New Polar Push & Bounce Back -Trends at the Extremes

This blog is about the Arctic,Antarctica and Extreme Northern/Southern Hemispheres.  Are New Trends happening at the Poles? Weather Patterns, Charts, Images and Unusual Anomalies may be telling us something!

According to the Zetas,  the Wobble Effect has now combined with a new Polar Push!!  

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http://poleshift.ning.com/forum/topics/zetatalk-chat-for-november-2...

Both poles the sea ice loss is off the charts this month!  Seems something has changed?
[and from another]
Is it related to the warming of the oceans from the bottom and the wobble? Where will this lead?
[and from another]
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...
Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures.
[and from another]
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/extraordinarily...



SOZT
It is clear from the charts that the Earth wobble has increased. First, despite Siberia being on the same latitude with Eastern Canada and Europe, there are vast temperature differences. The globe around the Arctic seems to be divided in half in this way at the current time. Just months ago, in July,
http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
we stated that the hot and cold regions in the Northern Hemisphere were divided into four parts, due to the Polar Push and Bounce Back, and the lean to the Left and Right. Now the increased wobble has created a duality, not the quadrant arrangement of the Figure 8 that had been present since 2004.  

The Polar Push wherein the N Pole of Earth is shoved away from the approaching N Pole of Nibiru continues to create cold temperatures in Siberia, where the magnetic N Pole of Earth currently resides. This has also warmed Antarctica, which is getting more sunlight.  The Bounce Back is more fierce, so that Europe and eastern N America are also getting more sunlight, and thus the melting Arctic. What is missing is the temperature anomalies due to the tilt to the Left and Right. They have been lost in the more aggressive back and forth motion of the Polar Push and Bounce Back.  
EOZT

Prior ZT: http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/23jy2016.htm
The weather maps continue to document the daily Earth wobble, showing abnormal heat over the N American southwest and up into Alaska, and abnormal heat through Europe. Both these regions come under more equatorial sun due to the wobble, due to the lean to the left and then to the right. This is distinctly balanced by cold spots in between. Canada’s eastern provinces and the region above Hudson Bay receive less sunlight due this tilt to one side and then the other. Russia’s Far East and the Siberian region above China of course are pushed into the cold by the daily Polar Push, when the N Pole of Nibiru shoves the Earth magnetic N Pole away.

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The Polar Push Effect:

http://zetatalk.com/index/zeta103.htm

 

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Ecliptic Rise

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/earthtil.htm

Planet X approaches from the south, and the Pole Shift occurs because the S. Pole is pulled north with the N. Pole of Planet X during the passage. This stress is already evident in that many have noted that the Sun is too far south, rising too far to the south, for the time of year. Possible explanations for this are that the S. Pole has been pulled toward Planet X, creating a different tilt, but the constellations seem to be in their proper place. An alternate explanation is that the Earth's plane of the Ecliptic has changed, rising up, putting the Northern Hemisphere into a different slant, and placing the S. Pole more in line with the N. Pole of Planet X, an alignment Magnets Prefer.    

Natives to the Arctic,  the Inuit years ago already noticed many changes:

Uqalurait: the Snow is Speaking
November 23, 2009
http://www.isuma.tv/hi/en/inuit-knowledge-and-climate-change/uqalur...

An Igloolik elder, describes that uqalurait are changing because the earth itself has "tilted" and has thrown off the consistent wind patterns of the past. The earth tilting on its axis is another re-occuring observation that we are hearing from Inuit, which they know because of how the sun, moon and stars have changed in the sky. Indeed, elders simultaneously know the complexities of the cosmos, land, wind and sky.

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Both Poles are affected!

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-reco...

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The Zetas describe the Final Days of the Wobble:

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/zeta582.htm

During the last weeks, the Earth changes from being in an end-to-end alignment with Planet X to being in a side-by-side alignment. It is during the end-to-end alignment, when Planet X is pointing its N Pole directly at the Earth, that the lean to the left and 3 days of darkness occur. But as Planet X continues in its retrograde orbit, its N Pole is no longer coming from the right, but is located to the left of the Earth, and the Earth adjusts by slinging its N Pole to the right. Thus, during the 6 days of sunrise west, the Earth still has its N Pole tipped away from the Sun and the approaching Planet X, but rather than a lean to the left, it has a lean to the right.
 
It is at this point that the Earth switches from being in an end-to-end alignment to being in a side-by-side alignment with Planet X. When Planet X is just at the Ecliptic, it stands upright in alignment with the Sun. As it switches from pointing its N Pole at Earth the Earth follows suit.
ZetaTalk: September 12, 2009

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Some charts to follow and/or post in this blog are HERE:

Climate ReAnalyzer

http://cci-reanalyzer.org

Google has the biggest collection of charts to view/post here!

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

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Comment by SongStar101 on April 17, 2017 at 8:59am

Huge fleet of icebergs hits North Atlantic shipping lanes

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/huge-fleet-iceb...

About 450 icebergs – up from 37 a week earlier – have drifted into waters where Titanic sank, forcing vessels to divert and raising global warming fears.

More than 400 icebergs have drifted into the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the past week in an unusually large swarm for this early in the season, forcing vessels to slow to a crawl or take detours of hundreds of kilometres.

Experts are attributing it to uncommonly strong counter-clockwise winds that are drawing the icebergs south, and perhaps also global warming, which is accelerating the process by which chunks of the Greenland ice sheet break off and float away.

As of Monday, there were about 450 icebergs near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, up from 37 a week earlier, according to the US Coast Guard’s international ice patrol in New London, Connecticut. Those kinds of numbers are usually not seen until late May or early June. The average for this time of year is about 80.

In the waters close to where the Titanic went down in 1912, the icebergs are forcing ships to take precautions.

Instead of cutting straight across the ocean, trans-Atlantic vessels are taking detours that can add around 650km (400 miles) to the trip. That’s a day and a half of added travel time for many large cargo ships.

Close to the Newfoundland coast, cargo ships owned by Oceanex are throttling way back to three or four knots as they make their way to their home port in St John’s, which can add up to a day to the trip, said executive chairman Captain Sid Hynes.

One ship was pulled out of service for repairs after hitting a chunk of ice, he said.

“It makes everything more expensive,” Hynes said. “You’re burning more fuel, it’s taking a longer time, and it’s hard on the equipment.” He called it a “very unusual year”.

US Coast Guard Commander Gabrielle McGrath, who leads the ice patrol, said she had never seen such a drastic increase in such a short time. Adding to the danger, three icebergs were discovered outside the boundaries of the area the Coast Guard had advised mariners to avoid, she said.

McGrath is predicting a fourth consecutive “extreme ice season” with more than 600 icebergs in the shipping lanes.

Most icebergs entering the North Atlantic have “calved” off the Greenland ice sheet. Michael Mann, director of the earth system science center at Pennsylvania State University, said it was possible climate change was leading to more icebergs in the shipping lanes, but wind patterns were also important.

In 2014, there were 1,546 icebergs in the shipping lanes – the sixth most severe season on record since 1900, according to the patrol. There were 1,165 icebergs in 2015 and 687 in 2016.

The international ice patrol was formed after the sinking of the Titanic to monitor iceberg danger in the North Atlantic and warn ships. It conducts reconnaissance flights that are used to produce charts.

In 104 years, no ship that has heeded the warnings has struck an iceberg, according to the ice patrol.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 8:20am

Scientists just found a strange and worrying crack in one of Greenland's biggest glaciers

https://www.adn.com/arctic/2017/04/14/scientists-just-found-a-stran...

Scientists examining satellite images of one of Greenland's largest glaciers believe they have found an unexpected new crack in its floating ice shelf that could contribute to a dramatic break in coming years.

The Petermann glacier, located in the high Arctic at 80 degrees North latitude, is one of the most important outlets by which the Greenland ice sheet extends and flows into the sea. In 2010 and 2012 (see photo), it lost extremely large pieces, each several times the size of Manhattan, from its ice shelf, which floats on top of the waters of a fjord whose depth exceeds that of the Grand Canyon.

These changes captured the world's attention – and greatly shrank this floating shelf that stabilizes the glacier by attaching to the walls of the fjord in which it lies. That's a big deal because Petermann glacier holds back about a foot of potential sea level rise from the Greenland ice sheet.

Since the drama of 2010 and 2012, another large crack has begun to open and stretch towards the center of Petermann's ice shelf – which suggests the shelf could lose another large "ice island" soon. That's bad enough, but this week Stef Lhermitte, a researcher at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who studies Greenland using satellites, posted images suggesting the development of a second and different sort of crack, one that could potentially link up with the first one.

This crack, oddly, appeared to have formed in the middle of the ice shelf, rather than on its side where cracks usually begin. But given its location, it could potentially connect with the pre-existing crack if it continues to grow, extending it across much of the shelf.

Lhermitte told the Post he went back and analyzed past images, which appeared to confirm that the new crack has only begun to form since last summer – in other words, it seems to be a new feature, not visible in 2014 or 2015. But he also cautioned that he's an expert in satellite observing rather than on Petermann glacier itself, and he could not entirely rule out that the crack had been there before, but had been obscured by snow somehow.

Other researchers who know the glacier seemed to take Lhermitte's suggestion quite seriously. The Post reached out to four additional researchers or research groups to evaluate the images that Lhermitte posted. While they had a range of reactions, all agreed that the images did appear to show an apparent crack. And a common theme was that it appeared to be unusual and could possibly help precipitate a larger break.

Eric Rignot, a NASA and University of California-Irvine scientist who has studied Petermann up close, commented:

"The ice shelf is slowly but surely falling apart. It has been stable from 1901 till the 2000s, then started to break up, especially in 2010-2012. We have seen the glacier speed up for the first time around 2014-2015. Whether this new crack is significant or not is hard to tell as of now. It is unusual to see cracks forming from the center, they usually start from the sides. This could indicate that the ice shelf has gotten too thin in the middle."

Jason Box, a professor with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland – who has also visited Petermann and studied it firsthand – was more alarmed. He said that if the glacier breaks here the resulting ice island could be 50 to 70 square miles in size.

"Amazing to see a new crack forming and in a location well upstream of the present day calving front," said Box, calling it a "prelude to further retreat."


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NASA just snapped the first photos of a mysterious crack in one of Greenland’s largest glaciers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/1...

Preliminary DMS image of the new rift in Greenland’s Petermann Glacier, directly beneath the NASA Operation IceBridge aircraft. (Gary Hoffmann/NASA).Oblique photo of a portion of the new rift, near bottom center, on Petermann Glacier’s floating ice shelf and an older curved rift from the flank of the shelf, near top center. The shaded feature near the bottom center is a medial flow line, which may exert a stagnating effect on the propagation of the new rift toward the older one. (Kelly Brunt/NASA)

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/1...

Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 7:59am

Antarctic sea ice shrinks to smallest ever extent

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/antarctic-sea-ice-shr...

Sea ice around Antarctica has shrunk to the smallest annual extent on record after years of resisting a trend of manmade global warming, preliminary US satellite data has shown.

Ice floating around the frozen continent usually melts to its smallest for the year towards the end of February, the southern hemisphere summer, before expanding again as the autumn chill sets in.

This year, sea ice extent contracted to 883,015 sq miles (2.28m sq km) on 13 February, according to daily data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

That extent is a fraction smaller than a previous low of 884,173 sq miles recorded on 27 February 1997 in satellite records dating back to 1979. Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said he would wait for a few days’ more measurements to confirm the record low.

“But, unless something funny happens, we’re looking at a record minimum in Antarctica,” he told Reuters. “Some people say it’s already happened. We tend to be conservative by looking at five-day running averages.”

In many recent years, the average extent of sea ice around Antarctica has tended to expand despite the overall trend of global warming, blamed on a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly from burning fossil fuels.

People sceptical of mainstream findings by climate scientists have often pointed to Antarctic sea ice as evidence against global warming. Some climate scientists have linked the paradoxical expansion to shifts in winds and ocean currents.

“We’ve always thought of the Antarctic as the sleeping elephant starting to stir,” Serreze said. “Well, maybe it’s starting to stir now.”

World average temperatures climbed to a record high in 2016 for the third year in a row. Climate scientists say warming is causing more extreme days of heat, downpours and is nudging up global sea levels.

At the other end of the planet, ice covering the Arctic Ocean has been at repeated lows in recent years.

In the northern winter, sea ice expands and is at its smallest extent for mid-February, at 5.38m sq miles.

Comment by SongStar101 on April 16, 2017 at 7:44am

Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral Continues, New Record Low Extent & Thickness For March

The Arctic sea ice death spiral is continuing to accelerate, with March 2017 setting new record lows (for the month) with regard to extent and thickness. That’s based on new data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The new records continue a half-year or so period of record-low or near-record-low Arctic sea ice. As you can see in the graphs below, there’s a pretty good chance that 2017 will set a new record low for Arctic sea ice — and there’s an increasing likelihood, from the looks of it, that an “ice free” Arctic Ocean (during the summer months) is only a few years off.

To put those comments another way, there was an ~452,000-square-mile expanse of open ocean that would have been ice at this time of year not that long ago this March.

Climate Central provides more: “Temperatures were up to 13°F above normal along Russia’s coastal seas. Incidentally, those areas — particularly the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk — were home to some of the largest sea ice anomalies. … Just as extent has set a record low in March, so too has thickness, according to data from the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center. NSIDC also reported that ice thinner than 6 feet ‘covers a much larger region and extends much farther north than it used to — well north of 80°N latitude on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.'”

Sea ice thickness is perhaps more interesting from the long-term perspective than sea ice extent is, as with decreasing thickness, the sea ice is much more prone to melting — meaning that there’s little doubt at this point that summer Arctic sea ice will be gone within a few decades at the most, and within just a few years at the earliest. Exact predictions of the behavior of complex systems are more or less impossible to make, but general trends can often be inferred without too much difficulty.

In this case, it’s clear that the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free state — a change that will have an enormous affect on the weather patterns of the region, in very unpredictable but dangerous ways.

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Records are pushed farther again more than ever before:

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volu...

Arctic sea ice volume through March 2017 continued substantially below prior years.  March 2017 sea ice  volume was 19,600 km3 ,  1800 km3 below the previous record from  March in 2011.   This record is in part the result of anomalously high temperatures throughout the Arctic for November through January discussed here and here.  February volume was 39% below the maximum March ice volume in 1979,  27% below the 1979-2016 mean, and more than 1.7 standard deviations below the long term trend line.

Average ice thickness in March 2017 over the PIOMAS  domain is also the lowest on record (Fig 4.)

Note that the interpretation of average ice thickness needs to take into account that only areas with ice thickness greater than 15 cm are included so that years with less total volume can have a greater ice thickness.

Above Fig 6. Shows a map of the ice thickness anomaly for March  2017 relative to the 2000-2015 base period. Sea ice is thinner almost everywhere except for a persistent thick area reaching from the North Pole to Fram Strait. March 2017 also shows small positive thickness anomalies in the Eastern Beaufort and in Davis Strait. A strong negative thickness anomaly is present along the Siberian coast of the Chukchi Sea.  Some of the sea ice thickness anomalies seem to be associated with ice motion anomalies showing a counter clockwise pattern centered on the North Pole (Fig 7) below.

An animation showing the 1979 -2016 September ice thickness evolution can be found here.

Updates will be generated at approximately one-month intervals.

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Comment by Stanislav on March 23, 2017 at 9:55pm

The Arctic, Antarctic poles just set a terrifying new record for low levels of sea ice

22 March, 2017. The amount of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic is at a record low and climate change is partly to blame, scientists announced Wednesday.

Overall, the combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice numbers are at their lowest point since satellites began to continuously measure sea ice in 1979. Arctic sea ice reached a record wintertime low for the third straight year, while sea ice around Antarctica shrank to its lowest summertime area on record. Scientists blame the decline in ice on a combination of natural, random weather and man-made global warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that has an annual cycle of melting during the summer and refreezing in winter. It floats on top of the ocean. The data comes from scientists at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo. “Nature is sending us yet another distress call — the time to address human-caused climate change is now," said Lou Leonard of the World Wildlife Fund. "The Arctic is dramatically changing and worldwide, people, communities and wildlife are at risk from its cascading effects."

Sea ice in the Arctic affects wildlife such as polar bears, seals and walruses. It also helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. It can affect weather in the U.S.

The area of Arctic ice this month was at 5.57 million square miles — 471,000 square miles less than average.

The Arctic has been freakishly warm over the past two years. “I have been looking at Arctic weather patterns for 35 years and have never seen anything close to what we’ve experienced these past two winters,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. The ongoing decline of sea ice in the Arctic "is a clear indicator of climate change,” said Walt Meier, a NASA scientist and an affiliate scientist at NSIDC. In Antarctica sea ice around the continent shrank to 815,000 square miles on March 3, the lowest on record, scientists said. The previous record low ice area in Antarctica occurred in 1997.

The causes of annual fluctuations in Antarctic sea ice are not as well understood as in the Arctic, scientists said, and can vary wildly from year to year. Source: usatoday.com

Comment by Stanislav on March 13, 2017 at 9:29pm

ZetaTalk Right Again? HALF of Arctic ice loss is driven by natural swings and not global warming, controversial study claim

  • Decline in ice cover due to 'random' and 'chaotic' natural changes in air currents
  • The rest has been driven by man-made global warming, scientists said

13 March, 2017. The Arctic icecap is shrinking – but it's not all our fault, a major study of the polar region has found.
At least half of the disappearance is down to natural processes, and not the fault of man made warming.
Part of the decline in ice cover is due to 'random' and 'chaotic' natural changes in air currents, researchers said.

The rest has been driven by man-made global warming, scientists said. The research means that although it is widely feared that the Arctic could soon be free of ice, this could be delayed if nature swings back to a cooler cycle.
Loss of the sea ice is predicted to have numerous effects on the planet: these include reflecting less light into space, potentially making the earth warmer and more predictable.
It will also reducing the habitat of animals such as polar bears.

Natural variations in the Arctic climate 'may be responsible for about 30–50 percent of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979,' the U.S.-based team of scientists wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Sea ice hit a record low in September 2012 - late summer in the Arctic - in satellite records dating back to 1979, and declines by around 10 per cent each year.

The average temperature last month was 41.2 degrees - 7.3 degrees warmer than normal but three-tenths a degree behind the record thanks to a cool Pacific Northwest. A freakishly balmy February broke more than 11,700 local daily records for warmth in the United States, but it didn't quite beat 1954 for the warmest February on record, climate scientists said. The average temperature last month was 41.2 degrees - 7.3 degrees warmer than normal but three-tenths a degree behind the record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Wednesday

The ice is now around the smallest for mid-March, rivalling winter lows set in 2016 and 2015.

The study, separating man-made from natural influences in the Arctic atmospheric circulation, said that a decades-long natural warming of the Arctic climate might be tied to shifts as far away as the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Lead author Qinghua Ding, of the University of California, Santa Barbara, said: 'If this natural mode would stop or reverse in the near future, we would see a slow-down of the recent fast melting trend, or even a recovery of sea ice.

THE PACIFIC OCEAN EFFECT
The new model demonstrates that since 1979 a shift in wind patterns is responsible for about 60 percent of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean.
Much of this shift is related to climate change, but the study finds that 30 to 50 percent of the observed sea ice loss is due to natural variations in this large-scale atmospheric pattern.
According to the researchers, the long-term cycles are thought to be driven by the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Conditions there set off ripple effects, causing stationary atmospheric waves to snake around the globe and create areas of higher and lower air pressure.
Whether the atmosphere will stay in its current phase is unknown.
It could enter an opposite phase in which a low-pressure atmosphere over Arctic seas would cancel out much of the increased melting due to climate change.

But in the long term the build-up of man-made greenhouse gases would become an ever more overwhelming factor, he said.
Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, who was not involved in the study, said: 'Recent summer Arctic sea ice extents have all been amongst the lowest on record but this is not necessarily all due to warming global temperatures - part of the sea ice decline is also because of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Looking ahead, it is still a matter of when, rather than if, the Arctic will become ice-free in summer.'
The melt of the Arctic is disrupting the livelihoods of indigenous peoples and damaging wildlife such as polar bears and seals while opening the region to more oil and gas and shipping.

Professor Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, who did not participate in the study, welcomed it as pinning down the relative shares of natural and man-made influences. 'Nobody's done this attribution before,' he said.
The findings could help narrow down huge uncertainties about when the ice will vanish.
The term 'ice-free Arctic' is usually understood to be roughly 386,000 sq miles. Last summer it fell to around 1.6million sq miles.
In 2013, a U.N. panel of climate scientists merely said human influences had 'very likely contributed' to the loss of Arctic ice, without estimating how much.  It said that the ice could disappear by mid-century if emissions keep rising.
Professor Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at University College London, said: 'Over the last 3 decades satellite instruments have measured a ~3% per decade loss of summer minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic. Models have consistently underestimated the loss. 

'The new paper by Ding et al offers an explanation of the discrepancy. The authors provide evidence of a process by which decadal timescale natural variability of the Arctic atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 30-50% of the decline.
'Even so, the systematic component of loss due to human-induced climate change remains robust and significant.
'The possibility that the atmospheric variability in the Arctic is 'teleconnected' to changes in the tropical Pacific illustrates the complexity of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system and its capacity to deliver 'surprises'. Source: dailymail.co.uk

Comment by Stanislav on March 2, 2017 at 9:22pm

Antarctic Sea Ice Has Hit Its All-Time Low

Sea ice floating near the coast of West Antarctica as seen from a window of a NASA airplane in October. Mario Tama / Getty Images

2 March, 2017. It’s summer in Antarctica. But the reason behind the record drop in sea ice isn’t as simple as you might think.

In 38 years of satellite observations, climate scientists have never seen so little sea ice surrounding Antarctica as they do right now.
Only about 818,000 square miles of the ocean around Antarctica was frozen over with sea ice on March 1, according to data analyzed and published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

And another loss of #Antarctic sea ice extent - preliminary new (daily) all-time record low today. Seems like it will be a late-min. Source: twitter.com/ZLabe

Not only is that a record low of this time of year, but it is an all-time minimum for any day in the history of satellite observation of sea ice there.

Current year’s sea ice extent (NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS F-18) in addition to climatology (yellow, 1981-2010) and 2 standard deviations from the mean (updated 2/27/2016). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Because summer still has a few more weeks left in the Southern Hemisphere, that sea ice could shrink even more.
“We have still not bottomed out,” Mark Serreze, director of NSIDC, told BuzzFeed News. “This minimum could occur any day now. But it will definitely be a record.”

The history of sea ice extent in the Antarctic, with the light blue line representing ice in 2017. NSIDC / Via nsidc.org

An added bit of drama for Antarctica comes over the fate of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, a Delaware-sized slab of glacial ice rifting away from the Antarctic Peninsula. The 70 mile rift is more than a third of a mile deep and more than 300 feet wide.
Glaciologists have given the ice shelf weeks to months to calve, creating a massive iceberg. Its collapse will not raise sea levels, as the shelf is already floating. The 2002 collapse of the related Larsen B shelf played out over six weeks.

Animation shows daily Arctic sea ice extents for 2007, 2012, and 2016. The decadal averages are also included for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Plot updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA AMSR2) updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current year’s sea ice extent (NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS F-18) in addition to climatology (yellow, 1981-2010) and 2 standard deviations from the mean. Sea ice extent for 2016 is also plotted (updated 2/27/2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

A look at the cumulative change in Arctic sea ice extent for February (JAXA AMSR2). Updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest daily Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA AMSR2) for 2017. Mean sea ice extents from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s are also shown by the dashed lines. Yearly maximum extents (2003-2016) are shown by the scatter points with color in reference to the magnitude. Updated 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current Arctic sea ice extents (JAXA AMSR2) from 2003-present. Color bars are red when 2017 has dropped below the prior year. Updated through 2/27/2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Over the past several months, the Arctic Ocean on the opposite side of the world has also seen record-low sea ice — a new nadir in a decades-long decline that, climate scientists say, is one of the many fingerprints of humans’ hand in warming Earth’s atmosphere and oceans through the burning of fossil fuels.
But the influence of the release of heat-trapping gases is much less clear with sea ice around the South Pole. The overall extent of Antarctic sea ice has bucked the predictions of climate models, which say frozen continent’s sea ice should be shrinking. In reality, the trend since 1979 has been one of slight, if highly variable, increase.
That variability is born out by the fact that only three years ago, in 2014, Antarctic sea ice set a record high.
The extent of Antarctic sea ice appears to be more sensitive to seasonal weather rather than long-term warming, as is the case in the Arctic.

Trends in sea ice thickness/volume are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize January sea ice thickness and volume from 1979 to 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Current simulated (PIOMAS; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice thickness and anomalies (1981-2010) updated through January 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest PIOMAS (model; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated for January 2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Latest PIOMAS (model, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated through January 2017). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Trends in sea ice thickness are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize mean sea ice thickness from 1979 to 2017. Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

“Unlike the Arctic, most sea ice around Antarctica is first-year ice,” Zachary Labe, a Ph.D. student in climate science at the University of California, Irvine, “meaning most of it melts during the warm season and then reforms during the cold/freeze season.”
Winds, for example, play a larger role in determining Antarctic sea ice extent, not only by bringing in warm air to melt ice but, more importantly, by jostling the ice loose, exposing more of the unfrozen ocean.

A natural climate pattern seemingly unrelated to human activity, called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, may have helped the Antarctic keep sea ice for longer than computer simulations of human-induced warming would suggest, Serreze said.
That oscillation refers to the sloshing of warmth from the northern Pacific Ocean to the southern Pacific, and back, over a cycle that takes anywhere from 15 to 30 years. Colder conditions in the ocean’s southern waters have encouraged sea ice growth.
“It’s a bit of a puzzle here,” Serreze said. “We’re trying to catch up with this.”
The question now for climate scientists is determining whether this new record low is the beginning of the effect of man-made climate change finally swaying of Antarctic sea ice.
“We’re still not quite sure,” Serreze said. Source: buzzfeed.com

Comment by Stanislav on March 2, 2017 at 9:10pm

Antarctic ice has set an unexpected record, and scientists are struggling to figure out why

1 March, 2017. There’s no mistaking it now. Even though we don’t have the final numbers, it is abundantly clear that the sea ice ringing the Antarctic continent has fallen precipitously — reaching a record low just a few short years after it reached a record high.

2016 was a particularly bad year for #Arctic sea ice... decrease in ice extent over time in every month. Source: twitter.com/MetmanJames

In 38 years of records dating back to 1979, the sea ice lows seen as of the end of February 2017 — a time of year when ice in the Antarctic is at its annual minimum — are unprecedented. The area of ocean covered by sea ice still appears to be shrinking, but as of Feb. 28, there were just 2.131 million square kilometers of floating ice surrounding Antarctica, according to near-real time data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

That’s much less than the prior low of 2.29 million square kilometers on Feb. 27, 1997. The difference — about 159,000 square kilometers, or 61,390 square miles — amounts to an area nearly as large as Florida.

Source: Mean surface air temperature north of 66N (Arctic Circle) over 1948-2016 (Jan-December). Temperature reanalysis using NCEP/NCAR. (Updated 1/3/17). Source: By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Here’s what 2017 (the light blue line) looks like when you compare it with the other four lowest years in the record (1984, 1993, 1997 and 2011), based on the helpful “Charctic” tool offered by the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

The black line is the median ice extent from 1981 to 2010. (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

The data here are reported as a five-day average and should not be considered final — there could still be adjustments. And the ice could go lower before it rebounds as colder temperatures begin to return to the Antarctic. Still, the margin is large enough that a record is unavoidable, says Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, although he said his group will wait to call one formally until they’re sure an annual minimum has been reached and the ice is growing again.

Source: nsidc.org

“It’s going to be a record low minimum no matter what happens right now, it’s just a matter of, how low do we go,” Serreze said Monday. “It could be any day now.” (The ice is even lower now than it was when we spoke.)

Animation shows daily Arctic sea ice extents for 2007, 2012, and 2016. The decadal averages are also included for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Plot updated through 2/27/2017. By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

Far more difficult than pinpointing the actual ice extent is the question of why this is happening. The simple fact that the previous record low was in 1997, 20 years ago, “really goes to show you how variable the system is down there,” Serreze said. Indeed, the overall Antarctic sea ice trend, bucking climate change expectations, has been a slight increase over time, rather than a shrinkage.

Latest Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA AMSR2) updated through 2/27/2017. By Zachary Michael Labe. Link

All of that said, 2017 is a year that looks like what we ought to expect on a warming planet based on climate models, said Cecilia Bitz, an expert on sea ice at the University of Washington in Seattle. The confusing thing, she continued, is that other recent years have not matched the expectations created by those models at all. As mentioned earlier, before this most recent crash, Antarctic sea ice reached a record high in October 2014.

Source: climate.gov

This is one reason that, until recently, climate change skeptics loved to point to Antarctic sea ice behavior to justify their rejection of mainstream climate science — something I highlighted two weeks ago when the current Antarctic record was already beginning to emerge.

(Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington)

The story for Antarctic ice this year, Bitz said, can’t be understood unless we look back to September and October, when ice levels were relatively normal but suddenly plunged. It was the loss then that exposed the ocean to 24-hour sunlight in the austral summer, helped it warm up and ultimately set in motion the record we’re now seeing. “We went from really typical conditions to record low in a two-month period, so I think that’s when we should be focusing,” Bitz said of the months in late 2016.

Source: cci-reanalyzer.org

Here’s a figure she provided, showing that Antarctic ice extent looked fairly normal throughout much of 2016, but then steeply plummeted at the end of the year, with particularly anomalous low levels of ice in November and December: The cause at that time, Bitz said, was an incursion of warm air from the north into multiple parts of the Antarctic. What drove down the warm air, though, is another matter

This graphic depicts the record low winter sea-ice extent in 2016-2017 (blue), compared with the previous record set in 2011-2012 (dotted line) and the 1981-2010 average (gray line). The light gray bar captures 95 percent of the observed natural range of variability from the average during that period. (National Snow and Ice Data Center). Source: noaa.gov

“I think it’s a mystery,” Bitzsaid. One leading idea to explain what’s happening with Antarctic sea ice, advanced in a paper by Bitz and Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (and several colleagues), targets changes in the Pacific Ocean to explain the unexpected expansion of Antarctic sea ice between 2000 and 2014 — a trend that ran contrary to climate model projections.

This study suggests the expansion was a fluke of natural variability in the world’s largest ocean, which changed the atmosphere in ways that affected winds all the way down in the Antarctica (if winds blow floating sea ice outward from the continent, more ice can then fill the empty space, and Antarctic ice as a whole expands). But Meehl has cautioned that the cycle in question, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, plays out over decades, making it hard to be sure yet whether a turn in this cycle will correspond to Antarctic ice shrinkage. Bitz, too, said she is cautious for now about seizing on this explanation, noting that the sharp loss in Antarctic ice lagged behind a positive peak in the IPO by six to nine months, raising doubts about the connection. But you can bet that scientists are going to spend plenty of time trying to take this question apart — and that the analysis has just begun. Source: washingtonpost.com

Comment by Stanislav on February 16, 2017 at 6:51pm

Antarctic sea ice hits record low early data shows

Sea ice extent shrunk to 2.287 million square kilometres

15 February, 2017. Sea ice around Antarctica has shrunk to the smallest annual extent on record after years of resisting a trend of man-made global warming, preliminary U.S. satellite data showed on Tuesday.

Sea ice in Antarctica has reached a record low, beating out the last record set in 1997. (NASA/Associated Press)

Ice floating around the frozen continent usually melts to its smallest for the year around the end of February, the southern hemisphere summer, before expanding again as the autumn chill sets in.

Source: polarportal.dk

This year, sea ice extent contracted to 2.287 million square kilometres on Feb. 13, according to daily data from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

That extent is a fraction smaller than a previous low of 2.290 million square kilometres recorded on Feb. 27, 1997, in satellite records dating back to 1979. Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said he would wait for a few days' more measurements to confirm the record low. "But unless something funny happens, we're looking at a record minimum in Antarctica. Some people say it's already happened," he told Reuters. "We tend to be conservative by looking at five-day running averages."

Source: twitter.com/ZLabe

In many recent years, the average extent of sea ice around Antarctica has tended to expand despite the overall trend of global warming, blamed on a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly from burning fossil fuels. People sceptical of mainstream findings by climate scientists have often pointed to Antarctic sea ice as evidence against global warming. Some climate scientists have linked the paradoxical expansion to shifts in winds and ocean currents.

24 January, 2017

26 January, 2017

Pine Island Glacier has shed another block of ice into Antarctic waters. The loss was tiny compared to the icebergs that broke off in 2014 and 2015, but the event is further evidence of the ice shelf’s fragility.
Pine Island is one of the main glaciers responsible for moving ice from the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean. It already delivers plenty of ice to Pine Island Bay—about 79 cubic kilometers (19 cubic miles) of ice per year. But scientists watch this glacier closely because the evidence has been pointing to even faster loss of ice in the future. Such a retreat would lessen the shelf’s buttressing effect, allowing more inland ice to flow out to the ocean, where it ultimately melts and contributes to sea level rise.
The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured these images of Pine Island Glacier’s floating edge before and after the recent break. The top image shows the area on January 24, 2017, while the second image shows the same area on January 26. About a kilometer or two of ice appears to have calved (broken off) from the shelf’s front.

The animation above shows a wider view of the area. The sequence, composed from images acquired January 25–29 by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, shows the berg when it first broke and then as it drifts in the bay. According to Ian Howat, a glaciologist at Ohio State University, the event was about 10 times smaller than in July 2015, when a 30-kilometer-long (20-mile) rift developed below the ice surface, then broke through and calved an iceberg spanning 583 square kilometers (225 square miles).
“I think this event is the calving equivalent of an ‘aftershock’ following the much bigger event,” Howat said. “Apparently, there are weaknesses in the ice shelf—just inland of the rift that caused the 2015 calving—that are resulting in these smaller breaks.”
Although not visible in these images, more small rifts persist on Pine Island about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the ice front. One such rift was photographed on November 4, 2016, during a flight of NASA’s Operation IceBridge—an airborne science mission that makes annual flights over this area. Other rifts are less visible at the surface because they are growing upward from the basal (bottom) side of the shelf. Scientists expect that these rifts will result in more calving in the near future.
“Such ‘rapid fire’ calving does appear to be unusual for this glacier,” Howat said. But the phenomenon “fits into the larger picture of basal crevasses in the center of the ice shelf being eroded by warm ocean water, causing the ice shelf to break from the inside out.”

References and Related Reading

NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and MODIS data from the Level 1 and Atmospheres Active Distribution System (LAADS). Caption by Kathryn Hansen.

Source: earthobservatory.nasa.gov

"We've always thought of the Antarctic as the sleeping elephant starting to stir. Well, maybe it's starting to stir now," Serreze said.

World average temperatures climbed to a record high in 2016 for the third year in a row. Climate scientists say warming is causing more extreme days of heat, downpours and is nudging up global sea levels. At the other end of the planet, ice covering the Arctic Ocean has set repeated lows in recent years. In the northern winter, sea ice is growing in winter and is at the smallest extent for mid-February, at 13.927 million square kilometres. Combined, the extent of sea ice at both ends of the planet is about two million square kilometres less than the 1981-2010 averages for mid-February, roughly the size of Mexico or Saudi Arabia. Source: cbc.ca

Comment by Stanislav on February 11, 2017 at 8:07pm

The big melt: Global sea ice at record low

#Arctic sea ice extent for January 2017 was the lowest January in the 38-yr satellite record. Source: twitter.com/NSIDC

There is now less sea ice on Earth than at any time on record. Ice in the Arctic and Antarctic melted to record low levels in January, scientists reported this week.

Trends in sea ice thickness/volume are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize January sea ice thickness and volume from 1979 to 2017.

Graphic: Zachary Labe (@Zlabe). Source: sites.uci.edu

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that melts during the summer and refreezes in winter. It floats on top of the ocean.

Trends in sea ice thickness are another important indicator of Arctic climate change. While sea ice thickness observations are sparse, here we utilize the ocean and sea ice model, PIOMAS (Zhang and Rothrock, 2003), to visualize mean sea ice thickness from 1979 to 2017.

Graphic: Zachary Labe (@Zlabe). Source: sites.uci.edu

Arctic sea ice this January averaged 5.17 million square miles, the lowest for the month in the 38-year sea ice record, the National Snow and Ice Data Center said.

That is 100,000 square miles less than the previous January record low set just last year.

Sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere also tracked at record low levels for January 2017. #Antarctica. Source: twitter.com/NSIDC

January air temperatures climbed above average over nearly all of the Arctic Ocean, NASA said, continuing a pattern that started in fall. In some parts of the Arctic, temperatures reached a whopping 9 degrees above average for the month.

Latest PIOMAS (model, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated through January 2017).

Graphic: Zachary Labe (@Zlabe). Source: sites.uci.edu

At the bottom of the world, sea ice is also at all-time record low levels around Antarctica, the data center said. The lack of ice in the Antarctic, where it is currently summer, is most pronounced in the Amundsen Sea, where only a few scattered patches of ice remain.

Arctic sea ice extent for Jan 2017 was 1.26M sq km below the long-term average. Source: twitter.com/NSIDC

Sea ice in the Arctic affects wildlife such as polar bears, seals and walruses. It also helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. It can affect weather in the U.S.

Current simulated (PIOMAS; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice thickness and anomalies (1981-2010) updated through January 2017.

Graphic: Zachary Labe (@Zlabe). Source: sites.uci.edu

Latest PIOMAS (model; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated for January 2017).

Graphic: Zachary Labe (@Zlabe). Source: sites.uci.edu

The amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic has steadily declined over the past few decades because of man-made global warming, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Greenhouse gases emitted through human activities and the resulting increase in global mean temperatures are the most likely underlying cause of the sea ice decline," the snow and ice data center said. Sea ice thickness also substantially declined in the latter half of the 20th century, the snow and ice data center said.

Antarctic ice fluctuates wildly year to year, and the link to man-made global warming there is not clear, NASA ice expert Walt Meier said. Using paleoclimatic data, studies suggest sea ice is shrinking to levels not seen in thousands of years. Source: usatoday.com

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