Polar Push & Bounce Back -Trends at the Extremes NEW ZT


This blog is about the Arctic,Antarctica and Extreme Northern/Southern Hemispheres.  Are New Trends happening at the Poles? Weather Patterns, Charts, Images and Unusual Anomalies may be telling us something!

According to the Zetas,  the Wobble Effect has now combined with a new Polar Push!!  



Both poles the sea ice loss is off the charts this month!  Seems something has changed?
[and from another] Is it related to the warming of the oceans from the bottom and the wobble? Where will this lead?[and from another]
Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. [and from another]

It is clear from the charts that the Earth wobble has increased. First, despite Siberia being on the same latitude with Eastern Canada and Europe, there are vast temperature differences. The globe around the Arctic seems to be divided in half in this way at the current time. Just months ago, in July,
we stated that the hot and cold regions in the Northern Hemisphere were divided into four parts, due to the Polar Push and Bounce Back, and the lean to the Left and Right. Now the increased wobble has created a duality, not the quadrant arrangement of the Figure 8 that had been present since 2004.  

The Polar Push wherein the N Pole of Earth is shoved away from the approaching N Pole of Nibiru continues to create cold temperatures in Siberia, where the magnetic N Pole of Earth currently resides. This has also warmed Antarctica, which is getting more sunlight.  The Bounce Back is more fierce, so that Europe and eastern N America are also getting more sunlight, and thus the melting Arctic. What is missing is the temperature anomalies due to the tilt to the Left and Right. They have been lost in the more aggressive back and forth motion of the Polar Push and Bounce Back.  

Prior ZT: http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
The weather maps continue to document the daily Earth wobble, showing abnormal heat over the N American southwest and up into Alaska, and abnormal heat through Europe. Both these regions come under more equatorial sun due to the wobble, due to the lean to the left and then to the right. This is distinctly balanced by cold spots in between. Canada’s eastern provinces and the region above Hudson Bay receive less sunlight due this tilt to one side and then the other. Russia’s Far East and the Siberian region above China of course are pushed into the cold by the daily Polar Push, when the N Pole of Nibiru shoves the Earth magnetic N Pole away.


The Polar Push Effect:




Ecliptic Rise


Planet X approaches from the south, and the Pole Shift occurs because the S. Pole is pulled north with the N. Pole of Planet X during the passage. This stress is already evident in that many have noted that the Sun is too far south, rising too far to the south, for the time of year. Possible explanations for this are that the S. Pole has been pulled toward Planet X, creating a different tilt, but the constellations seem to be in their proper place. An alternate explanation is that the Earth's plane of the Ecliptic has changed, rising up, putting the Northern Hemisphere into a different slant, and placing the S. Pole more in line with the N. Pole of Planet X, an alignment Magnets Prefer.    

Natives to the Arctic,  the Inuit years ago already noticed many changes:

Uqalurait: the Snow is Speaking
November 23, 2009

An Igloolik elder, describes that uqalurait are changing because the earth itself has "tilted" and has thrown off the consistent wind patterns of the past. The earth tilting on its axis is another re-occuring observation that we are hearing from Inuit, which they know because of how the sun, moon and stars have changed in the sky. Indeed, elders simultaneously know the complexities of the cosmos, land, wind and sky.


Both Poles are affected!



The Zetas describe the Final Days of the Wobble:


During the last weeks, the Earth changes from being in an end-to-end alignment with Planet X to being in a side-by-side alignment. It is during the end-to-end alignment, when Planet X is pointing its N Pole directly at the Earth, that the lean to the left and 3 days of darkness occur. But as Planet X continues in its retrograde orbit, its N Pole is no longer coming from the right, but is located to the left of the Earth, and the Earth adjusts by slinging its N Pole to the right. Thus, during the 6 days of sunrise west, the Earth still has its N Pole tipped away from the Sun and the approaching Planet X, but rather than a lean to the left, it has a lean to the right.
It is at this point that the Earth switches from being in an end-to-end alignment to being in a side-by-side alignment with Planet X. When Planet X is just at the Ecliptic, it stands upright in alignment with the Sun. As it switches from pointing its N Pole at Earth the Earth follows suit.
ZetaTalk: September 12, 2009


Some charts to follow and/or post in this blog are HERE:

Climate ReAnalyzer


Google has the biggest collection of charts to view/post here!





With a stronger Polar Push the bounce back would likewise be more extreme, and the bounce back occurs when the Sun is over the Atlantic.  As the wobble continued to get worse, the Figure 8 corrective lean to the right and left also got more extreme. This sets the stage for the current 2017 hurricane season.

(Modified Earth images are from Google Earth)

Sunlight on Earth reflection based on image in the Planet X Related Captures Blog

The Figure 8 of the wobble creates a churning in the Atlantic:

1.) First land on either side of the Atlantic is pushed under water during the Polar Push,

2.) Then the N American Continent is slung to the East

3.) Then to the West as the day dawns and

4.) Then the bounce back pulls this land back up to the North. 

The wobble, in short, is churning the North Atlantic in a circular motion. Where this fits with the Coriolis effect, where the winds and water curl up from the Equator in a circular motion, moving clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, the lean to the left does a direct clash, pushing the storm back in a path toward the US coastline.

This is the current Wobble pattern, but the Wobble is subject to change:

5.) A lean into Opposition has occurred, the N Pole leaning toward the Sun. **NEW LEAN**

6.) And a temporary Lean to the Left could occur,

7.) as well as a temporary Day of Darkness for the Northern Hemisphere.

This is not a static situation. (this will occur more than once, in other words).

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Comment by SongStar101 on May 15, 2017 at 12:12pm

Satellites capture rapid movement of Arctic glacier (IMAGES)


Environment monitoring satellites have captured the rapid increase in speed of an Arctic glacier as it starts moving 13 times faster than before.

The Negribreen glacier on Norway’s Spitsbergen island has seen a dramatic increase in ice surface speed over the past year with the pace jumping from one meter a day to a staggering 13 meters every 24 hours.

This stunning surge in speed has been captured by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel-1 satellites which are providing round the clock radar imaging of land and ocean for the space agency’s Copernicus program.

“When a glacier ‘surges’ a large amount of ice flows to the end in an unusually short time,” the ESA explain.

The reasons behind these surges are not fully understood, but they are believed to be caused by increases in the amount of heat or water in the lowest layers of the glaciers.

A team of scientists from the ESA’s Climate Change Initiative are using satellite radar and optical coverage to map glaciers at different times and determine how they are changing.

Satellites allow them much greater ability to monitor the giant sheets of glaciers as they can see through clouds and other inclement weather.

“Sentinel-1 provides us with a near-realtime overview of glacier flow across the Arctic, remarkably augmenting our capacity to capture the evolution of glacier surges,” Tazio Strozzi, who is working on the project, said.

Negribreen began picking up pace in July last year and it has been movung faster ever since, even over the winter months.

The glacier last experienced a surge of this magnitude in the 1930s when it advanced almost 12 kilometers in one year. It has been steadily retreating over the past 80 years.

Comment by Kojima on May 12, 2017 at 2:48am

Rare 'dragon-skin' ice spotted in Antarctica and researchers are rushing to study the phenomenon

BYJEFF PARSONS 18:11, 9 MAY 2017; UPDATED18:14, 9 MAY 2017


You'd be forgiven for never having heard of dragon ice.

It's a rare phenomenon that occurs when intense wind buffets water around even as it freezes. The result is a dramatic natural formation that researchers still don't fully understand.

Recent sightings of dragon ice in Antarctica are the first in ten years and scientists are hoping to get a window of opportunity to study them.

"Dragon-skin ice is very rare, bizarre, evidence of a darker chaos in the cryospheric realm, not seen in Antarctica since 2007," said Dr Guy Williams, a member of the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania and one of the researchers who spotted the ice.

(Photo: IMAS)

The cryospheric realm is the area of our planet covered by surface ice - most notably the polar regions.

Dragon-skin ice is created by strong winds called katabatic winds. These winds are powerful enough to pick up the surface ice as it is freezing to expose the water underneath. That also freezes which creates the layered, scale-like pattern.

"Imagine your standard ice cube tray, filled once. After a week, you get one tray of ice cubes. But if you empty and re-fill the tray each night, you get so much more," said Williams.

(Photo: IMAS)

"That is what the katabatic winds are doing in the polynya, removing the ice, exposing the water, and making more ice form."

The dragon-skin ice was spotted by Williams and others whilst aboard the Nathaniel B. Palmer ice-breaker research vessel crossing the Ross Sea.

We will spend the next two weeks in the belly of this ice-breathing dragon, taking advantage of quiet periods when the katabatics drop off to observe the increase in salinity of the shelf waters below," said Williams.

The Nathaniel B. Palmer is set to finish its expedition in June.

Comment by Kojima on May 6, 2017 at 2:38pm

Antarctic ice rift spreads – new branch revealed in latest data from ice shelf


The rift in the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica now has a second branch, which is moving in the direction of the ice front, Swansea University researchers revealed after studying the latest satellite data.

The main rift in Larsen C, which is likely to lead to one of the largest icebergs ever recorded, is currently 180 km long.  The new branch of the rift is 15 km long.  

Last year, researchers from the UK's Project Midas, led by Swansea University, reported that the rift was growing fast.  Now, just 20km of ice is keeping the 5,000 sq km piece from floating away.

Picture:  the current location of the rift on Larsen C, as of May 1 2017.  Labels highlight significant jumps. Tip positions are derived from Landsat (USGS) and Sentinel-1 InSAR (ESA) data. Background image blends BEDMAP2 Elevation (BAS) with MODIS MOA2009 Image mosaic (NSIDC). Other data from SCAR ADD and OSM.

Professor Adrian Luckman of Swansea University College of Science, head of Project Midas, described the latest findings:

“While the previous rift tip has not advanced, a new branch of the rift has been initiated.  This is approximately 10km behind the previous tip, heading towards the ice-front.

This is the first significant change to the rift since February of this year.  Although the rift length has been static for several months, it has been steadily widening, at rates in excess of a metre per day.

It is currently winter in Antarctica, therefore direct visual observations are rare and low resolution. Our observations of the rift are based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry from ESA’s Sentinel-1 satellites.  Satellite radar interferometry allows a very precise monitoring of the rift development."

Researchers say the loss of a piece a quarter of the size of Wales will leave the whole shelf vulnerable to future break-up.  Larsen C is approximately 350m thick and floats on the seas at the edge of West Antarctica, holding back the flow of glaciers that feed into it.

Picture: Larsen C ice rift – aerial view.  (Credit:  John Sonntag/NASA)

Professor Adrian Luckman said:

“When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded; this event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula.

We have previously shown that the new configuration will be less stable than it was prior to the rift, and that Larsen C may eventually follow the example of its neighbour Larsen B, which disintegrated in 2002 following a similar rift-induced calving event.

The MIDAS Project will continue to monitor the development of the rift and assess its ongoing impact on the ice shelf. Further updates will be available on our blog, and on our Twitter feed

Find out more about Project Midas

Study geography at Swansea University College of Science

Picture:  ice flow velocities of Larsen C in February 2017, from ESA Sentinel-1 data.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 17, 2017 at 8:59am

Huge fleet of icebergs hits North Atlantic shipping lanes


About 450 icebergs – up from 37 a week earlier – have drifted into waters where Titanic sank, forcing vessels to divert and raising global warming fears.

More than 400 icebergs have drifted into the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the past week in an unusually large swarm for this early in the season, forcing vessels to slow to a crawl or take detours of hundreds of kilometres.

Experts are attributing it to uncommonly strong counter-clockwise winds that are drawing the icebergs south, and perhaps also global warming, which is accelerating the process by which chunks of the Greenland ice sheet break off and float away.

As of Monday, there were about 450 icebergs near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, up from 37 a week earlier, according to the US Coast Guard’s international ice patrol in New London, Connecticut. Those kinds of numbers are usually not seen until late May or early June. The average for this time of year is about 80.

In the waters close to where the Titanic went down in 1912, the icebergs are forcing ships to take precautions.

Instead of cutting straight across the ocean, trans-Atlantic vessels are taking detours that can add around 650km (400 miles) to the trip. That’s a day and a half of added travel time for many large cargo ships.

Close to the Newfoundland coast, cargo ships owned by Oceanex are throttling way back to three or four knots as they make their way to their home port in St John’s, which can add up to a day to the trip, said executive chairman Captain Sid Hynes.

One ship was pulled out of service for repairs after hitting a chunk of ice, he said.

“It makes everything more expensive,” Hynes said. “You’re burning more fuel, it’s taking a longer time, and it’s hard on the equipment.” He called it a “very unusual year”.

US Coast Guard Commander Gabrielle McGrath, who leads the ice patrol, said she had never seen such a drastic increase in such a short time. Adding to the danger, three icebergs were discovered outside the boundaries of the area the Coast Guard had advised mariners to avoid, she said.

McGrath is predicting a fourth consecutive “extreme ice season” with more than 600 icebergs in the shipping lanes.

Most icebergs entering the North Atlantic have “calved” off the Greenland ice sheet. Michael Mann, director of the earth system science center at Pennsylvania State University, said it was possible climate change was leading to more icebergs in the shipping lanes, but wind patterns were also important.

In 2014, there were 1,546 icebergs in the shipping lanes – the sixth most severe season on record since 1900, according to the patrol. There were 1,165 icebergs in 2015 and 687 in 2016.

The international ice patrol was formed after the sinking of the Titanic to monitor iceberg danger in the North Atlantic and warn ships. It conducts reconnaissance flights that are used to produce charts.

In 104 years, no ship that has heeded the warnings has struck an iceberg, according to the ice patrol.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 8:20am

Scientists just found a strange and worrying crack in one of Greenland's biggest glaciers


Scientists examining satellite images of one of Greenland's largest glaciers believe they have found an unexpected new crack in its floating ice shelf that could contribute to a dramatic break in coming years.

The Petermann glacier, located in the high Arctic at 80 degrees North latitude, is one of the most important outlets by which the Greenland ice sheet extends and flows into the sea. In 2010 and 2012 (see photo), it lost extremely large pieces, each several times the size of Manhattan, from its ice shelf, which floats on top of the waters of a fjord whose depth exceeds that of the Grand Canyon.

These changes captured the world's attention – and greatly shrank this floating shelf that stabilizes the glacier by attaching to the walls of the fjord in which it lies. That's a big deal because Petermann glacier holds back about a foot of potential sea level rise from the Greenland ice sheet.

Since the drama of 2010 and 2012, another large crack has begun to open and stretch towards the center of Petermann's ice shelf – which suggests the shelf could lose another large "ice island" soon. That's bad enough, but this week Stef Lhermitte, a researcher at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who studies Greenland using satellites, posted images suggesting the development of a second and different sort of crack, one that could potentially link up with the first one.

This crack, oddly, appeared to have formed in the middle of the ice shelf, rather than on its side where cracks usually begin. But given its location, it could potentially connect with the pre-existing crack if it continues to grow, extending it across much of the shelf.

Lhermitte told the Post he went back and analyzed past images, which appeared to confirm that the new crack has only begun to form since last summer – in other words, it seems to be a new feature, not visible in 2014 or 2015. But he also cautioned that he's an expert in satellite observing rather than on Petermann glacier itself, and he could not entirely rule out that the crack had been there before, but had been obscured by snow somehow.

Other researchers who know the glacier seemed to take Lhermitte's suggestion quite seriously. The Post reached out to four additional researchers or research groups to evaluate the images that Lhermitte posted. While they had a range of reactions, all agreed that the images did appear to show an apparent crack. And a common theme was that it appeared to be unusual and could possibly help precipitate a larger break.

Eric Rignot, a NASA and University of California-Irvine scientist who has studied Petermann up close, commented:

"The ice shelf is slowly but surely falling apart. It has been stable from 1901 till the 2000s, then started to break up, especially in 2010-2012. We have seen the glacier speed up for the first time around 2014-2015. Whether this new crack is significant or not is hard to tell as of now. It is unusual to see cracks forming from the center, they usually start from the sides. This could indicate that the ice shelf has gotten too thin in the middle."

Jason Box, a professor with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland – who has also visited Petermann and studied it firsthand – was more alarmed. He said that if the glacier breaks here the resulting ice island could be 50 to 70 square miles in size.

"Amazing to see a new crack forming and in a location well upstream of the present day calving front," said Box, calling it a "prelude to further retreat."


NASA just snapped the first photos of a mysterious crack in one of Greenland’s largest glaciers


Preliminary DMS image of the new rift in Greenland’s Petermann Glacier, directly beneath the NASA Operation IceBridge aircraft. (Gary Hoffmann/NASA).Oblique photo of a portion of the new rift, near bottom center, on Petermann Glacier’s floating ice shelf and an older curved rift from the flank of the shelf, near top center. The shaded feature near the bottom center is a medial flow line, which may exert a stagnating effect on the propagation of the new rift toward the older one. (Kelly Brunt/NASA)



Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 7:59am

Antarctic sea ice shrinks to smallest ever extent


Sea ice around Antarctica has shrunk to the smallest annual extent on record after years of resisting a trend of manmade global warming, preliminary US satellite data has shown.

Ice floating around the frozen continent usually melts to its smallest for the year towards the end of February, the southern hemisphere summer, before expanding again as the autumn chill sets in.

This year, sea ice extent contracted to 883,015 sq miles (2.28m sq km) on 13 February, according to daily data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

That extent is a fraction smaller than a previous low of 884,173 sq miles recorded on 27 February 1997 in satellite records dating back to 1979. Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said he would wait for a few days’ more measurements to confirm the record low.

“But, unless something funny happens, we’re looking at a record minimum in Antarctica,” he told Reuters. “Some people say it’s already happened. We tend to be conservative by looking at five-day running averages.”

In many recent years, the average extent of sea ice around Antarctica has tended to expand despite the overall trend of global warming, blamed on a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly from burning fossil fuels.

People sceptical of mainstream findings by climate scientists have often pointed to Antarctic sea ice as evidence against global warming. Some climate scientists have linked the paradoxical expansion to shifts in winds and ocean currents.

“We’ve always thought of the Antarctic as the sleeping elephant starting to stir,” Serreze said. “Well, maybe it’s starting to stir now.”

World average temperatures climbed to a record high in 2016 for the third year in a row. Climate scientists say warming is causing more extreme days of heat, downpours and is nudging up global sea levels.

At the other end of the planet, ice covering the Arctic Ocean has been at repeated lows in recent years.

In the northern winter, sea ice expands and is at its smallest extent for mid-February, at 5.38m sq miles.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 7:44am

Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral Continues, New Record Low Extent & Thickness For March

The Arctic sea ice death spiral is continuing to accelerate, with March 2017 setting new record lows (for the month) with regard to extent and thickness. That’s based on new data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The new records continue a half-year or so period of record-low or near-record-low Arctic sea ice. As you can see in the graphs below, there’s a pretty good chance that 2017 will set a new record low for Arctic sea ice — and there’s an increasing likelihood, from the looks of it, that an “ice free” Arctic Ocean (during the summer months) is only a few years off.

To put those comments another way, there was an ~452,000-square-mile expanse of open ocean that would have been ice at this time of year not that long ago this March.

Climate Central provides more: “Temperatures were up to 13°F above normal along Russia’s coastal seas. Incidentally, those areas — particularly the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk — were home to some of the largest sea ice anomalies. … Just as extent has set a record low in March, so too has thickness, according to data from the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center. NSIDC also reported that ice thinner than 6 feet ‘covers a much larger region and extends much farther north than it used to — well north of 80°N latitude on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.'”

Sea ice thickness is perhaps more interesting from the long-term perspective than sea ice extent is, as with decreasing thickness, the sea ice is much more prone to melting — meaning that there’s little doubt at this point that summer Arctic sea ice will be gone within a few decades at the most, and within just a few years at the earliest. Exact predictions of the behavior of complex systems are more or less impossible to make, but general trends can often be inferred without too much difficulty.

In this case, it’s clear that the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free state — a change that will have an enormous affect on the weather patterns of the region, in very unpredictable but dangerous ways.


Records are pushed farther again more than ever before:

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly


Arctic sea ice volume through March 2017 continued substantially below prior years.  March 2017 sea ice  volume was 19,600 km3 ,  1800 km3 below the previous record from  March in 2011.   This record is in part the result of anomalously high temperatures throughout the Arctic for November through January discussed here and here.  February volume was 39% below the maximum March ice volume in 1979,  27% below the 1979-2016 mean, and more than 1.7 standard deviations below the long term trend line.

Average ice thickness in March 2017 over the PIOMAS  domain is also the lowest on record (Fig 4.)

Note that the interpretation of average ice thickness needs to take into account that only areas with ice thickness greater than 15 cm are included so that years with less total volume can have a greater ice thickness.

Above Fig 6. Shows a map of the ice thickness anomaly for March  2017 relative to the 2000-2015 base period. Sea ice is thinner almost everywhere except for a persistent thick area reaching from the North Pole to Fram Strait. March 2017 also shows small positive thickness anomalies in the Eastern Beaufort and in Davis Strait. A strong negative thickness anomaly is present along the Siberian coast of the Chukchi Sea.  Some of the sea ice thickness anomalies seem to be associated with ice motion anomalies showing a counter clockwise pattern centered on the North Pole (Fig 7) below.

An animation showing the 1979 -2016 September ice thickness evolution can be found here.

Updates will be generated at approximately one-month intervals.


Comment by Stanislav on March 23, 2017 at 9:55pm

The Arctic, Antarctic poles just set a terrifying new record for low levels of sea ice

22 March, 2017. The amount of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic is at a record low and climate change is partly to blame, scientists announced Wednesday.

Overall, the combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice numbers are at their lowest point since satellites began to continuously measure sea ice in 1979. Arctic sea ice reached a record wintertime low for the third straight year, while sea ice around Antarctica shrank to its lowest summertime area on record. Scientists blame the decline in ice on a combination of natural, random weather and man-made global warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that has an annual cycle of melting during the summer and refreezing in winter. It floats on top of the ocean. The data comes from scientists at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo. “Nature is sending us yet another distress call — the time to address human-caused climate change is now," said Lou Leonard of the World Wildlife Fund. "The Arctic is dramatically changing and worldwide, people, communities and wildlife are at risk from its cascading effects."

Sea ice in the Arctic affects wildlife such as polar bears, seals and walruses. It also helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. It can affect weather in the U.S.

The area of Arctic ice this month was at 5.57 million square miles — 471,000 square miles less than average.

The Arctic has been freakishly warm over the past two years. “I have been looking at Arctic weather patterns for 35 years and have never seen anything close to what we’ve experienced these past two winters,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. The ongoing decline of sea ice in the Arctic "is a clear indicator of climate change,” said Walt Meier, a NASA scientist and an affiliate scientist at NSIDC. In Antarctica sea ice around the continent shrank to 815,000 square miles on March 3, the lowest on record, scientists said. The previous record low ice area in Antarctica occurred in 1997.

The causes of annual fluctuations in Antarctic sea ice are not as well understood as in the Arctic, scientists said, and can vary wildly from year to year. Source: usatoday.com

Comment by Stanislav on March 13, 2017 at 9:29pm

ZetaTalk Right Again? HALF of Arctic ice loss is driven by natural swings and not global warming, controversial study claim

  • Decline in ice cover due to 'random' and 'chaotic' natural changes in air currents
  • The rest has been driven by man-made global warming, scientists said

13 March, 2017. The Arctic icecap is shrinking – but it's not all our fault, a major study of the polar region has found.
At least half of the disappearance is down to natural processes, and not the fault of man made warming.
Part of the decline in ice cover is due to 'random' and 'chaotic' natural changes in air currents, researchers said.

The rest has been driven by man-made global warming, scientists said. The research means that although it is widely feared that the Arctic could soon be free of ice, this could be delayed if nature swings back to a cooler cycle.
Loss of the sea ice is predicted to have numerous effects on the planet: these include reflecting less light into space, potentially making the earth warmer and more predictable.
It will also reducing the habitat of animals such as polar bears.

Natural variations in the Arctic climate 'may be responsible for about 30–50 percent of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979,' the U.S.-based team of scientists wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Sea ice hit a record low in September 2012 - late summer in the Arctic - in satellite records dating back to 1979, and declines by around 10 per cent each year.

The average temperature last month was 41.2 degrees - 7.3 degrees warmer than normal but three-tenths a degree behind the record thanks to a cool Pacific Northwest. A freakishly balmy February broke more than 11,700 local daily records for warmth in the United States, but it didn't quite beat 1954 for the warmest February on record, climate scientists said. The average temperature last month was 41.2 degrees - 7.3 degrees warmer than normal but three-tenths a degree behind the record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Wednesday

The ice is now around the smallest for mid-March, rivalling winter lows set in 2016 and 2015.

The study, separating man-made from natural influences in the Arctic atmospheric circulation, said that a decades-long natural warming of the Arctic climate might be tied to shifts as far away as the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Lead author Qinghua Ding, of the University of California, Santa Barbara, said: 'If this natural mode would stop or reverse in the near future, we would see a slow-down of the recent fast melting trend, or even a recovery of sea ice.

The new model demonstrates that since 1979 a shift in wind patterns is responsible for about 60 percent of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean.
Much of this shift is related to climate change, but the study finds that 30 to 50 percent of the observed sea ice loss is due to natural variations in this large-scale atmospheric pattern.
According to the researchers, the long-term cycles are thought to be driven by the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Conditions there set off ripple effects, causing stationary atmospheric waves to snake around the globe and create areas of higher and lower air pressure.
Whether the atmosphere will stay in its current phase is unknown.
It could enter an opposite phase in which a low-pressure atmosphere over Arctic seas would cancel out much of the increased melting due to climate change.

But in the long term the build-up of man-made greenhouse gases would become an ever more overwhelming factor, he said.
Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, who was not involved in the study, said: 'Recent summer Arctic sea ice extents have all been amongst the lowest on record but this is not necessarily all due to warming global temperatures - part of the sea ice decline is also because of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Looking ahead, it is still a matter of when, rather than if, the Arctic will become ice-free in summer.'
The melt of the Arctic is disrupting the livelihoods of indigenous peoples and damaging wildlife such as polar bears and seals while opening the region to more oil and gas and shipping.

Professor Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, who did not participate in the study, welcomed it as pinning down the relative shares of natural and man-made influences. 'Nobody's done this attribution before,' he said.
The findings could help narrow down huge uncertainties about when the ice will vanish.
The term 'ice-free Arctic' is usually understood to be roughly 386,000 sq miles. Last summer it fell to around 1.6million sq miles.
In 2013, a U.N. panel of climate scientists merely said human influences had 'very likely contributed' to the loss of Arctic ice, without estimating how much.  It said that the ice could disappear by mid-century if emissions keep rising.
Professor Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at University College London, said: 'Over the last 3 decades satellite instruments have measured a ~3% per decade loss of summer minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic. Models have consistently underestimated the loss. 

'The new paper by Ding et al offers an explanation of the discrepancy. The authors provide evidence of a process by which decadal timescale natural variability of the Arctic atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 30-50% of the decline.
'Even so, the systematic component of loss due to human-induced climate change remains robust and significant.
'The possibility that the atmospheric variability in the Arctic is 'teleconnected' to changes in the tropical Pacific illustrates the complexity of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system and its capacity to deliver 'surprises'. Source: dailymail.co.uk

Comment by Stanislav on March 2, 2017 at 9:22pm

Antarctic Sea Ice Has Hit Its All-Time Low

Sea ice floating near the coast of West Antarctica as seen from a window of a NASA airplane in October. Mario Tama / Getty Images

2 March, 2017. It’s summer in Antarctica. But the reason behind the record drop in sea ice isn’t as simple as you might think.

In 38 years of satellite observations, climate scientists have never seen so little sea ice surrounding Antarctica as they do right now.
Only about 818,000 square miles of the ocean around Antarctica was frozen over with sea ice on March 1, according to data analyzed and published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

And another loss of #Antarctic sea ice extent - preliminary new (daily) all-time record low today. Seems like it will be a late-min. Source: twitter.com/ZLabe

Not only is that a record low of this time of year, but it is an all-time minimum for any day in the history of satellite observation of sea ice there.

Current year’s sea ice extent (NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS F-18) in addition to climatology (yellow, 1981-2010) and 2 standard deviations from the mean (updated 2/27/2016). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Because summer still has a few more weeks left in the Southern Hemisphere, that sea ice could shrink even more.
“We have still not bottomed out,” Mark Serreze, director of NSIDC, told BuzzFeed News. “This minimum could occur any day now. But it will definitely be a record.”

The history of sea ice extent in the Antarctic, with the light blue line representing ice in 2017. NSIDC / Via nsidc.org

An added bit of drama for Antarctica comes over the fate of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, a Delaware-sized slab of glacial ice rifting away from the Antarctic Peninsula. The 70 mile rift is more than a third of a mile deep and more than 300 feet wide.
Glaciologists have given the ice shelf weeks to months to calve, creating a massive iceberg. Its collapse will not raise sea levels, as the shelf is already floating. The 2002 collapse of the related Larsen B shelf played out over six weeks.

Animation shows daily Arctic sea ice extents for 2007, 2012, and 2016. The decadal averages are also included for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Plot updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA AMSR2) updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current year’s sea ice extent (NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS F-18) in addition to climatology (yellow, 1981-2010) and 2 standard deviations from the mean. Sea ice extent for 2016 is also plotted (updated 2/27/2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

A look at the cumulative change in Arctic sea ice extent for February (JAXA AMSR2). Updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest daily Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA AMSR2) for 2017. Mean sea ice extents from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s are also shown by the dashed lines. Yearly maximum extents (2003-2016) are shown by the scatter points with color in reference to the magnitude. Updated 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current Arctic sea ice extents (JAXA AMSR2) from 2003-present. Color bars are red when 2017 has dropped below the prior year. Updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Over the past several months, the Arctic Ocean on the opposite side of the world has also seen record-low sea ice — a new nadir in a decades-long decline that, climate scientists say, is one of the many fingerprints of humans’ hand in warming Earth’s atmosphere and oceans through the burning of fossil fuels.
But the influence of the release of heat-trapping gases is much less clear with sea ice around the South Pole. The overall extent of Antarctic sea ice has bucked the predictions of climate models, which say frozen continent’s sea ice should be shrinking. In reality, the trend since 1979 has been one of slight, if highly variable, increase.
That variability is born out by the fact that only three years ago, in 2014, Antarctic sea ice set a record high.
The extent of Antarctic sea ice appears to be more sensitive to seasonal weather rather than long-term warming, as is the case in the Arctic.

Trends in sea ice thickness/volume are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize January sea ice thickness and volume from 1979 to 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current simulated (PIOMAS; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice thickness and anomalies (1981-2010) updated through January 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest PIOMAS (model; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated for January 2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest PIOMAS (model, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated through January 2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Trends in sea ice thickness are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize mean sea ice thickness from 1979 to 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

“Unlike the Arctic, most sea ice around Antarctica is first-year ice,” Zachary Labe, a Ph.D. student in climate science at the University of California, Irvine, “meaning most of it melts during the warm season and then reforms during the cold/freeze season.”
Winds, for example, play a larger role in determining Antarctic sea ice extent, not only by bringing in warm air to melt ice but, more importantly, by jostling the ice loose, exposing more of the unfrozen ocean.

A natural climate pattern seemingly unrelated to human activity, called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, may have helped the Antarctic keep sea ice for longer than computer simulations of human-induced warming would suggest, Serreze said.
That oscillation refers to the sloshing of warmth from the northern Pacific Ocean to the southern Pacific, and back, over a cycle that takes anywhere from 15 to 30 years. Colder conditions in the ocean’s southern waters have encouraged sea ice growth.
“It’s a bit of a puzzle here,” Serreze said. “We’re trying to catch up with this.”
The question now for climate scientists is determining whether this new record low is the beginning of the effect of man-made climate change finally swaying of Antarctic sea ice.
“We’re still not quite sure,” Serreze said. Source: buzzfeed.com

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