Polar Push & Bounce Back -Trends at the Extremes NEW ZT

**NEW ZETATALK**

This blog is about the Arctic,Antarctica and Extreme Northern/Southern Hemispheres.  Are New Trends happening at the Poles? Weather Patterns, Charts, Images and Unusual Anomalies may be telling us something!

According to the Zetas,  the Wobble Effect has now combined with a new Polar Push!!  

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http://poleshift.ning.com/forum/topics/zetatalk-chat-for-november-2...

Both poles the sea ice loss is off the charts this month!  Seems something has changed?
[and from another] Is it related to the warming of the oceans from the bottom and the wobble? Where will this lead?[and from another]
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...
Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. [and from another]
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/extraordinarily...



SOZT
It is clear from the charts that the Earth wobble has increased. First, despite Siberia being on the same latitude with Eastern Canada and Europe, there are vast temperature differences. The globe around the Arctic seems to be divided in half in this way at the current time. Just months ago, in July,
http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
we stated that the hot and cold regions in the Northern Hemisphere were divided into four parts, due to the Polar Push and Bounce Back, and the lean to the Left and Right. Now the increased wobble has created a duality, not the quadrant arrangement of the Figure 8 that had been present since 2004.  

The Polar Push wherein the N Pole of Earth is shoved away from the approaching N Pole of Nibiru continues to create cold temperatures in Siberia, where the magnetic N Pole of Earth currently resides. This has also warmed Antarctica, which is getting more sunlight.  The Bounce Back is more fierce, so that Europe and eastern N America are also getting more sunlight, and thus the melting Arctic. What is missing is the temperature anomalies due to the tilt to the Left and Right. They have been lost in the more aggressive back and forth motion of the Polar Push and Bounce Back.  
EOZT

Prior ZT: http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
The weather maps continue to document the daily Earth wobble, showing abnormal heat over the N American southwest and up into Alaska, and abnormal heat through Europe. Both these regions come under more equatorial sun due to the wobble, due to the lean to the left and then to the right. This is distinctly balanced by cold spots in between. Canada’s eastern provinces and the region above Hudson Bay receive less sunlight due this tilt to one side and then the other. Russia’s Far East and the Siberian region above China of course are pushed into the cold by the daily Polar Push, when the N Pole of Nibiru shoves the Earth magnetic N Pole away.

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The Polar Push Effect:

http://zetatalk.com/index/zeta103.htm

 

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Ecliptic Rise

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/earthtil.htm

Planet X approaches from the south, and the Pole Shift occurs because the S. Pole is pulled north with the N. Pole of Planet X during the passage. This stress is already evident in that many have noted that the Sun is too far south, rising too far to the south, for the time of year. Possible explanations for this are that the S. Pole has been pulled toward Planet X, creating a different tilt, but the constellations seem to be in their proper place. An alternate explanation is that the Earth's plane of the Ecliptic has changed, rising up, putting the Northern Hemisphere into a different slant, and placing the S. Pole more in line with the N. Pole of Planet X, an alignment Magnets Prefer.    

Natives to the Arctic,  the Inuit years ago already noticed many changes:

Uqalurait: the Snow is Speaking
November 23, 2009
http://www.isuma.tv/hi/en/inuit-knowledge-and-climate-change/uqalur...

An Igloolik elder, describes that uqalurait are changing because the earth itself has "tilted" and has thrown off the consistent wind patterns of the past. The earth tilting on its axis is another re-occuring observation that we are hearing from Inuit, which they know because of how the sun, moon and stars have changed in the sky. Indeed, elders simultaneously know the complexities of the cosmos, land, wind and sky.

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Both Poles are affected!

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...

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The Zetas describe the Final Days of the Wobble:

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/zeta582.htm

During the last weeks, the Earth changes from being in an end-to-end alignment with Planet X to being in a side-by-side alignment. It is during the end-to-end alignment, when Planet X is pointing its N Pole directly at the Earth, that the lean to the left and 3 days of darkness occur. But as Planet X continues in its retrograde orbit, its N Pole is no longer coming from the right, but is located to the left of the Earth, and the Earth adjusts by slinging its N Pole to the right. Thus, during the 6 days of sunrise west, the Earth still has its N Pole tipped away from the Sun and the approaching Planet X, but rather than a lean to the left, it has a lean to the right.
 
It is at this point that the Earth switches from being in an end-to-end alignment to being in a side-by-side alignment with Planet X. When Planet X is just at the Ecliptic, it stands upright in alignment with the Sun. As it switches from pointing its N Pole at Earth the Earth follows suit.
ZetaTalk: September 12, 2009

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Some charts to follow and/or post in this blog are HERE:

Climate ReAnalyzer

http://cci-reanalyzer.org

Google has the biggest collection of charts to view/post here!

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

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NEW ZETATALK SEPT 30, 2017 **

http://zetatalk.com/ning/30sp2017.htm

With a stronger Polar Push the bounce back would likewise be more extreme, and the bounce back occurs when the Sun is over the Atlantic.  As the wobble continued to get worse, the Figure 8 corrective lean to the right and left also got more extreme. This sets the stage for the current 2017 hurricane season.

(Modified Earth images are from Google Earth)

Sunlight on Earth reflection based on image in the Planet X Related Captures Blog

The Figure 8 of the wobble creates a churning in the Atlantic:

1.) First land on either side of the Atlantic is pushed under water during the Polar Push,

2.) Then the N American Continent is slung to the East

3.) Then to the West as the day dawns and

4.) Then the bounce back pulls this land back up to the North. 

The wobble, in short, is churning the North Atlantic in a circular motion. Where this fits with the Coriolis effect, where the winds and water curl up from the Equator in a circular motion, moving clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, the lean to the left does a direct clash, pushing the storm back in a path toward the US coastline.

This is the current Wobble pattern, but the Wobble is subject to change:

5.) A lean into Opposition has occurred, the N Pole leaning toward the Sun. **NEW LEAN**

6.) And a temporary Lean to the Left could occur,

7.) as well as a temporary Day of Darkness for the Northern Hemisphere.

This is not a static situation. (this will occur more than once, in other words).

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Comment by SongStar101 on July 13, 2018 at 6:27pm

Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week (Updated 7/9/2018 to discuss Canada/Scandinavia)

" It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. "

https://wxclimonews.com/2018/07/02/extreme-heat-event-in-northern-s...

Because of the attention of this post, I’m updating it to discuss the ongoing intense warming of the parts of the Arctic this week into next week and the implications on the mid-latitudes further. The heatwave in northern Siberia is receding, but heat is building in Northern Canada and Scandinavia this week. All the result of very strong, persistent high pressure systems, leading to surface temperatures 15-30 degrees F (8-17 C) above normal.

Global Forecast System computer model forecast 7-day mean temperature anomalies for the Arctic. Very anomalous warmth expected over the Canadian Arctic (Nunavut) and Scandinavia and northwestern Siberia during the next week. Also note anomalous heat over much of the Greenland and Barents Seas to the edge of the sea ice extent (waters east of Greenland and to north-northeast of Scandinavian countries).

These anomalies, much like what occurred to a spectacular level in north-central and northeast Siberia translate to very warm temperatures for so far north of 60 N.

Arctic and Sub-Arctic Canada appears to go through the most significant impacts Monday-Thursday with temperatures into the above 79 F (26 C) and even approaching 90 F (32 F).

GFS Model high temperature forecast for Canada Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures into the 80s F and approaching 90 degrees F (27-32 C) well into the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

High temperatures Thursday.

At the same time, Scandinavia and northwest Russia will also see significantly above normal temperatures of similar magnitude.

GFS Forecast high temperatures Tuesday over Scandinavia. Temperatures above 81 F (27 C) extending north of the Arctic Circle. The pattern remains persistent through the weekend and possibly longer.

GFS Model forecast high temperatures for Saturday afternoon. Note temperatures near 90 F (32 C) in far northwest Russia.

All of this very abnormal heat over the high latitude landmasses, overspreading the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean continues to cause substantial and persistent decrease in daily sea ice volume in the ... Significant reductions are being caused by decreases in concentration of ice within the Arctic Ocean; ice which is also quite thin from months of abnormal warmth, including in the polar night. In addition, a major ocean cyclone struck the Beaufort Sea and part of the Central Arctic Basin over the weekend,bring in heat from the warm Pacific and eastern Siberia and churning up wave action under the influence of strong wind gusts over the open, ice-crusted sea.

Visible image of Arctic cyclone over the Beaufort Sea (“C” shaped cloud structure on the left near Alaska). Note the ice cover over the Arctic Ocean and ongoing areas of break up along offshore Eurasia (on the right side of the image). Image from July 7th, Terra satellite.

Satellite data showing sea ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent areas for July 8th.

Research by scientists such as Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (recent recorded lecture discussing her research can be found here) have shown that decreasing sea ice can lead to a) progressively weaker jet stream with higher amplitude, slower-moving waves (atmospheric ridges and troughs) capable of producing more frequent extreme weather events (extreme heat, heavy rainfall patterns, etc) for weeks at a time. Also areas of very low extent and open compared to the past are hypothesized to enhance the very ridges of high pressure which produce extended hot, dry weather (research into this still ongoing). These ongoing effects are all a product of very abrupt changes in the Arctic climate over the past 20 yrs, which have to evolved to the point of effecting both Arctic and mid-latitude weather on meteorological timescales (several days or weeks).

These pronounced effects on the mid-latitudes leading to more extreme weather events would be expected to continue as the planet continues to warm, with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the planet north of 60 N (and up to 4 times faster north of 80 N) with such extremes having implications on crop yields, water resources and human health in the coming years.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey


(Original post from 7/2/2018 below):

This isn’t typically what I would write about in this blog, as I typically cover threatening ocean storms. However, this has implications for the Arctic Ocean and possibly mid-latitude weather. An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F (greater than 20 C) above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees (32-35 C) near the open ocean coast!

Yes,  you read that correctly.

Wednesday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along the Laptev Sea in Northern Siberia. Widespread 80s to mid-90s, over 40 degrees above normal as forecast by the Global Forecast System Model.

Thursday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along Eastern Laptev Sea and far western portion of the Eastern Siberian sea in Northern Siberia. Similar temperatures and departures to Wednesday.

Friday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along the far western portion of the Eastern Siberian Sea in Northern Siberia. Widespread 80s to mid-90s, over 40 degrees above normal.

Needless to say, a true roasting for this area.

I’ve looked over the European model and there appears to be general agreement over the intensity and timing of this extreme event. It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. Climate change has sent temps skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over just the past 20 years. While that’s been quite reflected in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures, it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving more dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight. This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (very low reflectivity…little sunlight being reflected back off into space) causes some heat to be released back to heat the atmosphere above, speeding up warming of the Arctic region. This is known as Arctic Amplification. And one larger-scale hemispheric consequence being actively researched by Dr. Jennifer Francis (YouTube Video Presentation) and on others is that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (on timescales of just the past decade or two), the main feature which steers and intensifies weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave “breaks” and blocking patterns where waves sit in the same place for weeks promote extreme weather patterns (extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions).

2018 has unfortunately been a prime example of global warming’s effect on the jet stream. And northern Siberia has been getting blowtorched by heat that refuses to quit because of an ongoing blocked pattern favorable for intense heat.

Mean temperature anomalies the past 30 days. Normal relative to 1981-2010 baseline.

This, in turn, has result in significant erosion of the sea ice in the Laptev Sea and warming of the waters into the mid-40s (5-6 C) in the sea (around 43 F/6 C).

Warming in of +6 C (11 F) above normal sea surface temperatures in the ice free area of the Laptev Sea on the left. Also circled is the ice free +6 C area in the Chukchi Sea on the left between Siberia and Alaska, which also had record low sea ice extent this past winter and spring.

I would expect sea ice concentration to decline further this week, perhaps significantly as these incredible temperatures strike the region. The numerical models not only indicate the intense daytime heat, but also nighttime lows in the 60s (15-20 C), with 70s (21-26 C) not far inland.

Thursday Morning (local time) temperatures along the Laptev Sea. Upper-60s to mid-70s.

Incredible! Also, during the daytime hours there will be strong offshore wind blowing hot air offshore out to sea capable of heating waters and destroying more and more sea ice.

In addition to the immediate impact on sea ice, there is also the impact on permafrost. Or perhaps, what was “permafrost”. More of these kind of intense heat events now hitting the Arctic at the height of summer will result in more rapid destruction of land permafrost as well as heating of the shallow waters just offshore where sub-sea permafrost is located, allowed for increasingly more carbon dioxide and methane to be released into the atmosphere, speeding up global warming and resulting climate change, including effects on storm patterns in the mid-latitudes.

Comment by SongStar101 on July 13, 2018 at 5:49pm

Ongoing Global Heatwave Is Setting All-time Hottest Temperature Records All Over

https://thelogicalindian.com/news/global-heatwave/

According to reports, countries across the globe are experiencing one of the most intense heat events ever seen in human history. As many locations in the northern hemisphere recorded high temperatures in the past week, the Climate scientists are worried. In his latest blog post, Meteorologist Nick Humphrey said that the extreme spell of hot weather amounted to “a true roasting”, melting ice covering the Arctic Ocean, adding, “It is incredible and one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north.” According to Humphrey,  even northern Siberia, known for its cold weather,  “has been getting blowtorched” with maximum temperatures of above 32 degrees C.

Humphrey made these comments after he interpreted a heat map from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. Climate Reanalyzer is a platform to visualise the global climate and provide 10-day forecasts across the world. It was developed by the University of Maine and the National Science Foundation, USA.


What is happening around the globe?

Castlederg in Northern Ireland on June 29, hit a record high of 30.1 degrees C. Temperatures in Tbilisi, Georgia, and Yerevan, Armenia, rose this week to 40.5 degrees C and 42 degrees C respectively. In the USA, heat levels in Denver, Colorado soared to an all-time high of 40.6 degrees C on June 28. In Quriyet, Oman, on June 26, the lowest temperature over the 24-hour period was a sweltering 42.6 degrees C – making a new record for highest “low”, according to Guinness World Records. Canada’s Quebec province’s largest city Montreal recorded its record high of 36.6 degrees C on July 2.

British citizens have been warned to expect ongoing high temperatures as it was announced the country would be seeing the longest unbroken spell of hot weather since 1976. They are expected to match the record set 42 years ago, where at least one weather station recorded over 28 degrees C for 18 consecutive days.  While in the UK the heatwave had pushed the mean temperatures for last month up to 14.8 degrees C, making it the third warmest June since 1910.

Burlington, in Vermont, recorded its all-time high ‘low’ temperature of 80°F (27°C) within the 24 hour period on July 2. Yerevan, in the previously Soviet state of Armenia, saw temperatures soar to 107.6°F (42°C). Ottawa posted its most extreme combination of heat and humidity on July 1. The islands in Western Europe and Eurasia smouldered in the heatwave. The host country of the FIFA World Cup this year, Russia is also in the midst of a heatwave and several spots across the south of the world’s largest country either matched or exceeded their warmest June temperatures.


What does this mean?

Mr Humphrys explains how climate change has sent temperatures skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over the past 20 years. This can be seen in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures. However, now it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as well. As a result of such high temperatures, more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving the dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight.

This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (more solar energy absorbed by earth) causes faster warming of the Arctic region as compared to mid-latitudes. This phenomenon is known as Arctic Amplification.


Why should we be worried?

According to reports, the experts in climate change and global warming are getting increasingly concerned. Reportedly, Dr Jennifer Francis, a research professor, found that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (jet streams are high altitude, fast flowing, narrow currents of air that carry warm and cold air across the planet). The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave ‘ breaks’.  These blocking patterns lead the waves to sit in the same place for weeks and promote extreme weather patterns. This results in extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions.

Mr Humphrey warns that due to the increase in this kind of intense heat events hitting the Arctic at the height of summer, more rapid destruction of land permafrost will happen.  This ultimately will lead to more carbon dioxide and methane to be released into the atmosphere, speeding up global warming and resulting in even faster climate change.

A heat wave in a region or a country can be considered as an anomaly, however, the scale of this global heatwave is a flashing-red danger signal.

Comment by SongStar101 on June 28, 2018 at 12:52pm

‘Atlantification’ of Arctic sea tipping it towards new climate regime

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towa...

Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says.

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

‘Atlantification’

The Barents Sea is “at the doorstep to the Arctic Ocean”, the new paper says, roughly hemmed in by Russia and Scandinavia to the south, the island of Svalbard to the northwest and Russia’s Novaya Zemlya archipelago to the east/It is broadly divided into two regions. The waters of the northern Barents are cold, fresh and often covered in sea ice, while the south is supplied with warm and salty water from the Atlantic Ocean, which prevents ice from forming on the surface.

The graphic below illustrates this in more detail. On the left-hand side, the Atlantic domain – the southern Barents Sea and beyond – is relatively warm and well-mixed. On the right-hand side is the interior Arctic, where a large body of cold, ice-covered Arctic water sits on a deeper Atlantic layer. The Arctic domain is highly “stratified”, which means the different layers of water stay largely separate.

The central section shows the “frontier” region of the northern Barents Sea. This has a shallower Arctic water layer that is usually only covered in sea ice through the winter.

Illustration of the frontier region between Atlantic (left) and Arctic (right) ocean climate domains. The Atlantic domain has warm and saline Atlantic Water (red) occupying the entire water column, and has large heat losses to the atmosphere (in winter). The Arctic domain is cold, stratified and sea-ice covered, having an intermediate Arctic layer of cold and fresh Arctic Water (blue) over a deep Atlantic layer. In the Arctic domain, upward fluxes of heat and salt from the deep Atlantic layer are largest in the frontier region, where the stratification is weaker. Source: Lind et al. (2018)

But, in recent years, scientists have documented the “Atlantification” of the Barents sea as an increased inflow of Atlantic water has enlarged the area where sea ice cannot form. This has resulted in decline in ice extent on the Barents Sea, particularly in eastern areas.

Sea change

Sea ice plays a key role in keeping the northern Barents Sea in its Arctic climate regime. In addition to the sea ice that forms on its surface, the region receives an “import” of sea ice each year, blown in from the central Arctic by the wind.

When the imported sea ice melts in spring and summer, it provides an influx of freshwater to the Barents Sea. This cold, fresh water top-ups the Arctic layer of the northern region, helping to maintain the stratification that works as a barrier to the warm Atlantic waters below.

But the amount of ice the Barents Sea receives each year is declining. The average annual area of ice import during 2000-15 was around 40% smaller, on average, than during 1979-2009, the study finds. The decrease in volume of sea ice imported “was even larger”, the study says, at approximately 60%.

This is in line with the observed decline in Arctic sea ice cover more widely in response to rising temperatures, the paper says, which reduces “the probability of large sea ice inflows to the Barents Sea, in both volume and area”.

Less sea ice means less freshwater being imported into the northern Barents Sea. The chart below shows how sea ice import (blue line) has changed since 1970, as well as the freshwater content (black) of the northern Barents Sea and the salinity of its surface waters (red). All three metrics have shown a steep decline in recent years.

Chart showing estimated sea ice volume import to the Barents Sea during October–May (blue line), surface layer salinity (red) and freshwater content (black). Actual values are shown on the left axis, standardized anomalies relative to the 1979–2015 average on the right axis. Source: Lind et al. (2018)

This decline in freshwater content weakens the stratification that separates the overlying cold, fresh Arctic water from the underlying warm and more dense Atlantic water. As the two layers mix, it brings the warm, salty water up from the deep, making it more difficult for sea ice to form the following winter.

This process also helps explain the warming “hotspot” in the northern Barents Sea, says lead author Dr Sigrid Lind, a researcher in physical oceanography and climate science at the Institute of Marine Science and the University of Bergen in Norway. She tells Carbon Brief:

“A likely cause for the Arctic warming hotspot is, therefore, that less sea ice inflows have caused major freshwater loss and weakened stratification, bringing heat and salt up from the deep Atlantic layer, making the Arctic layer warmer, reducing the winter sea ice cover and increasing winter surface air temperature.”

All three layers of the Barents Sea are now significantly warmer than they were in the 1970-99 baseline period, the study finds.

The top 60 metres of the Barents Sea is 1.5C warmer in the 21st century than during 1970-99, the paper says, while below 60 metres has warmed by 0.5-0.8C. The salinity in all three layers has also increased during the 2000s.

‘First to lose the battle’

The results suggest that supplies of sea ice from the Arctic are necessary to keep the northern Barents Sea “cold, stratified and sea-ice covered”, the paper says.

The findings also point towards a “fundamental shift in the physical environment”, the paper says, where the northern Barents Sea could be “the first [frontier region] to lose the battle against Atlantic water”.

Model simulations suggest that the transition from Arctic-type to Atlantic-type waters in the northern Barents Sea could happen by the end of the century. But it is “likely to happen much faster”, Lind says:

“If the decline in freshwater content in the upper 100 metres during 2000-16 continues, the freshwater content will be zero – meaning no stratification – around 2040.”

The exact timing will depend strongly on the speed of Arctic sea ice decline and the highly-variable inflow of sea ice to the Barents Sea, says Lind. This could either speed up or slow down the transition.

Such a rapid change would be a “historically rare” moment, the paper says, which has previously only been documented in palaeoclimate studies of the Earth’s long history.

Into the unknown

A transition to an Atlantic regime in the northern Barents Sea would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem, the paper warns.

On the one hand, commercial fish stocks may expand north into new areas – and research shows that Atlantic fish species are already entering the northern Barents Sea during summer.

However, it is not known how the loss of an Arctic ecosystem will affect Atlantic species. For example, “the capelin – a key prey for several commercial fish species – feed on species that are linked to the sea ice edge,” notes Lind.

Close-up of the capelin catch in Forteau, Labrador, Canada. Credit: All Canada Photos/Alamy Stock Photo.

In addition, the situation for the creatures that currently enjoy the Arctic conditions of the Barents Sea could “become critical”, says Lind:

“The Arctic ecosystem in the northern Barents Sea have species that are adapted to the cold, stratified and sea-ice covered Arctic climate, including ice-associated marine mammals.”

Prof Igor Polyakov of the International Arctic Research Center, who was not involved in the research, agrees that the impacts could be considerable. He tells Carbon Brief:

“The discussion presented in the manuscript rightly states that this region may soon be transferred from an Arctic to an Atlantic type of climate. Consequences of these changes may be widespread and dramatic.”

And, despite the uncertainties around the timing of the outcome, the study has a “solid base”, thanks to the set of “excellent” temperature and salinity observations and satellite data for the Barents Sea, adds Polyakov.

Comment by SongStar101 on May 15, 2018 at 8:57pm

Arctic winter warms up to a low summer ice season

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/05/


Sea ice extent in the Bering Sea remains at record low levels for this time of year. Total ice extent over the Arctic Ocean also remains low.

Arctic sea ice extent for April 2018 averaged 13.71 million square kilometers (5.29 million square miles). This was 980,000 square kilometers (378,400 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average and only 20,000 square kilometers (7,700 square miles) above the record low April extent set in 2016. Given the uncertainty in measurements, NSIDC considers 2016 and 2018 as tying for lowest April sea ice extent on record. As seen throughout the 2017 to 2018 winter, extent remained below average in the Bering Sea and Barents Sea. While retreat was especially pronounced in the Sea of Okhotsk during the month of April, the ice edge was only slightly further north than is typical at this time of year. Sea ice extent in the Bering Sea remains the lowest recorded since at least 1979.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/05/

Gaps in the Sea Ice: Polynya's

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya

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Oldest Ice Vanishing

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/05/

Comment by M. Difato on April 3, 2018 at 3:36pm

 

Arctic sea ice maximum at second lowest in the satellite record   http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-se... Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 17. This is the second lowest Arctic maximum in the 39-year satellite record. The four lowest maximum extents in the satellite record have all occurred in the past four years. NSIDC will post a detailed analysis of the 2017 to 2018 winter sea ice conditions in our regular monthly post in early April.  Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for March 17, 2018 was 14.48 million square kilometers (5.59 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day.  Sea Ice Index data. About the dataCredit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image
 On March 17, 2018, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.48 million square kilometers (5.59 million square miles), the second lowest in the 39-year satellite record, falling just behind 2017. This year’s maximum extent is 1.16 million square kilometers (448,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles).

The four lowest seasonal maxima have all occurred during the last four years. The 2018 maximum is 60,000 square kilometers (23,200 square miles) above the record low maximum that occurred on March 7, 2017; 40,000 square kilometers (15,400 square miles) below the 2015 and 2016 maxima (now tied for third lowest); and is 190,000 square kilometers (73,400 square miles) below the 2011 maximum, which is now fifth lowest.

 In March 2017, we reported a new record maximum being set, with 2016 sliding to the second lowest, and 2015 the third lowest. In November 2017, we updated our calculation of the monthly average sea ice extent in..., resulting in 2016 tying with 2015.

The date of the maximum this year, March 17, was five days later than normal compared to the 1981 to 2010 median date of March 12.

Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of March 22, 2018, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2017 to 2018 is shown in blue, 2016 to 2017 in green, 2015 to 2016 in orange, 2014 to 2015 in brown, 2013 to 2012 in magenta, and 2011 to 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Indexdata.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

The ice growth season ended with very low sea ice extents in the Bering Sea in the Pacific side of the Arctic, and in the Barents Sea in the Atlantic side of the Arctic. The regions of reduced ice cover reflect the combined influences of late autumn freeze-up as well as persistent high air temperatures throughout the winter. Freeze-up was especially late in the Chukchi Sea, due in part to the effects of strong ocean heat transport into the area through the Bering Strait. February then saw an early retreat of sea ice in the Bering Sea. Sea ice extent on the Atlantic side remained below average throughout the winter, which also appears linked to warm ocean waters. While air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) remained well above average through most of winter, February saw an extreme heat wave over the Arctic Ocean.This is the fourth winter in a row that such heat waves have been recorded over the Arctic Ocean.

A late spurt in sea ice growth just prior to the maximum occurred in the Barents Sea near Novaya Zemlya; sea ice retreat just after the maximum was led by ice loss in the Bering Sea.

The Antarctic minimum

As noted in our previous post, in the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year on February 20 and 21, at 2.18 million square kilometers (842,000 square miles). This year’s minimum extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, 70,000 square kilometers (27,00 square miles) above the record low set on March 3, 2017. The Antarctic minimum extent is 670,000 square kilometers (259,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average minimum of 2.85 million square kilometers (1.10 million square miles)..."

Please note this is a preliminary announcement. At the beginning of April, NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of winter conditions in the Arctic, along with monthly data for March. For more information about the maximum extent and what it means, see the NSIDC Icelights post, the Arctic sea ice maximum.

Comment by SongStar101 on March 7, 2018 at 11:24am

The Arctic Heats Up in the Dead of Winter

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/03/06/the-arctic-heats-up-in-the-...

Every once in a while a climatic event hits that forces people to sit down to catch their breath. Along those lines, abnormal Arctic heat waves in the dead of winter may force scientists to revaluate downwards (or maybe upwards, depending) their most pessimistic of forecasts.

By the end of February 2018, large portions of the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland were open blue water, meaning no ice. But, it’s wintertime, no daylight 24/7, yet no ice in areas where it’s usually some meters thick! In a remarkable, mindboggling turn of events, thick ice in early February by month’s end turned into wide open blue water, metaphorically equivalent to an airline passenger at 35,000 feet watching rivets pop off the fuselage.

The sea ice north of Greenland is historically the thickest, most solid ice of the North Pole. But, it’s gone all of a sudden! Egads, what’s happening and is it a danger signal? Answer: Probably, depending upon which scientist is consulted. Assuredly, nobody predicted loss of ice north of Greenland in the midst of winter.

According to Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen, February was the warmest (hottest) on record in the Arctic, which includes 10 days of temps above freezing. As for Arctic temps in February, that’s hot! “We’ve actually got open water at the top of Greenland right now, which is incredibly unusual,” (Mottram – Source: Europe’s Cold Blast, Arctic’s Heat Wave are ‘Two Sides of the Same Coin,” Public Radio International, March 2, 2018).
“This is an anomaly among anomalies. It is far enough outside the historical range that it is worrying – it is a suggestion that there are further surprises in store as we continue to poke the angry beast that is our climate,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. (Source: Jonathan Watts, Global Environmental Editor, Arctic Warming: Scientists Alarmed by ‘Crazy Temperature Rise’, The Guardian, Feb. 27, 2018).

During February the world’s most northerly weather station at Cape Morris Jesup on the tip of Greenland registered temps warmer than London and Zurich for days on end. The Cape Morris Jesup weather station is only 440 miles away from the North Pole.

When analyzing or writing about the complexities of ecosystem events, like loss of Arctic sea ice, it is easy to overstate negatives, if only because there is no evidence of a similar event in recent climate history. Furthermore, the scientific community is widely split on likely consequences, running the gamut from “no worries for at least 100 years” to “the world will incinerate within 10 years,” meaning Runaway Global Warming (RGW”), as a result of massive release of methane (“CH4”) trapped in frozen waters for millennia, causing temps to crank up by 10 °F-to-15 °F, which will pretty much wipe out a lot of agricultural crops. In turn, the world turns into a dystopian hellhole and reverts to caveman/cavewoman lifestyle.

Indeed, the dangers that arise with loss of Arctic ice are multifold, including loss of the Arctic as the planet’s biggest reflector/air conditioner. When covered with white reflective ice, it reflects up to 90% of solar radiation back into outer space. Without ice, that same 90% is absorbed within a dark blue background, potentially heating up tons upon tons, and more tons yet, of frozen methane, metaphorically similar to throwing kindling onto a hot fire, as global warming heats up big time and sizzles agricultural crops down to blackened stubs throughout the mid latitudes, driving humanity into the farthest northern latitudes for survival, a crowded scenario indeed.

And that’s the rub because, across the board, scientists agree ecosystem changes today are exponential, which could be problematic. As explained by one scientist, linear versus exponential means that a person can take 30 linear steps to the water cooler across the room but if exponential, the 30 steps takes him/her around the world, more than once. That’s exponential, and that’s the rate of change in ecosystems, like the Arctic. Therein lies the unknown risk factor of how soon temps mushroom upwards? Nobody knows for sure, but they do know that ecosystems are changing exponentially, especially in the ocean.

Here’s the ultimate risk: 55 million years ago global temps spiked during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (“PETM”). The temp surge by 6 °C (11 °F) happened in just 13 years, which if repeated today, would be unbelievably devastating, but the science is controversial as to the timing of the surge 55 millions ago. Some scientists say 13 years; some scientists that look at the same data say 1500 years. Hopefully, it’s the latter. But unfortunately, with exponential change already underway, that wish does not look very promising.

Comment by jorge namour on March 1, 2018 at 5:41pm

'Ice sheet melt caused by heat from Earth core not just global warming': NEW REPORT CLAIMS Aug 4, 2016

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/696717/CLIMATE-CHANGE-SHOCK-...

Heat from the earth's core is melting the base of the Greenland ice sheet

'The MASSIVE Greenland ice sheet is being melted as a result of heat emitted from the Earth, rather than rising atmospheric temperatures, a new NASA study has claimed'.
The US space agency, which uses satellites orbiting the earth to monitor the environment and study climate change, looked at how much the the huge ice sheet was still attached to bed rock underneath.

For the first time, the agency obtained a series of temperatures from the base of the sheet - the second biggest in the world after that in the Antarctic - and found it was up to tens of degrees warmer at the base than the surface.

The Greenland ice sheet is around 1,500 miles north to south and up to 680 miles across.

But they also said it was heat coming out of the bedrock itself which was causing the melting.

This means the ice sheet would melt from below anyway even if global warming was not taking place.

A NASA spokesman said: "Greenland’s thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth’s depths. CONTINUE....
-------------------------------------------------------------
The hot core of the Earth is responsible for the melting of the Greenland icecap

February 18, 2018,

http://www.2012un-nouveau-paradigme.com/2018/02/le-noyau-chaud-de-l...

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19244-x

Recently it was suggested that there may be a hidden heat source beneath GIS caused by a higher than expected geothermal heat flux (GHF) from the Earth’s interior.

The icecap of Greenland melts, but it turns out that the responsible is not global warming, as some would have you believe. Instead, the researchers have now found evidence that a heat source hidden at the bottom of the planet is behind this melting ice that carries glaciers into the ocean.

Researchers from the University of Aarhus in Denmark used a ten-year study of Young Sound Fjord in Greenland to draw their conclusions. Throughout the survey, measurements were made of salinity levels and temperatures in the fjord, where water at depths between 200 and 330 m gradually warmed.

They discovered that much of this heat came from inside the Earth. According to their estimates, 100 megawatts of energy per square meter have been transferred from the interior of the Earth to the fjord, and it is believed that similar amounts of heat have been transferred to the bottom of the surrounding glaciers. That's roughly equivalent to a 2-megawatt wind turbine that sends electricity to a huge radiator at the bottom of the fjord all year long. Their conclusions were published in the journal Scientific Reports .
The heat loss of the interior of our planet warms essentially the deep water temperatures where the fjords are, melting the glaciers. The heat, which is called geothermal heat flux, is found everywhere on our planet and goes back to its birth.

In addition, scientists say that warming and melting under the icecaps that these heat flows induce "essentially lubricates the interface between ice and soil, which greatly accelerates the movement of ice."

Comment by SongStar101 on March 1, 2018 at 8:22am

Arctic warming causes concern among scientists

While Europe freezes, the polar region continues to see unprecedented warm weather.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/arctic-warming-concern-scien...

28 Feb 2018 10:06 GMT

Most of the coverage of Europe's weather over the last week or so has been, rightly, focused on the so-called, 'Beast from the East' and the Sudden Stratospheric Warming' (SSW).

Both SSW and the intense anticyclone that caused frigid Siberian air to sweep across Europe are entirely natural events, albeit quite infrequent. The same cannot be said for some of the weather anomalies being reported in the Arctic region.

Scientists understanding of the polar regions, in general, is limited. An accurate database of instrument readings extends back just a few decades, and reliable satellite data from the region only became available in the 1970s.

Nevertheless, many climate scientists are concerned about the extent of the recent warming in the region, which appears to be accelerating at a dramatic rate.

In the last week, temperatures have reached above freezing (0 degrees Celsius) at the North Pole.

It is important to remember, that the region is in the depths of winter, with almost total darkness.

Even more remarkably, the weather station on the northern tip of Greenland, Cape Morris Jesup, recorded a temperature of 6.1C on Sunday, and temperatures remained above freezing there for 61 hours, a new record.

This month there have been 10 days above freezing for at least part of the day at this weather station, which lies just 700km from the North Pole.

According to Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute, "spikes in temperature are part of the normal weather patterns - what has been unusual about this event is that it has persisted for so long and that it has been so warm."

She added: "Going back to the late 1950s at least, we have never seen such high temperatures in the high Arctic."

Speaking to Live Science, James Overland, an oceanographer with Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory said: "We've seen something like this once every 10 years in the past, but this is the second major example of this happening in the last couple of years. What's different this time is that we have less ice and thinner ice in the Arctic. When you bring warmer air north, it doesn't cool off as fast as it used to.

All this is hardly surprising as 2015, 2016 and 2017 are the three warmest years globally since records began in 1880. The Arctic region is warming at a much greater rate than anywhere else. Globally, temperatures have risen by about 1C in the last 100 years, but in the Arctic region, the warming is closer to 3C.

This has resulted in a sustained year-on-year decrease in the extent of sea ice, and what coverage there is, is of much thinner, younger ice than in the past.

Climate scientists disagree as to the extent to which the current warming is directly attributable to human-induced climate change.

Zeke Hausfather of Berkley Earth, an independent, non-profit climate science organisation remains doubtful.

"The current excursions of 20C or more above average experienced in the Arctic are almost certainly mostly due to natural variability. While they have been boosted by the underlying warming trend, we don't have any strong evidence that the factors driving short-term Arctic variability will increase in a warming world," he said

But Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, takes a different view.

"This is an anomaly among anomalies," Mann said.

"It is far enough outside the historical range that it is worrying - it is a suggestion that there are further surprises in store as we continue to poke the angry beast that is our climate," he added. 

"The Arctic has always been regarded as a bellwether because of the vicious circle that amplifies human-caused warming in that particular region. And it is sending out a clear warning."

What is clear is that the weakening of the polar vortex, because of the warming in the region, makes the climate more unstable. This encourages longwave ridges and troughs to develop in the flow around the Arctic Circle.

Plunges of cold air across Europe and domes of warm air across the Arctic could become more frequent events in the years ahead.


-----------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------

Blue ice piling up near Michigan's Mackinac Bridge

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/02/blue_ice_piling_up_near...

MACKINAW CITY, MI - Blue ice doesn’t always stack up along the Great Lakes shoreline. But when it does form – and its irregular rectangles begin to tower with Michigan’s iconic Mackinac Bridge in the background – it sends photographers running for the perfect shot.

Comment by SongStar101 on February 28, 2018 at 11:23am

The polar vortex just split in two. Get ready for some wild weather from Europe to the U.S.

https://mashable.com/2018/02/15/polar-vortex-split-stratospheric-wa...

The polar vortex, the notorious swirl of winds around a low pressure area in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic, has split in two. Since the polar vortex tends to be associated with some of the coldest air during the winter, the split — which is more like a temporary separation than a lasting divorce — means that ultra cold air is on the move. 

A split in the polar vortex may sound like a complicated weather concept, but it has huge consequences for weather patterns from Canada to Eurasia. The latest split is likely to put Western Europe and much of Eurasia into the deep freeze for the rest of February, and will offer glimpses of hope for snow lovers along the U.S. East Coast. 

Figuring out where the coldest air will go and how it will affect worldwide weather patterns for the next several weeks is a key task facing weather forecasters now. 

Helping matters is that most computer models appear to agree on the broad scenario that's likely to play out. Indications are that in the near-term, colder and stormier conditions than average are likely for Western Europe and much of Eurasia during the rest of February into early March.

 

During that same period, the Eastern U.S. will experience something of a spring thaw, with temperatures as much as 20 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. 

Highs in the 70s Fahrenheit are possible during the closing days of February in Washington, D.C. and New York City, areas that saw record cold at the start of the winter. 

Ski areas in the western part of the country, particularly in the Northern Rockies, could see heavy snowfall and ideal snowmaking conditions during the next two weeks.

Back to the polar vortex, though. One piece of the vortex is sliding southwest, out of the Arctic and into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, where frigid conditions and above average snowfall is favored for the next few weeks. Another is spinning out of the Arctic and over Eurasia. 

Caught in between is the Arctic Ocean, which should have some of the coldest air of any region in the Northern Hemisphere right now, but instead has seen yet another unusually mild winter. The polar vortex's split means that the ultra-cold air is being siphoned away from the Arctic, leaving unusually mild conditions in its wake. 

Don't be surprised if Arctic sea ice sets yet another record low for the winter season. 

This split occurred in the stratosphere

The main polar vortex exists in the stratosphere, which is the layer of air above where most of our weather occurs. A sudden warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic, appropriately known as a "sudden stratospheric warming event," took place in early-to-mid February, and this has caused the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex. 

Sudden stratospheric warming events occur when large atmospheric waves send energy upward, into the stratosphere, setting in motion a complex process that results in the temporary breakdown of the polar vortex. This February's stratospheric warming event was particularly extreme, possibly setting records for how sharply temperatures spiked in the upper atmosphere.

The polar vortex split isn't the only factor favoring a cold snap in Europe, warmup in the Eastern U.S., and cool down in the West. There's also a cycle of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that can increase the odds of colder and snowier weather in some of these areas. 

Computer models are projecting the NAO will become strongly negative during the next few weeks in response to the polar vortex split and stratospheric warming event, and this also favors cold and snow in Western Europe. (It also ups the odds of similar weather in the eastern U.S., but that may not happen right away.)

"A significant PV [polar vortex] disruption is often followed by widespread cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and the Eastern US. However the cold is more certain across northern Eurasia following these type of PV disruptions," meteorologist Judah Cohen, who specializes in seasonal weather forecasting and tracking the polar vortex for AER, a Verisk Analytics company, wrote on his blog.  

The negative mode of the NAO typically features an area of strong high pressure over Greenland, which blocks the progression of weather systems moving in from the southwest, and causes the jet stream to plunge southward over Europe, allowing cold air to flow in from the Arctic and Scandinavia. Sudden stratospheric warming events tend to cause the NAO to switch into negative mode shortly after they occur. 

The rest of February should feature a colder than average Western U.S., coupled with a milder than average East Coast. However, the negative NAO phase could bring a return of winter weather to the East in early March, depending where exactly that Greenland block sets up. There's often a delay between when the polar vortex is disrupted, and when the cold air arrives in parts of the U.S., if at all. 

Snow lovers will be watching upcoming forecasts anxiously, because the deeper into March we go, the less likely widespread snows along the East Coast become. 

Comment by M. Difato on February 22, 2018 at 7:30pm

 Arctic temperatures soar 45 degrees above normal, flooded by extremely mild air on all sides

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02...

 (The temperature difference from normal over the Arctic averaged over the next five days in the GFS model forecast. (University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer)

 While the Eastern United States simmers in some of its warmest February weather ever recorded, the Arctic is also stewing in temperatures more than 45 degrees above normal. This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.
 
On Monday and Tuesday, the northernmost weather station in the world, Cape Morris Jesup at the northern tip of Greenland, experienced more than 24 hours of temperatures above freezing according to the Danish Meteorological Institute. “How weird is that?” tweeted Robert Rohde, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley. “Well it’s Arctic winter. The sun set in October and won’t be seen again until March. Perpetual night, but still above freezing.”
This thaw occurred as a pulse of extremely mild air shot through the Greenland Sea.
Warm air is spilling into the Arctic from all sides. On the opposite end of North America, abnormally mild air also poured over northern Alaska on Tuesday, where the temperature in Utqiaġvik, previously known as Barrow, soared to a record high of 31 degrees (minus-1 Celsius), 40 degrees (22 Celsius) above normal.
The warmth over Alaska occurred as almost one-third of the ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s West Coast vanished in just over a week during the middle of February, InsideClimateNews reported. Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist based in Alaska, posted that the overall sea ice extent on Feb. 20 was the lowest on a record by a long shot.
 The lack of ice has real consequences for villages along the Bering Sea whose shores are normally protected from big storms and their giant waves. Without the ice as a buffer, waves can hammer the coastline and damage homes and buildings, as this video from the village of Diomede, Alaska, shot on Feb. 20 illustrates:
“Scary stuff, on many levels,” tweeted Rick Thoman, an Alaskan meteorologist.
Temperatures over the entire Arctic north of 80 degrees latitude have averaged about 10 degrees (6 Celsius) above normal since the beginning of the calendar year, sometimes spiking over 25 degrees (14 Celsius) above normal (the normal temperature is around minus-22, or minus-30 Celsius)..."

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