches (7cm) each year. Because of this movement, the continent has shifted by five feet (4.9 metres) over the past 22 years


The movement of the Earth's tectonic plates makes land slide and causes a build up of tension.

The Australian plate is the fastest continental plate on the planet, moving northwards and slightly to the east by about 2.7 inches (7 centimetres) each year. 

This tension drags the entire landmass of Australia closer to the equator year after year. 

Even though the movement is fractional, only 2.7 inches (7 centimetres) each year, a build up over 22 years means each point in the country is not actually where our GPS systems think it is.

The movement of the Earth's tectonic plates makes land slide and causes a build up of tension.

This tension drags the entire landmass of Australia closer to the equator year after year.

Even though the movement is fractional, only 2.7 inches (7 centimetres) each year, a build up over 22 years means each point in the country is not actually where our GPS systems think it is.

Digital maps know where a country is supposed to be based on detailed coordinates supplied by the government. 

Maps like Google Maps use satellites orbiting the globe to determine where users are, and use these coordinates to match their position to a point on a map.

Australia's local coordinate system, the Geocentric Datum of Australia (GDA), was last updated in 1994 and officials said it will be out by six feet (1.8 metres) by 2020 unless it is corrected.

Comment by Stanislav on July 18, 2016 at 9:56pm

One of worst floods hit Penang's Teluk Bahang

18 July, 2016.  Teluk Bahang came under knee-deep of water after a continuous downpour from 1pm Monday in one of the worst floodings in years. State Local Government Committee chairman Chow Kon Yeow said lightning storms and strong winds were reported.

“Flood waters rose up to 0.3 meters. “The Penang Island City Council (MBPP) and Drainage and Irrigation Department (JPS) are already in the area to provide assistance and clean up after the flood recedes,” he said. Bernama reports that Teluk Bahang area was been hit by one of the worst flash floods in years due to the heavy rains. The water level in some areas had reached above the knee and some cars had been stuck in the flood.

Locals expressed their worries as some areas had never experienced such a bad flash flood before.

One of the locals met who lived near the Teluk Awak river, Iskandar Hassan, 43, said that the water had risen quite fast and many vehicals had been stranded and water had entered several houses.

"If the rain continues, I am afraid that this will continue to happen throughout the rainy season," he said.

Teluk Bahang assemblyman Datuk Shah Headan Ayoob Hussain Shah when contacted by Bernama said his main worry was that the flash flood was being triggered by the hill clearings.

Chow when contacted said that heavy rainfall up to 190mm had been recorded in Teluk Bahang Dam and high tide had caused the Teluk Awak river to overflow its banks. The flooded areas are along Jalan Hassan Abas and the Penang Island City Council (MBPP) and Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) personnel had been sent to the flooded locations to assist the people. Chow also said that so far the flood had been recorded at 12 inches in certain places and might be higher in some other places as heavy rain was expected to last till late evening. Source:

Flash floods hit Penang area, including airport

Penang International Airport was hit by flood waters on Monday (Jul 18), after a heavy downpour caused water to seep into the arrivals hall, according to local media reports. Flights in and out of the airport remained operational.

Penang's Teluk Bahang area was hit by one of the worst flash floods in years due to heavy rainfall since Monday morning. The water level in some areas had reached above knee level and some cars were stuck in the flood. Source:

Comment by Stanislav on July 4, 2016 at 7:27pm


Lassen Peak Is Sinking, and Volcanologists Don’t Know Why

The area of subsidence in the Lassen Volcanic Center (blue) identifying by InSAR data analysis. The larger triangle is Lassen Peak, the smaller triangle is Reading Peak. The box delineates the Lassen Volcanic National Park. WALKER AND OTHERS (2016), JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

29 June, 2016. MOST PEOPLE TEND to think of the Earth’s surface as a static thing. It is solid and persistent … however, that is far from the truth. Images from earthquakes show how land can be broken and buckled with ease during one of these massive seismic events, but the surface can deform in even more subtle ways.

Take the Lassen Volcanic Center (a place near and dear to me). It last erupted in 1915, when Lassen Peak had its small but historically significant blast. After 100+ years, you might not expect that much is currently changing in the area. But data presented in a new paper by Amy Parker and others in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research shows that since the mid-1990s, the whole area has sunk!

The team examined satellite data from 1992 to 2010 and found that an area 30-40 kilometers (19-25 miles) across centered near Reading Peak (see below; just southeast of Lassen Peak) has been sinking at a rate of ~10 millimeters (~0.4 inches) per year. So, over that span the Lassen Peak area has subsided ~18 centimeters (~7 inches).

That measurement wouldn’t be possible without using satellites to detect very minute changes in the Earth’s surface over years to decades—in this case, with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, more commonly known as InSAR. This method uses precise measurements of the Earth’s surface performed by satellites that were captured some time apart and then compares them, looking for where the data (land surface elevation) no longer matches, producing interference in the images. Then these interferences are converted into values of up and down based on the extent of interference. Considering InSAR uses microwaves to determine the elevation, things like cloud cover and night don’t matter when the measurements are being taken. The only trick is you need to have the satellite pass over the same place multiple times to be able to compare the images.

InSAR is advantageous because it can not only measure small changes on the elevation of the Earth’s surface, down to centimeter scale, but also because it can look at large geographic areas. The method can survey wide areas impacted by motion on a fault during an earthquake to see how the land surface has moved. It can examine entire volcanic arcs (or large stretches of them) to see which volcanoes might be showing signs of changes. Of course, our data set is limited due to the coverage of the satellites that can do these measurements (there aren’t many) and the fact that InSAR hasn’t been employed for more than a few decades.

Lassen Peak in northern California. The area around the active Cascade volcano has been sinking since the early 1990s.ERIK KLEMETTI. Source:

Now, how long has this sinking been happening at the Lassen Volcanic Center? Parker and others looked at land-based geodetic data collected by leveling for the last 70 years and found no measurable evidence for subsidence prior to the early 1990s. Now, it could have been subsiding at a very low rate that wasn’t measured, although the total across that span should have been noticed if it was sinking. So, it seems that this sinking is a (geologically) recent event in the Lassen area.

When you have geophysical data such as this, one thing you want to do is try to model the shape of the area causing the changing of the Earth’s surface. In this case, Parker and others estimate that the source causing the sinking is a singular point (or centered around a point) that is ~8.3 kilometers (5.2 miles) beneath the volcanic center. It isn’t directly under Lassen Peak, but offset to the southeast under some of the more hydrothermally active areas in the Lassen Peak area. It is at a depth that is roughly the same as where we think magma is being stored underneath the Lassen Volcanic Center, so that gives us that first clue to why the area is sinking.

Trying to identify why Lassen Peak and vicinity is sinking is a little tricky. As I just alluded, the most likely culprit is cooling and crystallizing of magma after the 1914-17 eruptions of Lassen Peak. As magma cools, it loses volume, so any new magma that trigger the eruption over 100 years ago may be slowly losing volume.

This can’t alone account for the sinking, especially the timing as it appears to have started over 70 years after the eruption ended. You might expect that the sinking would have happened soon after the eruption ended (because you’ve expelled all that volume of magma and volcanic gas). However, as I mentioned above, Walker and others think that this sinking started only in the early 1990s. So, what else could be helping the subsidence beyond potential cooling of magma?

You can also change the flow of hydrothermal fluids (water heated by magma at depth) underneath the area to prompt subsidence. There is some loose correlation between the times of greater subsidence between 2004-07 and more earthquakes within the area of the hydrothermal system, so there could be connection there. There is even the chance that the M7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992, centered about 840 kilometers (520 miles) away, might have started the ball rolling as that earthquake seems to have triggered a M3.5 earthquake at Lassen within 13 minutes. However, these events are still correlations rather than causations without further study.

That being said, some of the sinking might not be related to the magmatism at the Lassen Volcanic Center at all. Local faults related to the Basin and Range province, where North America is stretching, are causing a deepening basin around the Lassen Volcanic Center and the warmer nature of the crust in the area (thanks to Lassen and friends) might mean this area is susceptible to more sinking compared to cooler areas. Medicine Lake in northern California is one of the other volcanoes in the Cascades that is also sinking. Studies there point the finger at tectonic forces along with cooling of a magma body at depth, so this combination might be a common occurrence in the Cascades.

Now, if you read this and think “huh, sounds like geologists don’t know much about why a volcano subsides”, you’d be right. Although dozens of volcanoes worldwide are subsiding (based on InSAR and other observations), for most we don’t have a good grasp on exactly why. Some have had recent eruptions, others haven’t erupted for millennia. Careful GPS surveys of these volcanoes (in cahoots with InSAR data) are needed to figure out all the vertical and horizontal pieces involved in the subsidence. Maybe then we can parse out each piece—magmatic, tectonic, hydrothermal—and then use these data to tell us about how volcanoes are behaving between eruptions and whether these changes can give us hints as to what might be next Source:

Sinking Atlantic Coastline Meets Rapidly Rising Seas

Rates of land subsidence, according to new study.
Credit: Karegar et al., "Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: Insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data," GRL, 2016.

The 5,000 North Carolinians who call Hyde County home live in a region several hundred miles long where coastal residents are coping with severe changes that few other Americans have yet to endure.

Geological changes along the East Coast are causing land to sink along the seaboard. That’s exacerbating the flood-inducing effects of sea level rise, which has been occurring faster in the western Atlantic Ocean than elsewhere in recent years.

New research using GPS and prehistoric data has shown that nearly the entire coast is affected, from Massachusetts to Florida and parts of Maine.

Land subsidence and sea level rise are worsening flooding in Annapolis, Md., and elsewhere along the East Coast

The study, published this month in Geophysical Research Letters, outlines a hot spot from Delaware and Maryland into northern North Carolina where the effects of groundwater pumping are compounding the sinking effects of natural processes. Problems associated with sea level rise in that hot spot have been — in some places — three times as severe as elsewhere.

“The citizens of Hyde County have dealt with flooding issues since the incorporation of Hyde County in 1712,” said Kris Noble, the county’s planning and economic development director. “It’s just one of the things we deal with.”

On average, climate change is causing seas to rise globally by more than an inch per decade. That rate is increasing as rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more heat, melting ice and expanding ocean waters. Seas are projected to rise by several feet this century — perhaps twice that much if the collapse of parts of the Antarctic ice sheet worsens.

Ocean circulation changes linked to global warming and other factors have been causing seas to rise much faster than that along the sinking mid-Atlantic coastline — more than 3.5 inches per decade from 2002 to 2014 north of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, a recent study showed.

The relatively fast rate of rise in sea levels along the East Coast may have been a blip — for now. The rate of rise recorded so far this century may become the norm during the decades ahead. “Undoubtedly, these are the rates we’re heading towards,” said Simon Engelhart, a University of Rhode Island geoscientist.

Engelhart drew on data from prehistoric studies and worked with two University of South Florida, Tampa scientists to combine it with more modern GPS data to pinpoint the rates at which parts of the Eastern seaboard have been sinking.

Their study revealed that Hyde County — a sprawling but sparsely populated farming and wilderness municipality north of the Pamlico River — is among the region’s fastest-sinking areas, subsiding at a little more than an inch per decade.

Taken together, that suggests the sea has been rising along the county’s shorelines recently at a pace greater than 4.5 inches per decade — a globally extraordinary rate. Similar effects are playing out in places that include Sandy Hook in New Jersey and Norfolk in Virginia, the analysis shows.

Gloucester Point, Va., which is home to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, was also found to be sinking at a similar rate. Scientists there have been “noticing impacts,” said Carl Hershner, a wetlands expert who has worked at the institute since 1971. “Flooding in our boat basin is one piece of evidence.”

An inventory of wetlands and shorelines is being developed by the institute that may help reveal the impacts of subsidence and sea level rise locally. “There’s rather compelling evidence of marshes losing area,” Hershner said.

The main cause of East Coast subsidence is natural — the providential loss of an ice sheet. Some 15,000 years ago, toward the end of an ice age, the Laurentide Ice Sheet stretched over most of Canada and down to modern-day New England and the Midwest. Its heavy ice compressed the earth beneath it, causing surrounding land to curl upward.

Since the ice sheet melted, the land beneath it has been springing back up. Like a see-saw, that’s causing areas south of the former ice sheet to sink back down, including Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.

The data suggests that some land in coastal Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, on the other hand, is rising slightly, although not quickly enough to keep up with the global rate of sea level rise.

The study shows that subsidence is occurring twice as fast now than in centuries past in a hot spot from Fredericksburg, Va. south to Charleston, which the scientists mostly blame on groundwater pumping.

“If you draw down your aquifer, the land above the aquifer kind of collapses,” said Timothy Dixon, a University of South Florida professor who helped produce the study. “If that happens to be on the coast, that can also increase your flood potential.”

In areas south of Virginia, groundwater levels appear to have been recovering this decade as well pumping has been reduced, slowing the subsidence problem. Virginia says it’s working on the problem.

“In most places, you wouldn’t notice it; it wouldn’t matter,” said Jack Eggleston, a U.S. Geological Survey scientists who has researched the effects of groundwater pumping on the region’s topography. “But in terms of practical effects and practical problems, it does matter when you’re right on the shoreline.”

The compounding problems of land subsidence and sea-level rise have been pronounced in states where legislatures led by conservative majorities have been reluctant to discuss sea level rise and have been dismissive of the science behind climate change.

The Tar Heel State’s legislature drew criticism from climate scientists and others in 2012 over a new law that barred state officials from basing regulations on sea-level rise projections until mid-2016.

“There’s a strong level of denial about the existence of the problem,” said Pricey Harrison, a Democrat in the North Carolina assembly who opposed the bill. “You can’t talk about climate change, you can’t talk about sustainability if you want any legislation to move.”

To help win support for the bill from Democrats, it was amended to require the state to refine sea level rise projections that were first published in 2010. After lawmakers approved the legislation, then-Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, allowed it to become law without her signature.

The refined sea level rise projections were finalized and published by an independent science panel last month, warning of heavy impacts on coastal communities.

The science panel report concluded that tides could rise by 6 to 11 inches over 30 years in northern parts of the state if greenhouse gas pollution rates continue, or an inch less than that if they’re substantially reined in. The estimate included projections for land subsidence and rising seas. In the state’s southeast, the panel projected a rise of 4 to 9 inches.

Even without future warming, high tide flooding is already getting worse along the East and Gulf coasts, where subsidence and erosion are rife. The problems become most plainly clear during king tides.

“We can have up to 4-foot tides,” said Christine Voss, a University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ecologist involved with a project that’s documenting the effects of king tides. “People are noticing that these flooding events are occurring more frequently, and perhaps with greater depth of inundation.”

Although the state is barred from basing any regulations on the new projections before the summer, the estimates are available for counties and local cities, which are not directly affected by the 2012 law.

During the decades ahead, those local planners will be grappling with the profound global crisis of sea-level rise — along with natural and human-caused factors that intensify its damages.

By late century, global sea level rise could be so rapid as to make the local effects of subsidence seem trivial, particularly if current pollution levels continue, which recent research has shown could trigger runaway melting in Antarctica.

“Rates of local subsidence may be important now,” said Andrew Ashton, a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientist who researches changes in coastal environments. “But they’d be swamped by sea level rise for most projections by mid-century.”

The challenges that lie ahead threaten to swamp towns, farms and wilderness areas, and to do so more quickly along the Eastern seaboard than in other regions.

For most of the coastline, adapting to the rapid changes ahead may require expensive projects — private and public works that construct or improve coastline defenses, such as seawalls, marshes and oyster beds, or that relocate homes and infrastructure out of harm’s way.

For some communities, that will mean confronting problems that had nary been imagined. For others, it may involve finding news ways to cope with old threats.

“We’re very active and very conscious about our water and where it pumps to, where it drains to,” said Noble, of Hyde County. “It’s just a way of life here.” Source:

Letter writer: Land subsidence also playing a role in sea-level rise

Letters and columns in The Capital raised alarms about increased "nuisance flooding" in Annapolis due to global warming. But global warming is not the only factor in flooding.

A column (May 15) mentioned subsidence as a factor, but didn't indicate its magnitude. "Chesapeake Bay Land Subsidence and Sea Level Change, An Evaluation of Past and Present Trends and Future Outlook," a 2010 report to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, examines changes for relative sea level and absolute sea level (relative to the approximate center of the earth).

It said satellite data showed "the rate of global sea level change is not uniform (or even positive everywhere) but varies from one region of the world's oceans to another." In some regions, land areas are subsiding, while in others they are undergoing uplift. The report goes on to say that subsidence is due to a number of factors, such as withdrawal of ground water.

A table in the report documents measurements of relative water level, 1928-1999, at five stations in the Chesapeake Bay, including Annapolis. It also lists rates of vertical land movement as measured by GPS, 2001-2005, with large subsidence rates at four of the stations.

The estimated relative sea level mean for Annapolis was about 3.53 millimeters a year; the estimated mean subsidence was about 3.05 mm/year. So the net effect was that the absolute sea level rate of increase was only about 0.48 mm/year. The report draws the general conclusion that "about 53 percent of the relative sea level rise measured at bay water level stations is, on average, due to local subsidence."

This effect is not just local. The U.S. Geological Survey indicates that subsidence has affected much of the land along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Source:


Mekong Delta faces worsening land subsidence

A road subsides in Inter-provincial Road 965 in U Minh Thuong district, the Mekong Delta province of Kien Giang.

The Mekong Delta region has been facing worsening land subsidence, which has been compounded by the prolonged drought in the region this year.

At the Mekong Delta Forum 2016 recently held in HCM City, economic experts said the region has been experiencing major impacts from climate change and human activity, including land subsidence from three to five centemetres each year.
The increasingly serious land sinkage and landslides in the region are most clearly seen in the southernmost province of Ca Mau. Landslides have taking place at 87 canals for a total length of 18 kilometres and cracks have appeared on around 1,000 kilometres of roads that are in a high danger of subsidence.
In Kien Giang, Ca Mau’s neighbouring province, a buffer zone in Minh Thuan and An Minh Bac communes in U Minh Thuong district has 49 houses destroyed by land sinking, and 11 others developing cracks and facing collapse.
Landslides happened at 11 points with a total length of 350m on provincial road 965. Another eight points face landslide risks.
In order to figure out the reason behind the land sinkage and landslides, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development dispatched a team to the region.
According to the initial assessment from the team, drought already weakened land that suffers pressure from construction and traffic is the main reason behind widespread land-sinking and landslide.
According to the Mekong River Commission, hydroelectricity dams in the upper stream of the Mekong River keeping most of alluvium with an estimate of 65.5 billion cu.m of sediment by 2030 is also a reason leading land loss.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Tran, former deputy chairman of the National Assembly’s Committee for External Relations and senior expert of the Council for National Science and Technology Policy, said the impact of dams to sediment in the Mekong River is tremendous and once all dams go into operation, from one-third to half of the total sediment running down to the Mekong River basin will be retained and that will lead to changes in the topography of the river, river-bed, river-bottom and estuary, and land sinking.
The overexploitation of underground water is the other reason contributing to land sinking and landslide.
According to Nguyen Van Tranh, Deputy Director of the Ca Mau Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, up to 90 percent of people in Ca Mau are exploiting underground water for daily and production use.
At the Mekong Delta Forum 2016, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc asked regional provinces to have the dyke and reservoir planning in a safe and convenient for agriculture and production manner while taking measures to restore coastal mangrove forests. Source:

Comment by Stanislav on July 4, 2016 at 7:27pm

Africa Roll


Experts raise alarm over impending earthquake

29 June, 2016. Drillers warn on unregulated activities of practitioners

Experts have warned of an impending damaging earthquake in the South-West region and other parts of the country in the next four years, precisely before year 2020.

In the same vein, the Association of Water-well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) has warned that lack of regulation guiding the abstraction of underground water will induce earthquake and sea water intrusion in the country.

The borehole drillers association said the manner by which people drill underground water without proper regulation and adherence to standard practice in many parts of the country would in a matter of time induce earthquake and sea water intrusion, which could make drinking water difficult to get.

AWDROP National President, Mr. Michael Ale, stated this during a state of nation, water press conference, a quarterly update on the state of water resources in Nigeria meant to educate and sensitise people on the current status of water resources, vis a vis its development, management and issues relating to its institutional arrangement and investment.

According to Ale, AWDROP lamented the many failed borehole projects executed by past governments without proper management procedure for community ownership and sustainability.

He said many of such borehole projects did not last more than a year after commissioning because they were not designed to meet with the current standards and adaptive nature of the needs of the beneficiary community.

While calling on the Federal Government to urgently address the warning on impending earth tremor in Saki, Oyo State, it also observed the indiscriminate drilling practice persistence and the industry being turned into an all comers affairs.

He promised the readiness of the association to partner with state government on rejuvenating and revitalising abandoned borehole projects across the country.

Meanwhile, experts have also warned against some damaging earthquakes that they predicted may affect some parts of the country if the right proactive strategies are not adopted towards preventing the impending disasters.

This warning was contained in a report by Dr. Adepelumi Adekunle Abraham of the Department of Geology, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State after an earth-moving tremor occurred at Shaki town, in the Shaki West Local Government, Oyo State.

Adepelumi, a geologist, who was also instrumental to a similar research after a similar tremor occurred in Abeokuta, Ogun State in September 11, 2009, suggested at the time that the risk of the quake in South-West region was 2.8 per cent in his new report.

Adepelumi’s reports stated, among others: “After the earth tremor of 2009 in southwestern Nigeria that was felt in several towns and villages in Oyo, Osun and Ogun states, a detailed short-term probabilistic earthquake prediction was carried out by our team, our findings indicate the probability of earthquake occurrence in the study area between the year 2009 and 2028 increased from 2.8 per cent to 91.1 per cent.” Source:

Oyo residents flee as 'earthquake' hits more communities

3 July, 2016.  Several residents have abandoned their homes in panic following reported earth tremors at Koomi, Medina, Balako, Salam Salam as well as , Dauru-Salam communities in Saki, Oyo State.

NigerianEye gathered that residents fled the communities out of fear of the likelihood of earthquake as the noise being heard from beneath the earth surface was frightening.

Shakiru Adelabu, a furniture maker based in Balako, one of the affected communities, said the noise didn’t start recently, it has been on the increase in the past days. He added that the persistent noise from below the earth surface had led to the departure of a good number of people from Balako and Medina, where the tremor is most noticeable.

We have been hearing the frightening sound for a while now but it became louder during the week and lot of people decided to relocate out of fear. Some people came from the city to take their people away and they told us it could be an earthquake coming. This made more people to pack their things. The tremor is really frightening and nothing has been done to stop it,” he said.

The Deputy Speaker of Oyo State who is an indigene of one of the communities in the area, Hon. Musa Abdulwasiu, raised an alarm during the week, calling on the state and federal agencies to help profer solution to the tremor. While assuring the people that help will come, he appealed to relevant authorities to act fast to forestal possible dangers.

“ I have been to the affected areas with very senior members of the Geology Department from University of Ibadan. They hinted that there is likelihood of heavy movement of rocks in the water channel beneath the ground in those affected areas. They also advised that evacuation of residents of affected areas is the only solution to tremor and possible earthquake after establishing degree of tremor. Honestly, they told us that no one could ascertain for now the degree of the tremor and whether it will lead to earthquake or not,” he said.

But the Oyo State Government has assured residents that efforts were on to avert environmental hazards. Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources, Chief Isaac Ishola gave the assurance while monitoring the areas affected by an earth tremor in Saki-West Local Government area. He explained that the visit was on-the-spot assessment to ascertain the earth tremor that occurred in some parts of the town and to proffer solutions to forestall the occurrence of natural disaster in the area.

He noted that findings by experts indicated that the earth tremor was a fore-shake, which was not capable of causing the earthquake. Ishola said the state government would liaise with the Federal Government to procure the seismic machine needed to check the gravity of tremor.

But in spite of the assurances, more communities are being deserted in the area as residents of neighboring communities, out of fear, are also leaving their abode to seek safer accommodations farther away from the tremor.

Consequently, communities like Afote, Oba Abimbola, Oke Suna, Ahere Oloke, Aroje and Elegede are daily losing their residents to the ongoing exodus. Spaeking to The Nation about the growing migration, Hon. Jamiu Abdulrasheed, a retired teacher resident in Aroje, said the migration is largely caused by unconfirmed reports that some of the experts who visited the place advised the government to evacuate the people because of a looming danger.

“We are hearing different types of reports. People are spreading a rumor that some of the experts who visited the place advised the government to evacuate the people because of a looming danger. That is why people are running away. But I learnt that our own communities here are not affected. Anyway, I will wait until relevant agencies come here to tell me to move my family,” he said. Source:

Nigeria: Earthquake Alert - Govt, States Urged On Redemptive Measures

28 June, 2016. The Nigerian Association of Water-Well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) has called on the Federal Government to take measures that could reduce the effects of the earthquake that has been predicted for Shaki, Oyo State.

Researchers from the Department of Geology, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, led by Dr Adepelumi Adekunle Abraham, had submitted in its report titled 'Preliminary Assessment of Earth Tremor Occurrence in Shaki Area, Shaki West Local Government, Oyo State, indicating an impending 'damaging earthquake' in the next four years.

AWDROP, at a press conference addressed by its National President, Mr. Michael Ale, lamented that lack of Underground Water Abstraction Regulation in Nigeria could easily induce earthquake and sea water intrusion, "hence the need for government to ensure strict compliance in the implementation of code of practice in borehole drilling" in the country.

Ale said his Association had been informed of the salt water intrusion affecting underground water usage and subsidence along the land-ocean boundaries in shoreline areas like Lagos, Port-Harcourt, Warri, Bayelsa and Cross River State and advised the Minister of Water Resources, Engr. Suleiman Adamu, to create an integrated groundwater management modelling tools to improve sustainable management efforts and optimize resources utilization. Source:

Comment by Stanislav on June 24, 2016 at 10:12pm

China’s sinking feeling: Soil under Beijing gradually collapsing - study


24 June, 2016. Aside from its unsightly industrial pollution problem, China’s government has another potentially serious issue on its hands - the capital Beijing is reportedly in danger of becoming a massive sinkhole.

A study of the movements beneath Beijing carried out by Chinese academics and a Spanish engineer has revealed that in some parts of the sprawling city soil is falling away at a rate of between 8-11cm per year.

The city center appears to be the worst affected area, with the gradual displacement taking place below many of Beijing’s densely populated residential districts. Carried out using satellite radar technology, the study compared images of the region’s landscape between 2003 and 2011.

Researchers involved in the study say that because of the “overexploitation” or overuse of groundwater, Beijing has been “suffering from land subsidence since 1935.” They are currently assessing the potential threat to buildings and roadways from the earth subsidence. According to the United States Geological Survey, the phenomenon - a sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface - is a growing global problem, exacerbated by human interference involving practices such as drainage of the soil and underground mining.

“We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure in the Beijing Plain,” study authors Chen Mi and Li Xiaojuan told the Guardian.

Chinese media company Sina estimates Beijing uses 3.5 billion cubic meters of water per year, with a significant increase required to sustain it in the future.

China is currently undertaking a $62bn project to divert the equivalent of more than 17 million Olympic sized swimming pools of water (44 billion cubic meters) per year from the Yangtze River to the urbanised north of the country.

The South North Water Transfer Project utilises canals to bring water to “drought-prone”or parched areas in the north, according to a website affiliated to the Chinese government. Source:

Beijing has fallen: China's capital sinking by 11cm a year, satellite study warns

24 June, 2016. China’s capital is known for its horrendous smog and occasional sandstorms. Yet one of its major environmental threats lies underground: Beijing is sinking.

Excessive pumping of groundwater is causing the geology under the city to collapse, according to a new study using satellite imagery that reveals parts of Beijing – particularly its central business district – are subsiding each year by as much as 11 centimetres, or more than four inches.

The authors of the study warn that continued subsidence poses a safety threat to the city of more than 2o million, with “a strong impact on train operations” one of the predictions.

The study on Beijing’s subsidence has been published in the peer-reviewed journal Remote Sensing and is based on InSAR, a type of radar that monitors land elevation changes. It was written by a team of seven researchers, including three who explained their findings to the Guardian: Chinese academics Chen Mi and Li Xiaojuan, and Spanish engineer Roberto Tomas.

“We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure (eg high-speed railways) in the Beijing plain,” they said in an email to the Guardian. “Hopefully a paper summarising our findings will come out later this year.”

Beijing sits in a dry plain where groundwater has accumulated over millennia. As wells are drilled and the water table drops, the underlying soil compacts, much like a dried-out sponge.

The study finds that the entire city is sinking but the subsidence is most pronounced in Beijing’s Chaoyang district, which has boomed since 1990 with skyscrapers, ringroads and other development. The researchers say the uneven nature of the subsidence in some areas poses risks to buildings and other infrastructure.

Tens of thousands of water wells are thought to exist in and around Beijing, many of them used in farming and landscaping. The state has regulatory power over installation of wells but is inconsistent in applying it, according to one leading Chinese environmentalist.

“There are some rules but the enforcement is doubtful,” said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs in Beijing. Ma said he wasn’t surprised subsidence was relatively high in the Chaoyang district given its rapid growth of recent decades. He expected it to keep moving east as the city sprawled in that direction.

In 2015 China inaugurated a mega-engineering project aimed at mitigating Beijing’s water crisis. The state completed construction of the South-North Water Diversion, a £48bn, 2,400km network of canals and tunnels, designed to divert 44.8bn cubic metres of water to the capital.

Even before the canal began delivering water, Beijing was easing up on some groundwater pumping. In January of 2015 the Chaoyang district announced plans to phase out 367 water wells, reducing the use of 10m cubic meters of underground water.

Experts say it is still too early to know if the canal’s water deliveries will help recharge the aquifer and slow Beijing’s rate of subsidence. In the meantime concerns about impacts to buildings and rail systems continue. To prevent derailments a 2015 study recommended that China ban new water wells near completed high-speed rail lines [PDF].

Other cities around the world are experiencing subsidence caused by excessive water pumping or other factors. Mexico City is sinking by up to 28cm a year and Jakarta is subsiding at a similar rate. Bangkok is dropping annually by as much as 12cm, similar to Beijing, according to the Remote Sensing researcher Source:

Comment by Stanislav on June 24, 2016 at 10:07pm

'Clock is ticking' for megaquake in Missouri that could cause 'all hell to break loose' across Middle America

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long, and experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.

  • The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long
  • Experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi

While San Andreas and Cascadia are well known for their potential to cause a megaquakes, researchers have warned a little known fault in the midwest is also long overdue a tremor.
The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long, and experts say a quake would impact seven states - Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.
They claim 'all hell would break loose,' with 715,000 buildings damaged and 2.6m people left without power.

The Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois released a report in 2009, which suggested the effects of a force seven or stronger quake from the fault line.
Amr Elnashai, the study's lead author, wrote 'All hell will break loose.'
The 150-mile (240 km) long fault system, which extends into five states, stretches southward from Cairo, Illinois; through Hayti, Caruthersville and New Madrid in Missouri; through Blytheville into Marked Tree in Arkansas.
It also covers a part of West Tennessee, near Reelfoot Lake, extending southeast into Dyersburg. It is southwest of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.
Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface, researchers believe.
The area has not seen significant earthquakes for more than 200 years.
In the winter of 1811 and 1812 there were three earthquakes of magnitude 7 - as high as 7.7 - and a series of aftershocks across the American Midwest.

  • WHERE IS IT?The 150-mile (240 km) long fault system, which extends into five states, stretches southward from Cairo, Illinois; through Hayti, Caruthersville and New Madrid in Missouri; through Blytheville into Marked Tree in Arkansas.It also covers a part of West Tennessee, near Reelfoot Lake, extending southeast into Dyersburg. It is southwest of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface.

The results were catastrophic, with the course of the Mississippi being diverted, chasms ripping open, and volcanoes of sand and water bursting through the ground.
According to the Central US Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), earthquakes in the central or eastern United States effect much larger areas than earthquakes of similar magnitude in the western United States.
For example, the San Francisco, California, earthquake of 1906 (magnitude 7.8) was felt 350 miles away in the middle of Nevada, whereas the New Madrid earthquake of December 1811 rang church bells in Boston, Massachusetts, 1,000 miles away.
Differences in geology east and west of the Rocky Mountains cause this strong contrast.
Scientists now estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.0 or larger earthquake occurring in this seismic zone within any 50 year period is 25% to 40%, and say such an earthquake could hit the Mississippi Valley at any time.

  • Most of the seismicity is located between 3 and 15 miles (4.8 and 24.1 km) beneath the Earth's surface, researchers believeThe Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois released a report in 2009, which suggested the effects of a force seven or stronger quake from the fault line.Amr Elnashai, the study's lead author, wrote 'All hell will break loose.'Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region.About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes.Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation, and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines.Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure.Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone.There is extensive damage and substantial travel delays in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue as well as evacuation.Moreover roughly 15 major bridges are unusable.Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced and 2 million people seek temporary shelter.Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount.

James Wilkinson, director of the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), told The Atlantic the greatest threat might come from the Mississippi River newly unleashed from its engineered prison of levees.
'The thing that, to me, makes the river scary is how much industry we have along it: there's power plants, there's chemical plants, there's ports,' he said.
'And the river might change course altogether.'
'So if the levees are already jeopardised either by overtopping or saturation, where the water's been there for quite a while, and then you get a shake to it?
'You know, the river's just gonna take the path of least resistance. And who knows whether that's right through these communities.
'In a massive earthquake we could lose a good part of Western Kentucky, we could lose a good part of Arkansas or southern Missouri.'
'The clock's ticking.'
But not all seismologists agree.
Seth Stein, based in Evanston, Illinois, has researched the fault line for 30 years, and told The Atlantic the warnings were 'dangerous nonsense'.
He set up GPS receivers along the fault line and found the land was moving two millimetres a year, if at all, meaning there is next to no strain within it.
In 1999, FEMA identified four hazards in the United States that, were they consummated in all their destructive wonder, would be worthy of the title 'catastrophic.'
They were: a major earthquake hitting Los Angeles, a major hurricane hitting Miami, a major hurricane hitting New Orleans (check), and a giant earthquake hitting the Central US.

the New Madrid earthquake of December 1811 rang church bells in Boston, Massachusetts, 1,000 miles away.

  • THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles. Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region. The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.

A recent study found due to the San Andreas Fault System, the Earth's crust is constantly moving.
It's been thought that large-scale motion has gradually been occurring in the crust that straddles this fault system – now, a new study using GPS data has revealed 'lobes' of movement nearly 125 miles wide.
While the vertical component of GPS data has typically been ignored in tectonic studies on the fault, the researchers say these findings indicate it can be used to improve understanding of how these structures behave.
The crust surrounding the San Andreas Fault in Southern California is moving a few millimetres every year in wide lobes of uplift and subsidence, according to the study.
To differentiate between regional tectonic movement and shorter-scale, local motion, researchers from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa (UHM), the University of Washington, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) analysed data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory's array of GPS instruments.
The instruments are able to detect both vertical and horizontal motions of the crust, whether it be subtle creeping, or large, sudden movements from earthquakes.
Using a comprehensive statistical technique, the researchers discovered a pattern of large-scale vertical motions of the local crust from the data.
This type of movement is influenced by tectonic motion, local surface geology, precipitation, and even groundwater pumping.

  • PLANS FOR THE 'BIG ONE' Federal, state and military officials have been working together to draft plans to be followed when the 'Big One' happens. These contingency plans reflect deep anxiety about the potential gravity of the looming disaster: upward of 14,000 people dead in the worst-case scenarios, 30,000 injured, thousands left homeless and the region's economy setback for years, if not decades. Julian Lozos, an assistant geophysics professor at California State University, claimed there is a strong chance this quake will coincide with one along the adjacent San Jacinto fault line, which runs through more heavily-populated cities. Both fault lines are shown above Julian Lozos, an assistant geophysics professor at California State University, claimed there is a strong chance this quake will coincide with one along the adjacent San Jacinto fault line, which runs through more heavily-populated cities. Both fault lines are shown above As a response, what planners envision is a deployment of civilian and military personnel and equipment that would eclipse the response to any natural disaster that has occurred so far in the US. There would be waves of cargo planes, helicopters and ships, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, emergency officials, mortuary teams, police officers, firefighters, engineers, medical personnel and other specialists. The response will be orders of magnitude larger than Hurricane Katrina or Super Storm Sandy,' said Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington State Army National Guard.

While the San Andreas GPS data has been publicly available for more than a decade, the vertical component of the measurements had largely been ignored in tectonic investigations because of difficulties in interpreting the noise data,' said Samuel Howell, doctoral candidate at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) and lead author of the study.
This aerial view shows aportion of the San Andreas fault in California Sierra Madre Mountains, midway between Bakersfield and Santa Barbara. Using a comprehensive statistical technique, researchers discovered a pattern of large-scale vertical motions of the local crust from the data

'Using this technique, we were able to break down the noisy signals to isolate a simple vertical motion pattern that curiously straddled the San Andreas Fault.'
Previous models have predicted such large-scale motion, and the researchers say the new analysis has found a pattern of similar magnitude and direction.
This new understanding will help to create seismic hazard estimates as scientists look out for signs of the next big earthquake from the San Andreas Fault.

  • THREAT OF 'THE BIG ONE'The 'Big One' is a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater that is expected to happen along the San Andreas fault. Such a quake is expected to produce devastation to human civilization within about 50-100 miles of the quake zone, especially in urban areas like Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

And, they say it will allow for more precise mapping of the large-scale motion that comes from the next significant rupture.
'We were surprised and thrilled when this statistical method produced a coherent velocity field similar to the one predicted by our physical earthquake cycle models,' said Bridget Smith-Konter, associate professor at UHM SOEST and co-author on the study.
'The powerful combination of a priori model predictions and a unique analysis of vertical GPS data led us to confirm that the build-up of century-long earthquake cycle forces within the crust are a dominant source of the observed vertical motion signal.' Source:

Comment by Kojima on June 23, 2016 at 5:15pm

* Monitoring of Ground Motion in REV

[African Roll and Mediterranean Drop]

GE.EIL: GEOFON Station Eilat, Israel; 29.67 N, 34.95 E 

[2016/06/01 - 06/22]

IU.ANTO: Ankara, Turkey; 39.87 N, 32.79 E

[2016/06/17 - 06/21]

Comment by Stanislav on June 21, 2016 at 10:09pm

Indonesia unseasonal floods past month

Tidal flood flood the village Kalibuntu Probolinggo district, East Java district Kraksaan 06/07/2016. No casualties JIW. Source:

A pilgrim crossing the inundation of seawater or tidal submerging the tomb in Kampung Tambakrejo, North Semarang, June 2, 2016. Due to the high abrasion so coastline jutting into fishing villages and soak tombs in the region. TEMPO / Budi Purwanto. Source:

Rob or flood tide that reached its peak in mid-June is getting soaking the residential area on the north coast of Java. As high as 60 cm rob submerging Tambakrejo region, Gayamsari District, Semarang, Central Java, on Tuesday (06/14/2016). Tambakrejo is the most northern village situated in the city of Semarang, and is often hit by rob. Source:

Rob Floods Soak House Fishermen in Belawan. Source:

BMKG CILACAP Remind Flood Rob Still Happen Again Tomorrow. Source:

Floods soak rob a dozen homes in the district of Malang, MTV - Miski. Source:

The atmosphere of the floods that hit the area of Housing Pantai Mutiara, Jakarta, Saturday (4/6). The high tide caused levees in Jalan Mutiara 1, Pluit, Penjaringan, about 50 meters long collapsed. ( M Surya). Source:

Residents use a motor vehicle to break through the flood tide in the village of Ujong Blang, Lhokseumawe, Aceh, Wednesday (25/5). A number of huts and roads inundated shore tide that swept the coastal areas Ujong Blang beach, Lhokseumawe. Source:

Tidal flood in Talbot Village, Earth Sane, Bandar Lampung, Wednesday (08/06/2016). There were 233 homes affected by floods. LAMPUNG POST / ASRUL MALIK. Source:

Coastal Flood Rob lunge Jumiang Pamekasan. Source:

Flooding in the area of housing in Padang. (Desrian eristha). 21/06. Source:

A number of areas hit by high waves and tidal flood. 10 June, 2016.(Google translate) Source:

9 June, 2016. Flood Rob and Tidal Wave Landa 24 Cities in Java, hundreds of Damaged BuildingsGoogle translate

Based on preliminary data compiled by the Post's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reports Disaster Management Agency (BPBD), there are 24 districts / cities experiencing tidal flooding and tidal waves.

"According to the BMKG predicted that high waves and the tide rose on Wednesday (08/06/2016), the incidence of tidal flooding and tidal waves had happened in several regions in Indonesia," said Head of Data Information and Public Relations BNPB Sutopo Purwo Nugroho through a written statement Thursday (06/09/2016).

The area experiencing tidal flooding and tidal waves that are Kulon Progo, Gunung Kidul, Bantul, Tasikmalaya, Pangandaran and Cilacap.

Additionally, Pekalongan, Purworejo, Wonogiri, Semarang, Pacitan, Banyuwangi, Jember, Terri, Malang, Tulungagung, Lumajang, Gresik, Tuban, Surabaya, Pemekasan, Probolinggo, and Jakarta.

According to Sutopo, the coastal areas in the south of Java suffered a more severe impact by the tidal wave and tidal flood. Hundreds of buildings, including houses, gazebo, stalls, beach embankments, and building on the beach were damaged.

Even in Lumajang there were 300 souls of children and women displaced. Similarly, in Pekalongan, a total of 891 community mental refuge at 11 evacuation point. Around 5,937 houses were flooded in the district rob Tirto, Wiradesa, Wonokerto and Siwalan. Severe damage area is the south coast of Yogyakarta.

About 15 coastal tourist area in Yogyakarta was damaged due to exposure to waves as high as 5-7 meters. The shore excursions are Trisik Beach, Bugel, Glagah, Congot, Drini, Sadranan, Ngandong, Sundak, Somendang, Round Rice, Pok Tunggal, Gesing, During, and Watu Watu New Beetle in Gunung Kidul, Bantul and Kulon Progo.

In the coastal tourist area in Gunung Kidul there are 101 damaged gazebo, 21 stalls broken, damaged three buildings and several talud SAR. While in Kulon Progo damage include 54 stalls, seven boats, 5 shrimp and some tourist buildings. While in Bantul damage include 30 stalls, boat and post. The same thing happened in Karangrejo Beach and Beach Boom in Banyuwangi in East Java, where 73 houses destroyed by the waves.

"There were no casualties in the incident. It is estimated that the economic losses reached billions of rupiah" said Sutopo.

Sutopo said the cause of the high wave phenomenon is the influence of astronomical occurrence of earth, moon and sun are in one straight line, resulting in rising sea levels.

This coincides with a high positive anomalies in sea level by 15-20 cm. In addition due to two things is also reinforced by the raised square propagation of subtropical high pressure center in southwest Australia.

It is estimated that high waves and tidal flooding is still potentially up to several days ahead.

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) has predicted up to a day ahead (10/06/2016) tingggi wave from 2.50 to 4.0 m potentially in the Andaman Sea, waters north and west of Aceh, Simeulue Islands waters west, until Mentawai Islands, Bengkulu waters, the Indian Ocean west Aceh to Bengkulu, southern Bali Strait, waters south of Sumbawa until Bodies Sumba. While the 4-6 m high waves in the waters potentially Enggano, Bodies western Lampung, southern part of the Sunda Strait, waters south of Java to Lombok, the Indian Ocean south of Bengkulu to NTT. "People are encouraged to remain vigilant. Fishermen should not go to sea when high waves," said Sutopo.

"People who conduct activities on the beach should always be vigilant and careful. Travellers on the beach also have to be careful. Follow the restrictions and all the existing rules," he said. Source:

9 June, 2016. Rob Flood and Coastal Tidal Wave Hit the Java-Bali. Google translate

Rob Flood and Coastal Tidal Wave Hit Java-BaliSeorang BPBDs officials warned residents to leave immediately rob the house flooded in the village of Tegal Kamulyan, South Cilacap, Cilacap, Central Java, on Thursday (9/6). Hundreds of homes were flooded rob Cilacap district by the tidal wave as high as 5 meters, to destroy the embankment 500 meters long waves. (FOTO ANTARA / Idhad Zakaria / ama / 16)

Earth, moon and sun are in one straight line (spring tide). Sea level in parts of Indonesia experienced positive anomalies by 15-20 centimeters. Subtropical high pressure center in southwest Australia also raised the main propagation (swell). Three rob it caused flooding and tidal waves occur in some coastal areas of Indonesia.

According to data from the National Agency for Disaster Management Command Post (BNPB) there are 23 counties or cities in Java were attacked by the tidal flood and tidal waves.

The region is Kulon Progo, Gunung Kidul, Bantul, Tasikmalaya, Pangandaran, Cilacap, Pekalongan, Purworejo, Wonogiri, Semarang, Pacitan, Banyuwangi, Jember, Terri, Malang, Tulungagung, Lumajang, Gresik, Tuban, Surabaya, Pemekasan, Probolinggo, and Jakarta.

According to the Head of Data Information and Public Relations Indonesia BNPB Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a tidal wave and tidal flood caused economic losses of billions of rupiah. Fortunately, the incident claimed no casualties.

"In the southern coastal areas of Java, hundreds of buildings, including houses, gazebo, stalls, beach embankments, and building on the coast were damaged," said Sutopo in a written statement on Thursday (9/6).

According to data BNPB, 300 lives of children and women in Lumajang evacuate. A total of 891 community mental refuge at 11 evacuation point in Kabupate Pekalongan. In Sub Tirto, Wiradesa, Wonokerto, and Siwalan approximately 5,937 units of houses were flooded rob.

Not only that, 15 coastal tourist area on the south coast of Yogyakarta also suffered damage from sea waves as high as five to seven meters.

In the coastal tourist area in Gunung Kidul gazebo there were 101, 21 stalls, three SAR building, and several embankments were damaged. Then, in Kulon Progo, damage include 54 stalls, seven boats, 5 shrimp and some tourist buildings. In Bantul damage include 30 stalls, a boat, and post.

To that end, BNPB appealed to the coastal communities of Indonesia to always be vigilant, careful and follow all the rules.

Deputy Meteorology Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Yunus S Swarinoto said high waves and tidal flooding on the south coast of Java Island as a result of the positive anomalies sea level reinforced swell from the southwest Australia. Meanwhile, high waves and tidal flooding on the north coast of Java caused by spring tide and positive anomalies sea level.  Source:

6 June, 2016. Again, Rob Floods Soak Singkil. Google translate

Roads in the area of Ujung Onions, Singkil, Aceh Singkil, on Tuesday (12/15/2015) can not be crossed by vehicles due to flooding

Not to be lost due to trauma tidal flood submergence at the end of last month, a similar disaster back in whack society Singkil District of North and Singkil, Aceh Singkil. The latest report said the flooding due to the sea tides soak hundreds of houses with a height of about 30 cm.
Monitoring the foyer, Sunday (5/6), sea water flooded Gosong community settlements in the West Lake, some Ketapang Indah, District of North Singkil. Also soak area Sarok Island, Market, Kilangan, and the village of Ujung. In addition to homes, the highway at some point in the region is also submerged.
Approaching midday yesterday, puddles on the highway receded. But the house adjacent to the sea is still awash with reaching a height of 30 cm. Source:

9 June, 2016. BMKG: Rob Due to tides Maximum Flood. Google translate

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) asserts, sea water flooding (flood rob) that hit a point on the north coast of Java caused the region were able to anticipate the maximum tide.

The low ground than sea levels caused tidal flood was inevitable. The maximum tide (spring tide) occur due to the phenomenon of the new moon and the full moon. At that time, the position of the earth, moon and sun lie in a straight line.

According to the Head of Sub-Division of Information BMKG, Harry Tirto Djatmiko, based on Hydro-Oceanographic Office data, tides due to the new moon will end on 10th June. Meanwhile, on June 17 to 23 next, the maximum tide occur because that is the course of the full moon phase. Source:

10 June, 2016. High Kian Rob Flood. Google translate

Residents wade in floodwaters rob Somandeng coastal areas, Gunung Kidul, DI Yogyakarta, Thursday (9/6).

Tidal flood still soak some coastal areas of Indonesia until Thursday (9/6). The phenomenon of sea level rise is called longer and higher on the year.

In the southern part of Malang Regency, tidal phenomena occurred since Friday (3/6) and is predicted to recede on Tuesday (7/6). However, until Thursday (9/6), some areas remain flooded rob.

A similar phenomenon occurs not only on the southern coast of Malang. BMKG forecaster Maritime Tanjung Perak Surabaya Eko Prasetyo explained, until Thursday (9/6), Rob is still reported in the north and south coast of Java. "Rob actually happened almost complete, but the most severe in the south," Eko said when contacted by Reuters yesterday. Lumajang, Banyuwangi, and Tulungagung are some areas that are still flooded rob.

Lodging on the south coast, Eko said that the tidal phenomenon more special. Therefore, sea water tides due to the moon's gravity coincided with the phenomenon of high waves. "Scientifically this condition is a result of the maximum tide phenomenon and is driven by the high waves," he explains.

Also soak the tidal flood six villages in the district of Medan Belawan, Medan, from Thursday (2/6). The water level varies from 30 centimeters to one meter and has reached the residence.

Head of Emergency BPBDs Medan Nilwan say as many as 3,200 houses were submerged. According to him, the tidal flood the periodic nature. However, this time, in addition to higher, BPBDs also estimate the tidal flood will be longer than usual.

On the Gulf coast of Lampung, the residents also began hauling household furniture to higher ground due to the tidal flood never subsided. Until Thursday (9/6), still tidal flood inundated hundreds of homes in Talbot Village, Bandar Lampung.

Some residents remain at home despite the tidal flood into the house. According to Sarwan, one resident Talbot, the tidal flood was originally always happens every year. However, this year tidal flood increasingly being felt and old.

Usman, a resident of the other Talbot, also confirmed the incident this year longer and the water that flooded higher. Head of the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Maritim Lampung Sugiono said, factors that would trigger rising sea levels that inundate coastal areas due to the establishment of settlements and the impact of reclamation.

In Jakarta, the tidal flood hit area of ??Muara Baru, North Jakarta. Water and high waves caused the sea dike burst and water flooded the housing residents. Information Head of Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) Surya Putra Jakarta, Bambang said, the tidal flood was indeed included six-monthly cycle. "Indeed, in this six-month cycle has entered the highest," he told Reuters yesterday.

He mentions that the highest water levels on the coast of North Jakarta so far is on the verge of 247 centimeters. If there are waves, he believes water waves will be higher, potentially more catastrophic.

Head of Data Information and Public Relations of National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said, losses due to tidal flooding and high waves later estimated at billions of rupiah.

He continued, due to the flood tide or rob still will occur along the sea coast of the Indian Ocean, especially around the south of Java, southern Papua, Sumatra and west. "Jakarta is facing a very serious rob.

"The threat rob will be increased in the future. This was due to land subsidence in Jakarta uncontrollably," he said. rep: Christiyaningsih, Issha Harruma, Mursalin Yasland, Rizky Suryarandika, Hasanul Rizqa, ed: Fitriyan Zamzami. Source: 

6 June, 2016. Flood Rob lunge Beach in Bali, this causes. Google translate

If you are on vacation to the island of Bali, beware if was visiting the beach. The reason, some of the beaches in Bali experiencing flood conditions tides or tidal flooding.

One of the beaches in Bali, which was flooded tide or rob above average was the Kuta Beach in Badung.

Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Region III Denpasar, I Wayan Suardana said, the island of Bali entered a period of drought.

"Sign the dry winds are relatively firmer. Three days into the future relative increase high wave conditions. Actually, the wind is not too strong, but the waves increases, primarily on the waterfront," said Suardana when contacted, Sunday, June 5, 2016.

Nevertheless, these conditions do not occur evenly on the beach in Bali. "Uneven, conditions that only occur in the region of South Karangasem, Gianyar, Sanur and Kuta," he said.

In addition due to drought conditions, according Suardana, pair of sea water caused a parallel position of the sun, moon and earth in one line maximum. It causes the water in the earth's surface is increasing in some parts. This condition causes the attractive force moon and earth.

"For the astronomical high tide due to frequent periodic basis. For the weather factor due to the influence of wind speed, long the wind blows (including the persistence of the wind direction), fetch, as well as the influence of winds from other regions (swell)," he explained.

Currently, he continues, in general is already dominant wind blowing from the east-southeast, plus the low pressure center (L) in the Indian Ocean which caused a wave of constructive value or rise.

He explained that the main increase in wave height have occurred from the end of May 2016. As for the case of high waves around Kuta Beach is a combination of the effect of high waves in the waters south of Bali with the astronomical high tide due.

"For now entered a period of months off or new moon, in which the position of the moon, earth and sun line that led to a rising tide is very high," says Suardana.

"By listing tidal 2016 high tide with significant values ??may still occur until the date of June 10, 2016, mainly in the morning and afternoon with a height range at 2.3 to 2.7 meters," said Suardana about the cause tidal flooding on a number of beaches in Bali. Source:

10 June, 2016. Pantura Semarang Still Awash Flood Rob. Google translate

Flooding due to sea waves tide was still soaking the northern coastal road Kaligawe Semarang, Central Java. Hundreds of vehicles stuck in traffic due to queue when crossing genamgan flood as high as 70 centimeters.

"The most severe is the next two weeks. Rob always arrive starting at 10:00 pm and later reflux approximately 22:00 pm. The streets were full of puddles," said Suyoto, residents Genuk, Semarang to Okezone, Friday (06/10/2016).

According to him, roads flooded rob long enough until the start Genuk Kaligawe. As flood elevation varies from 30 to 70 centimeters. As a result, a number of wheeled vehicles especially reckless passing directly strike. Source:

Comment by Stanislav on June 21, 2016 at 10:09pm

7 June, 2016. Hundreds House in Padang Awash Flood Rob. Google translate

Hundreds of homes in the city of Padang, West Sumatra, submerged tidal flood or flooding caused by high tides on Tuesday, June 7, 2016. The water level reached 50 meters.

Head of Emergency and Logistics Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) of Padang Nasrul Sugana said tidal flood soak up some areas in the city of Padang, like Gates, Rivers Brames 36 homes, Berok Nipah 15 homes, Sweet Water Beach 20 houses, neighborhood Ulak Karang 41 homes and Pasir area Jambak 10 houses.

"There are four houses were severely damaged in the Gates," said Nasrul when dihubungiTempo, Tuesday, June 7, 2016. According to him, the average flood soak rob the house about one to two hours, depending on the wind and waves. Source:

9 June, 2016. Tidal flood struck the coast Binuangeun Lebak. Google translate

Flood illustration Rob Di Terri Residents see the atmosphere of the tidal flood that hit the tourist area of the coast of Prigi, Trenggalek, East Java, on Wednesday (08/06/2016). (FOTO ANTARA / Destyan Sujarwoko)

Floods hit coastal rob Binuangeun, Wanasalam subdistrict, Lebak, Banten, so that local fishermen not to fish.

"We appeal to the fishermen should not go to sea because of tidal flooding by the tidal wave," said Head of Fish Landing Base (PPI) Binuangeun, Lebak Akhmad Hadi Rangkasbitung when contacted on Thursday. During this time, the tidal flood was not created puddles that befall coastal neighborhoods.

Floodwaters rob estimated to reach 30 meters from the beach. Therefore, it has asked the residents who live near the coast in order to increase alertness. Source:

9 June, 2016. Land subsidence in Jakarta perparah tidal floodGoogle translate

A few days ago, flooded with sea water flood - commonly referred to rob - hit several places in Indonesia. In the record of National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), puddle visited Belawan, Medan; Bali; North Jakarta; Singkil and Meulaboh, Aceh; Probolinggo; Blanaan, Subang; Pekalongan; Gresik; and Cilacap.

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) estimates that similar conditions are still going to happen until today (9/6), particularly in the region south of Java, Papua southern and western Sumatra.

According to the Head of Data Information and Public Relations BNPB, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, special events not just now. "This cycle of tide usual. However, there is wind pressure is making waves became higher than ever before," he said.

Statement Sutopo get support from BMKG Yogyakarta Special Region through its coordinator, Joko Budiono, as read on the page Okezone, Thursday (9/6). According to him, "easterlies wind speed sizable" increase the wave height in the waters of the southern ocean.

Information according to Joko, easterlies wind speeds ranging from 18-36 kilometers per hour "because of the pressure difference" can enlarge the difference.

Such conditions are created for the said wind formed because the air pressure difference is quite significant in west Australia which high pressure and west Sumatra low pressure. Thus, the corresponding wind speed depends on the level of pressure.

What about the coast of Jakarta and Semarang is located north of Java?

Sutopo stated rob in the north coast of Java due to the influence of topography and sea level rise. Tidal flood in North Jakarta due to embankment in Marina Beach, Village Penjaringan, unable to withstand the force of the tide.

In the written statement, said Sutopo rob in the north coast of Java, particularly in North Jakarta and Semarang, occur because of the location which is naturally lower than sea level the highest tide.

In addition, the thrifty, Jakarta will face an increasingly serious threat rob future. Because the land subsidence in Jakarta has been difficult to control. From the measurement results of 1925-2010, sea levels Jakarta always go up every year with an average rise of 0.5 centimeters per year.

Meanwhile, the rate of land subsidence in Jakarta reaches 5 cm to 12 cm per year at some point during the last three decades. The condition that causes the accumulation of sea levels that inundate Jakarta so higher ground.

Research ITB held in the range of 1982 - 2010 showed that the land subsidence spread in many parts of Jakarta. The decline has varied between 1 to 15 cm per year.

In fact, in some locations, there is a decrease 20-28 cm per year. Region Pluit, became one of the areas experiencing land subsidence is large enough. Over the past three decades, some areas of land in Pluit decreased 1.8 meters to 3 meters.

Sutopo further argued that the land subsidence due to groundwater exploitation uncontrolled make North Jakarta more prone to rob.

The decline was not something that was natural, but more due to the utilization of ground water that exceeds the capacity and supportability. Groundwater triggered massive aquifer flat ground. Land was ambles.

In the case of high waves, BMKG predicted that some areas will still experience this condition. With a height of about 2.5 - 4 meters, the area that will be affected include Sabang waters - Banda Aceh, West Water to West Simeulue Islands Mentawai Islands.

In addition, the possibility also occurred in the territorial waters of Bengkulu and Enggano, Bodies of Water West Lampung, southern part of the Sunda Strait, the waters south of Java, Bali southern waters to the south of East Nusa Tenggara. Source:

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