Polar Push & Bounce Back -Trends at the Extremes NEW ZT

**NEW ZETATALK**

This blog is about the Arctic,Antarctica and Extreme Northern/Southern Hemispheres.  Are New Trends happening at the Poles? Weather Patterns, Charts, Images and Unusual Anomalies may be telling us something!

According to the Zetas,  the Wobble Effect has now combined with a new Polar Push!!  

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http://poleshift.ning.com/forum/topics/zetatalk-chat-for-november-2...

Both poles the sea ice loss is off the charts this month!  Seems something has changed?
[and from another] Is it related to the warming of the oceans from the bottom and the wobble? Where will this lead?[and from another]
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...
Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. [and from another]
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/extraordinarily...



SOZT
It is clear from the charts that the Earth wobble has increased. First, despite Siberia being on the same latitude with Eastern Canada and Europe, there are vast temperature differences. The globe around the Arctic seems to be divided in half in this way at the current time. Just months ago, in July,
http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
we stated that the hot and cold regions in the Northern Hemisphere were divided into four parts, due to the Polar Push and Bounce Back, and the lean to the Left and Right. Now the increased wobble has created a duality, not the quadrant arrangement of the Figure 8 that had been present since 2004.  

The Polar Push wherein the N Pole of Earth is shoved away from the approaching N Pole of Nibiru continues to create cold temperatures in Siberia, where the magnetic N Pole of Earth currently resides. This has also warmed Antarctica, which is getting more sunlight.  The Bounce Back is more fierce, so that Europe and eastern N America are also getting more sunlight, and thus the melting Arctic. What is missing is the temperature anomalies due to the tilt to the Left and Right. They have been lost in the more aggressive back and forth motion of the Polar Push and Bounce Back.  
EOZT

Prior ZT: http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
The weather maps continue to document the daily Earth wobble, showing abnormal heat over the N American southwest and up into Alaska, and abnormal heat through Europe. Both these regions come under more equatorial sun due to the wobble, due to the lean to the left and then to the right. This is distinctly balanced by cold spots in between. Canada’s eastern provinces and the region above Hudson Bay receive less sunlight due this tilt to one side and then the other. Russia’s Far East and the Siberian region above China of course are pushed into the cold by the daily Polar Push, when the N Pole of Nibiru shoves the Earth magnetic N Pole away.

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The Polar Push Effect:

http://zetatalk.com/index/zeta103.htm

 

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Ecliptic Rise

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/earthtil.htm

Planet X approaches from the south, and the Pole Shift occurs because the S. Pole is pulled north with the N. Pole of Planet X during the passage. This stress is already evident in that many have noted that the Sun is too far south, rising too far to the south, for the time of year. Possible explanations for this are that the S. Pole has been pulled toward Planet X, creating a different tilt, but the constellations seem to be in their proper place. An alternate explanation is that the Earth's plane of the Ecliptic has changed, rising up, putting the Northern Hemisphere into a different slant, and placing the S. Pole more in line with the N. Pole of Planet X, an alignment Magnets Prefer.    

Natives to the Arctic,  the Inuit years ago already noticed many changes:

Uqalurait: the Snow is Speaking
November 23, 2009
http://www.isuma.tv/hi/en/inuit-knowledge-and-climate-change/uqalur...

An Igloolik elder, describes that uqalurait are changing because the earth itself has "tilted" and has thrown off the consistent wind patterns of the past. The earth tilting on its axis is another re-occuring observation that we are hearing from Inuit, which they know because of how the sun, moon and stars have changed in the sky. Indeed, elders simultaneously know the complexities of the cosmos, land, wind and sky.

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Both Poles are affected!

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...

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The Zetas describe the Final Days of the Wobble:

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/zeta582.htm

During the last weeks, the Earth changes from being in an end-to-end alignment with Planet X to being in a side-by-side alignment. It is during the end-to-end alignment, when Planet X is pointing its N Pole directly at the Earth, that the lean to the left and 3 days of darkness occur. But as Planet X continues in its retrograde orbit, its N Pole is no longer coming from the right, but is located to the left of the Earth, and the Earth adjusts by slinging its N Pole to the right. Thus, during the 6 days of sunrise west, the Earth still has its N Pole tipped away from the Sun and the approaching Planet X, but rather than a lean to the left, it has a lean to the right.
 
It is at this point that the Earth switches from being in an end-to-end alignment to being in a side-by-side alignment with Planet X. When Planet X is just at the Ecliptic, it stands upright in alignment with the Sun. As it switches from pointing its N Pole at Earth the Earth follows suit.
ZetaTalk: September 12, 2009

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Some charts to follow and/or post in this blog are HERE:

Climate ReAnalyzer

http://cci-reanalyzer.org

Google has the biggest collection of charts to view/post here!

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

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NEW ZETATALK SEPT 30, 2017 **

http://zetatalk.com/ning/30sp2017.htm

With a stronger Polar Push the bounce back would likewise be more extreme, and the bounce back occurs when the Sun is over the Atlantic.  As the wobble continued to get worse, the Figure 8 corrective lean to the right and left also got more extreme. This sets the stage for the current 2017 hurricane season.

(Modified Earth images are from Google Earth)

Sunlight on Earth reflection based on image in the Planet X Related Captures Blog

The Figure 8 of the wobble creates a churning in the Atlantic:

1.) First land on either side of the Atlantic is pushed under water during the Polar Push,

2.) Then the N American Continent is slung to the East

3.) Then to the West as the day dawns and

4.) Then the bounce back pulls this land back up to the North. 

The wobble, in short, is churning the North Atlantic in a circular motion. Where this fits with the Coriolis effect, where the winds and water curl up from the Equator in a circular motion, moving clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, the lean to the left does a direct clash, pushing the storm back in a path toward the US coastline.

This is the current Wobble pattern, but the Wobble is subject to change:

5.) A lean into Opposition has occurred, the N Pole leaning toward the Sun. **NEW LEAN**

6.) And a temporary Lean to the Left could occur,

7.) as well as a temporary Day of Darkness for the Northern Hemisphere.

This is not a static situation. (this will occur more than once, in other words).

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Comment by SongStar101 on May 23, 2019 at 2:56pm

Nearly 25% of West Antarctic Ice in Danger of Collapse

https://www.livescience.com/65524-antarctica-ice-unstable.html

Glaciers and ice sheets in Antarctica have thinned and weakened dramatically over the past quarter-century, leaving 24% of the ice in the western part of the continent seriously weakened and in danger of collapse.

In some places on Antarctica, glaciers have thinned by approximately 400 feet (122 meters). This staggering loss has little to do with weather fluctuations; rather, it unfolded over decades as Earth's climate warmed, scientists reported in a new study.

And that ice loss is accelerating. The researchers found that West Antarctica's two biggest glaciers — Thwaites and Pine Island — are melting away five times faster now than they were at the beginning of the survey, in 1992. [Antarctica: The Ice-Covered Bottom of the World (Photos)]

To determine these ice changes, the scientists examined regional climate models and satellite data spanning 25 years, they reported May 16 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

They consulted 800 million measurements of ice sheet height in Antarctica, recorded between 1992 and 2017 by the European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites ERS-1 and ERS–2, the Earth-observing satellite Envisat and the environmental research satellite CryoSat-2. All of the satellites were deployed by the European Space Agency.


This map shows changes to the Antarctic ice sheet’s thickness from 1992 to 2017. 

This map shows changes to the Antarctic ice sheet’s thickness from 1992 to 2017. 
Credit: Shepherd et al 2019/Geophysical Research Letters/AGU

Using these measurements, the researchers calculated the volume of Antarctica's ice mass separately from the fluctuating blankets of snowfall that accumulates and recedes in seasonal cycles, determining snowfall volume through computer simulations.

The scientists found that significant areas of the ice sheets across Antarctica showed signs of severe weakness, or "dynamical imbalance." This dynamical imbalance was most widespread in West Antarctica, destabilizing more than 160,000 square miles (415,000 square kilometers) of ice; and the lost mass wasn't being replenished by snowfall.

In the Antarctic Peninsula — the spike of land that extends northward from West Antarctica — an estimated 6,900 square miles (17,900 square km) of ice is also dangerously unstable, as is about 22,000 square miles (57,000 square km) of ice in East Antarctica, according to the study.

"Knowing how much snow has fallen has really helped us to detect the underlying change in glacier ice within the satellite record," said lead study author Andy Shepherd, director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling in the United Kingdom.

"We can see clearly now that a wave of thinning has spread rapidly across some of Antarctica's most vulnerable glaciers, and their losses are driving up sea levels around the planet," Shepherd said in a statement.

Since 1992, melting ice in Antarctica alone has led to sea-level rise of about 0.2 inches (5 millimeters). That may not sound like much, but with the pace of ice melt accelerating — and with Antarctica holding Earth's biggest reserve of frozen, landlocked water — the prospect of much greater sea-level rise is looming, the scientists wrote.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 25, 2019 at 11:14pm

Greenland Is Falling Apart

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the world’s second-largest reservoir of fresh water sitting on the world’s largest island. It is almost mind-bogglingly huge.

If Greenland were suddenly transported to the central United States, it would be a very bad day for about 65 million people, who would be crushed instantly. But for the sake of science journalism, imagine that Greenland’s southernmost tip displaced Brownsville, Texas—the state’s southernmost city—so that its icy glaciers kissed mainland Mexico and the Gulf thereof. Even then, Greenland would stretch all the way north, clear across the United States, its northern tenth crossing the Canadian border into Ontario and Manitoba. Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and Iowa City would all be goners. So too would San Antonio, Memphis, and Minneapolis. Its easternmost peaks would slam St. Louis and play in Peoria; its northwestern glaciers would rout Rapid City, South Dakota, and meander into Montana. At its center point, near Des Moines, roughly two miles of ice would rise from the surface.

Suffice it to say: The Greenland Ice Sheet, which contains enough water to refill the Great Lakes 115 times over, is very large. And it is also falling apart.

A new study finds that the Greenland Ice Sheet added a quarter inch of water to global sea levels in just the past eight years. The research, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, covers nearly 20 years previously not included in our detailed understanding of the troubled Greenland Ice Sheet. It finds that climate change has already bled trillions of tons of ice from the island reservoir, with more loss than expected coming from its unstable northern half.




“The glaciers are still being pushed out of balance,” Eric Rignot, a senior scientist at NASA and an author of the paper, told me. “Even though the ice sheet has [sometimes] been extremely cold and had low surface melt in the last year, the glaciers are still speeding up, and the ice sheet is still losing mass.”

The paper casts the transformation of the Greenland Ice Sheet as one of the profound geological shifts of our time. Scientists measure the mass of ice sheets in “gigatonseach unit equal to 1 billion metric tons, or roughly the same amount of water that New York or Los Angeles uses in a year. Greenland, according to the study, has lost 4,976 gigatons of water since 1972. That’s enough water to fill 16 trillion bathtubs or 1.3 quadrillion gallon jugs. That much water weighs about 11 quadrillion pounds. (A quadrillion is 1 with 15 zeros after it.)

More worryingly, the paper finds that Greenland lost about half of that ice—roughly 2,200 gigatons—in the years between 2010 and 2018. The ice sheet has also failed to gain mass in any year since 1998.

This melting isn’t happening at a steady pace, in other words. Greenland’s demise seems to be accelerating. Think of Greenland as a huge inland ice sea, surrounded by faster-moving ice rivers (which are glaciers) that empty the sea and carry ice to the ocean. The paper finds that those rivers are speeding up, carrying ice out of the island’s core nearly twice as fast now as they did in the 1990s or 2000s.

That’s an alarming result, because it means glaciers might now be shrinking Greenland from the bottom faster than hot weather can melt it from the top. And researchers believe that bottom-melting glaciers are less stable and more prone to rapid collapse. “If there’s a risk of rapid sea-level rise in the future, it will be associated with glaciers speeding up, and not anything happening at the surface,” Rignot said.

The paper’s findings are stirring in part because they go much further back in time. “A lot of the publications [about Greenland’s mass] start in 2000 or 2002, some go back to 1992, but this is the first time we go back another 20 years,” Rignot said. Historically, most studies of Greenland combine data from radar flybys, GPS beacons, and laser or gravity-sensing satellites. But there’s not enough data from before 1992 to be useful, so that’s when estimates usually stop.

Rignot and his colleagues helped hit upon a new resource. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Landsat satellites have circled the planet nonstop since 1972, imaging every speck of land on Earth every 16 days. This archive—which is a kind of Earth-science version of taking a photo of yourself every day for years—includes hundreds of images of Greenland. Rignot and his team taught a computer how to read those pictures of its icy surface, zooming in especially on the dozens of glaciers that connect the interior ice sheet to the sea.


“It’s looking at two different pictures of a glacier, before and after. [In each frame,] the rocks don’t move but the glacier moves, so it can compare and cross-correlate image points,” Rignot said. “Then the algorithm searches around the window for where the pixel might have gone.”

The team ultimately used this technique to calculate the speed of Greenland’s glaciers from 1972 to 1992. Then they combined that data with modern observations of the ice sheet to estimate its historical mass. (They used a similar method to estimate Antarctica’s ice loss in a paper published earlier this year.)

Rignot and his colleagues relied on another new resource too: OMG!

As in, literally, the project is named OMG, short for Oceans Melting Greenland. OMG is a five-year NASA mission, started in 2016, to study how warmer oceans are eroding Greenland’s waterfront glaciers. Rignot helps lead it. “Thanks to OMG, we’ve been able to construct a [bedrock] model of Greenland that is pretty good under the ice, and is very, very good underneath the ocean,” he said.

Brad Lipovsky, a glaciologist at Harvard who was not connected to the research, said in an email that the results “seem plausible at first glance,” but that scientists would need to carefully check some of the team’s methodology. The overall story of Greenland, he said, is that the ice sheet’s flow is slowly accelerating. This “makes sense,” he said, “because it takes the slowly flowing ice sheet a lot longer to respond than the rapidly evolving atmosphere.”

Rignot believes that the new study should make glaciologists look anew at the speed with which Greenland could collapse. The ice sheet’s bleeding-out could eventually raise global sea levels by as much as 25 feet. So the key question, Rignot said, is “How fast can you make these entities fall apart?” The answer will matter to all of us. The surface of Greenland doesn’t have to move through magic to other parts of the world—already, today, its deluge is on its way.


Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2019 at 2:02pm

Arctic is warmest it's been in 10,000 years, study suggests

Permafrost samples suggest Arctic is 2 C warmer than previous record highs thousands of years ago

A polar bear wanders along Hudson Bay. New research suggests the Arctic is warmer than at any time in the past 10,000 years. (iStock)

New research suggests Canada's Arctic is the warmest it has been in 10,000 years — and the temperatures are still climbing.

The study was recently published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

Researchers studied permafrost samples in the Yukon near the Dempster Highway and determined that temperatures in the Arctic today are almost 2 C warmer than at any time in the past 10,000 years.

The temperatures recorded today are even higher than the previous highs believed to have occurred during the early Holocene period, about 9,900 and 6,400 years ago, when Earth's axis was tilted more strongly toward the sun, the report states.

Duane Froese, a professor at the University of Alberta and a co-author of the study, suggests that time period may actually be much longer.

"I would guess we're getting back over 100,000 years since we've seen temperatures at least this warm," he said.

Research shows warming Arctic 

This study adds to the growing research showing dramatic warming in the Arctic.

Last month, the UN released its environment report on the Arctic, which describes scenarios where Arctic winter temperatures increase by three to five degrees by 2050 compared to 1986-2005.

Permafrost thaw is altering the western Arctic landscape on Banks Island. Researcher Duane Froese predicts there will be more instances of permafrost melt as the temperatures warm. (Submitted by Antoni Lewkowicz.) 

Another study, published earlier this week, suggests the Arctic will no longer look the same, with greening tundra and warmer winters.

But people living in the Arctic are already taking action.

The Vuntut Gwich'in First Nation in Old Crow, Yukon, is set to declare a state of emergency due to climate change as they watch the effects unfold firsthand in their community. That includes rising temperatures, less snow cover, warmer winters and thawing permafrost.

Froese says these effects will only continue, especially as the permafrost melts, which may happen more slowly or less dramatically than melting glaciers.

"Permafrost behaves a bit different," Froese said. "It has all the insulation of the vegetation and soil on the surface of it that slows the penetration of heat into the ground.

"Particularly in the western Arctic, we're starting to see big, big changes from those warmer temperatures and melting permafrost."

Comment by SongStar101 on March 28, 2019 at 10:12pm

"Complete Collapse": Iceberg Twice The Size Of NYC Set To Break Off Antarctica

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-28/complete-collapse-iceberg...

Dangerous cracks developing across Antarctica’s Brunt Ice Shelf are due to unleash a massive iceberg twice the size of New York City, according to NASA researchers who warn when it breaks, it could destabilize the entire shelf.

NASA recently released images acquired by Landsat satellites of Antarctica’s Brunt Ice Shelf, where a rift is visibly slicing through the shelf. Researchers said the crack had been stable for more than three decades, but since, has been moving north at about 2.5 miles per year.

  • “The near-term future of Brunt Ice Shelf likely depends on where the existing rifts merge relative to the McDonald Ice Rumples,” said Joe MacGregor, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “If they merge upstream (south) of the McDonald Ice Rumples, then it’s possible that the ice shelf will be destabilized.

The rift is moving toward another fissure, as known as Halloween crack, that is located 3 miles away. Halloween crack was first discovered in 2016, continues to move east, and when the two rifts intersect in the very near term, an iceberg is formed measuring 660 square miles.

“We don’t have a clear picture of what drives the shelf’s periods of advance and retreat through calving,” said NASA/UMBC glaciologist Chris Shuman.

“The likely future loss of the ice on the other side of the Halloween Crack suggests that more instability is possible."

Researchers are puzzled on what drives this process, known as calving, could mean the health of the shelf is in immediate danger.

“At worst, this calving could destabilize the remainder of the Brunt Ice Shelf leading to its complete collapse,” Dominic Hodgson, a senior scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, told NBC News Tuesday in an email.

“This would then likely be followed by an acceleration of ice in the upstream glaciers, increasing their contribution to sea level.”

Calving is a natural part of the life cycle of ice shelves, but recent rifts forming in the region are unusual. The edge of the Brunt Ice Shelf has evolved since Ernest Shackleton surveyed the coast in 1915, but in the last several years, the speed of its transformation has been accelerated.

The risk of the 660 square mile shelf breaking off has prompted safety concerns for researchers working in the area, particularly researchers at the British Antarctic Survey’s Halley Station, a major base for Earth, atmospheric, and space science research typically operates year-round, but has recently closed operations due to unpredictable changes in the ice.

If the converging cracks destabilize the ice shelf even further, a massive iceberg twice the size of New York City could soon be soon floating in the South Atlantic Ocean.

Comment by SongStar101 on March 21, 2019 at 12:28pm

Various ocean areas in Arctic show signs of dramatic decrease in sea ice.  Lowest ever?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.400.html?PHPS...

Comment by SongStar101 on January 31, 2019 at 11:21pm

Big Mid-West Arctic "Polar-Push" and "Bounce -Back" vortex this week,  wow! -60'sF (-50'sC)!! Lowest temps in US in recorded history for mid USA.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2min

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Weather History: The January 30-31, 2019 Arctic Outbreak

TOP 5 LOWEST WIND CHILLS RECORDED SINCE 1950:

1. -51 January 20, 1985

2. -45 December 24, 1983...January 23, 1963...January 24, 1963

3. -44 January 18, 1994

4. -41 January 15, 1977 (New #4 Now -42 January 30, 2019)

5. -40 January 15, 1972...January 15, 1994...December 22, 1989...January 6, 2014*

*Note - several hours of data were missing prior to -40 reading in 2014, so it may have gotten lower.

TOP 5 LONGEST DURATIONS WITH WIND CHILLS OF LESS THAN -40:

1. 16 Hours: January 20, 1985

2. 15 Hours: December 24, 1983

3. 7 Hours: January 18, 1994

4. 5 Hours: January 16, 1977

5. 3 Hours January 23, 1963...January 24, 1963

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Bitter "Bounce-Back" cold in Russia!  -60's F (-50's C)

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Ogimet - Cold Extremes!!

Comment by SongStar101 on August 23, 2018 at 8:47am
Comment by SongStar101 on August 23, 2018 at 8:42am

Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea...

Usually frozen waters open up twice this year in phenomenon scientists described as scary

The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.

This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year.

One meteorologist described the loss of ice as “scary”. Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic will withstand warming the longest.

The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as “the last ice area” because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet.

But abnormal temperature spikes in February and earlier this month have left it vulnerable to winds, which have pushed the ice further away from the coast than at any time since satellite records began in the 1970s.

“Almost all of the ice to the north of Greenland is quite shattered and broken up and therefore more mobile,” said Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute. “Open water off the north coast of Greenland is unusual. This area has often been called ‘the last ice area’ as it has been suggested that the last perennial sea ice in the Arctic will occur here. The events of the last week suggest that, actually, the last ice area may be further west.”

Ice to the north of Greenland is usually particularly compacted due to the Transpolar Drift Stream, one of two major weather patterns that push ice from Siberia across the Arctic to the coastline, where it packs.

Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “The ice there has nowhere else to go so it piles up. On average, it’s over four metres thick and can be piled up into ridges 20 metres thick or more. This thick, compacted ice is generally not easily moved around.

“However, that was not the case this past winter (in February and March) and now. The ice is being pushed away from the coast by the winds.”

Ice is easier to blow around as a result of a warming trend, which has accelerated over the past 15 years. “The thinning is reaching even the coldest part of the Arctic with the thickest ice. So it’s a pretty dramatic indication of the transformation of the Arctic sea ice and Arctic climate.”

“Scary,” wrote Thomas Lavergne, a scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, in a retweet of a satellite-gif of the blue water penetrating white ice and exposing hundreds of miles of the Greenland coastline.

.


Thomas Lavergne (@lavergnetho)

So the open water / low concentration patch North for Greenland is still there (and slowly moving westward). Nice and scary. From https://t.co/jPx1JmNayA https://t.co/hGstLYafcW

August 13, 2018

He said this would flush chunks of thicker ice out through the Fram or Nares Straits into warmer southern waters.

“I cannot tell how long this open water patch will remain open, but even if it closes in few days from now, the harm will be done: the thick old sea ice will have been pushed away from the coast, to an area where it will melt more easily,” he added.

This year’s openings are driven more by wind than melting but they have occurred during two temperature spikes. In February, the Kap Morris Jesup weather station in the region is usually below -20C, but earlier this year there were 10 days above freezing and warm winds, which unlocked the ice from the coast.


Arctic sea ice extent for 15 August 2018 was 5.7m sq km (2.2m sq miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Photograph: NSIDC

Last week, the crack opened again after Kap Morris Jesup briefly registered a record high of 17C and strong southerly winds picked up to 11 knots. Experts predict that coastal seas will freeze again but probably later than normal.

“I think that solar heating of the water column will increase during this opening and this will delay freeze-up and ice formation,” said Rasmus Tage Tonboe, a sea ice expert at the the Danish Meteorological Institute.

The latest readings by the Norwegian Ice Service show that Arctic ice cover in the Svalbard area this week is 40% below the average for this time of year since 1981. In the past month, at least 14 days in the past month have hit record lows in this region.

Keld Qvistgaard, the ice service coordinator in Denmark, said this was not the first time a gap had appeared between the shore and the main ice pack but the one formed from 1 to 5 August was different in its extent. “This event is a pretty big one going all the way to west of Kap Morris Jesup. This is unusual,” he said.

As well as reducing ice cover, the ocean intrusion raises concerns of feedbacks, which could tip the Earth towards a hothouse state.

Freakish Arctic temperatures have alarmed climate scientists since the beginning of the year. During the sunless winter, a heatwave raised concerns that the polar vortex may be eroding.

This includes the Gulf Stream, which is at its weakest level in 1,600 years due to melting Greenland ice and ocean warming. With lower circulation of water and air, weather systems tend to linger longer.

A dormant hot front has been blamed for record temperatures in Lapland and forest fires in Siberia, much of Scandinavia and elsewhere in the Arctic circle.

Comment by SongStar101 on July 13, 2018 at 6:27pm

Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week (Updated 7/9/2018 to discuss Canada/Scandinavia)

" It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. "

https://wxclimonews.com/2018/07/02/extreme-heat-event-in-northern-s...

Because of the attention of this post, I’m updating it to discuss the ongoing intense warming of the parts of the Arctic this week into next week and the implications on the mid-latitudes further. The heatwave in northern Siberia is receding, but heat is building in Northern Canada and Scandinavia this week. All the result of very strong, persistent high pressure systems, leading to surface temperatures 15-30 degrees F (8-17 C) above normal.

Global Forecast System computer model forecast 7-day mean temperature anomalies for the Arctic. Very anomalous warmth expected over the Canadian Arctic (Nunavut) and Scandinavia and northwestern Siberia during the next week. Also note anomalous heat over much of the Greenland and Barents Seas to the edge of the sea ice extent (waters east of Greenland and to north-northeast of Scandinavian countries).

These anomalies, much like what occurred to a spectacular level in north-central and northeast Siberia translate to very warm temperatures for so far north of 60 N.

Arctic and Sub-Arctic Canada appears to go through the most significant impacts Monday-Thursday with temperatures into the above 79 F (26 C) and even approaching 90 F (32 F).

GFS Model high temperature forecast for Canada Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures into the 80s F and approaching 90 degrees F (27-32 C) well into the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

High temperatures Thursday.

At the same time, Scandinavia and northwest Russia will also see significantly above normal temperatures of similar magnitude.

GFS Forecast high temperatures Tuesday over Scandinavia. Temperatures above 81 F (27 C) extending north of the Arctic Circle. The pattern remains persistent through the weekend and possibly longer.

GFS Model forecast high temperatures for Saturday afternoon. Note temperatures near 90 F (32 C) in far northwest Russia.

All of this very abnormal heat over the high latitude landmasses, overspreading the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean continues to cause substantial and persistent decrease in daily sea ice volume in the ... Significant reductions are being caused by decreases in concentration of ice within the Arctic Ocean; ice which is also quite thin from months of abnormal warmth, including in the polar night. In addition, a major ocean cyclone struck the Beaufort Sea and part of the Central Arctic Basin over the weekend,bring in heat from the warm Pacific and eastern Siberia and churning up wave action under the influence of strong wind gusts over the open, ice-crusted sea.

Visible image of Arctic cyclone over the Beaufort Sea (“C” shaped cloud structure on the left near Alaska). Note the ice cover over the Arctic Ocean and ongoing areas of break up along offshore Eurasia (on the right side of the image). Image from July 7th, Terra satellite.

Satellite data showing sea ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent areas for July 8th.

Research by scientists such as Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (recent recorded lecture discussing her research can be found here) have shown that decreasing sea ice can lead to a) progressively weaker jet stream with higher amplitude, slower-moving waves (atmospheric ridges and troughs) capable of producing more frequent extreme weather events (extreme heat, heavy rainfall patterns, etc) for weeks at a time. Also areas of very low extent and open compared to the past are hypothesized to enhance the very ridges of high pressure which produce extended hot, dry weather (research into this still ongoing). These ongoing effects are all a product of very abrupt changes in the Arctic climate over the past 20 yrs, which have to evolved to the point of effecting both Arctic and mid-latitude weather on meteorological timescales (several days or weeks).

These pronounced effects on the mid-latitudes leading to more extreme weather events would be expected to continue as the planet continues to warm, with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the planet north of 60 N (and up to 4 times faster north of 80 N) with such extremes having implications on crop yields, water resources and human health in the coming years.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey


(Original post from 7/2/2018 below):

This isn’t typically what I would write about in this blog, as I typically cover threatening ocean storms. However, this has implications for the Arctic Ocean and possibly mid-latitude weather. An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F (greater than 20 C) above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees (32-35 C) near the open ocean coast!

Yes,  you read that correctly.

Wednesday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along the Laptev Sea in Northern Siberia. Widespread 80s to mid-90s, over 40 degrees above normal as forecast by the Global Forecast System Model.

Thursday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along Eastern Laptev Sea and far western portion of the Eastern Siberian sea in Northern Siberia. Similar temperatures and departures to Wednesday.

Friday Afternoon (local time) high temperatures along the far western portion of the Eastern Siberian Sea in Northern Siberia. Widespread 80s to mid-90s, over 40 degrees above normal.

Needless to say, a true roasting for this area.

I’ve looked over the European model and there appears to be general agreement over the intensity and timing of this extreme event. It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. Climate change has sent temps skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over just the past 20 years. While that’s been quite reflected in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures, it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving more dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight. This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (very low reflectivity…little sunlight being reflected back off into space) causes some heat to be released back to heat the atmosphere above, speeding up warming of the Arctic region. This is known as Arctic Amplification. And one larger-scale hemispheric consequence being actively researched by Dr. Jennifer Francis (YouTube Video Presentation) and on others is that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (on timescales of just the past decade or two), the main feature which steers and intensifies weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave “breaks” and blocking patterns where waves sit in the same place for weeks promote extreme weather patterns (extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions).

2018 has unfortunately been a prime example of global warming’s effect on the jet stream. And northern Siberia has been getting blowtorched by heat that refuses to quit because of an ongoing blocked pattern favorable for intense heat.

Mean temperature anomalies the past 30 days. Normal relative to 1981-2010 baseline.

This, in turn, has result in significant erosion of the sea ice in the Laptev Sea and warming of the waters into the mid-40s (5-6 C) in the sea (around 43 F/6 C).

Warming in of +6 C (11 F) above normal sea surface temperatures in the ice free area of the Laptev Sea on the left. Also circled is the ice free +6 C area in the Chukchi Sea on the left between Siberia and Alaska, which also had record low sea ice extent this past winter and spring.

I would expect sea ice concentration to decline further this week, perhaps significantly as these incredible temperatures strike the region. The numerical models not only indicate the intense daytime heat, but also nighttime lows in the 60s (15-20 C), with 70s (21-26 C) not far inland.

Thursday Morning (local time) temperatures along the Laptev Sea. Upper-60s to mid-70s.

Incredible! Also, during the daytime hours there will be strong offshore wind blowing hot air offshore out to sea capable of heating waters and destroying more and more sea ice.

In addition to the immediate impact on sea ice, there is also the impact on permafrost. Or perhaps, what was “permafrost”. More of these kind of intense heat events now hitting the Arctic at the height of summer will result in more rapid destruction of land permafrost as well as heating of the shallow waters just offshore where sub-sea permafrost is located, allowed for increasingly more carbon dioxide and methane to be released into the atmosphere, speeding up global warming and resulting climate change, including effects on storm patterns in the mid-latitudes.

Comment by SongStar101 on July 13, 2018 at 5:49pm

Ongoing Global Heatwave Is Setting All-time Hottest Temperature Records All Over

https://thelogicalindian.com/news/global-heatwave/

According to reports, countries across the globe are experiencing one of the most intense heat events ever seen in human history. As many locations in the northern hemisphere recorded high temperatures in the past week, the Climate scientists are worried. In his latest blog post, Meteorologist Nick Humphrey said that the extreme spell of hot weather amounted to “a true roasting”, melting ice covering the Arctic Ocean, adding, “It is incredible and one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north.” According to Humphrey,  even northern Siberia, known for its cold weather,  “has been getting blowtorched” with maximum temperatures of above 32 degrees C.

Humphrey made these comments after he interpreted a heat map from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. Climate Reanalyzer is a platform to visualise the global climate and provide 10-day forecasts across the world. It was developed by the University of Maine and the National Science Foundation, USA.


What is happening around the globe?

Castlederg in Northern Ireland on June 29, hit a record high of 30.1 degrees C. Temperatures in Tbilisi, Georgia, and Yerevan, Armenia, rose this week to 40.5 degrees C and 42 degrees C respectively. In the USA, heat levels in Denver, Colorado soared to an all-time high of 40.6 degrees C on June 28. In Quriyet, Oman, on June 26, the lowest temperature over the 24-hour period was a sweltering 42.6 degrees C – making a new record for highest “low”, according to Guinness World Records. Canada’s Quebec province’s largest city Montreal recorded its record high of 36.6 degrees C on July 2.

British citizens have been warned to expect ongoing high temperatures as it was announced the country would be seeing the longest unbroken spell of hot weather since 1976. They are expected to match the record set 42 years ago, where at least one weather station recorded over 28 degrees C for 18 consecutive days.  While in the UK the heatwave had pushed the mean temperatures for last month up to 14.8 degrees C, making it the third warmest June since 1910.

Burlington, in Vermont, recorded its all-time high ‘low’ temperature of 80°F (27°C) within the 24 hour period on July 2. Yerevan, in the previously Soviet state of Armenia, saw temperatures soar to 107.6°F (42°C). Ottawa posted its most extreme combination of heat and humidity on July 1. The islands in Western Europe and Eurasia smouldered in the heatwave. The host country of the FIFA World Cup this year, Russia is also in the midst of a heatwave and several spots across the south of the world’s largest country either matched or exceeded their warmest June temperatures.


What does this mean?

Mr Humphrys explains how climate change has sent temperatures skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over the past 20 years. This can be seen in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures. However, now it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as well. As a result of such high temperatures, more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving the dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight.

This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (more solar energy absorbed by earth) causes faster warming of the Arctic region as compared to mid-latitudes. This phenomenon is known as Arctic Amplification.


Why should we be worried?

According to reports, the experts in climate change and global warming are getting increasingly concerned. Reportedly, Dr Jennifer Francis, a research professor, found that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (jet streams are high altitude, fast flowing, narrow currents of air that carry warm and cold air across the planet). The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave ‘ breaks’.  These blocking patterns lead the waves to sit in the same place for weeks and promote extreme weather patterns. This results in extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions.

Mr Humphrey warns that due to the increase in this kind of intense heat events hitting the Arctic at the height of summer, more rapid destruction of land permafrost will happen.  This ultimately will lead to more carbon dioxide and methane to be released into the atmosphere, speeding up global warming and resulting in even faster climate change.

A heat wave in a region or a country can be considered as an anomaly, however, the scale of this global heatwave is a flashing-red danger signal.

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